Homestead Straight Talk Wireless 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – At Homestead, Kyle Larson is the premiere performer and on Sunday, the road to victory lane likely goes thru him. Larson has long performed at a super-elite level and probably the only person who can beat him, is himself. There’s nothing to not like about Larson. Larson’s been a standout performer at high-speed intermediates, and he’s been one of the best at high-wear intermediates having the best track type Total Speed Ranking since 2023. In 3 of the last 4 races held at high-wear intermediates going back to last year, Larson’s ranked #1 in terms of Total Speed Rankings.
Homestead Track History – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Homestead. At this south Florida track, Larson raced his way to victory lane in dominant fashion in 2022 and since 2015 minus last year’s crash and a 2019 engine failure, Larson has a 4.6 average finish. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Larson’s 2 for 2 at ranking #1. Last year, Larson was the class of the field but he beat himself. In the race, Larson started 5th, won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 96 laps, was running in 2nd on lap 211 but then on lap 213, Larson crashed into the sand barrels coming to pit road which marked the end of his race, leading to a 34th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked #1 with his speed over the segments being 1st, 1st, 4th and 3rd. In 2022, Larson smoked the field en route to victory lane. In the race, Larson won the two opening Stages, won the race, had a perfect Total Speed Ranking, had the best Green Flag Speed, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run, earned a perfect Driver Rating, had a 1.4 average running position and led 199 laps. In the race, Larson had a 10-second lead at times, and he even had to race hard at the end to earn his win since he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle which dropped him back to 5th with 50 to go. In 2021 when Homestead was visited early in his #5 tenure, Larson finished 6th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, led 5 laps, had a 4.8 average running position and then finished 4th overall.

William Byron
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – At Homestead, look for William Byron the 2021 winner to be tough to beat. Byron’s proven he can reach victory lane here; he’s been a standout performer at intermediate tracks and he’s one of the best at high-wear intermediates. Since 2023 at high-wear intermediates, Byron has the 2nd best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and an impressive 3.8 average finish minus Auto Club 2023 and this fall at Darlington. On Sunday, look for Byron to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Homestead Track History – William Byron is a former Homestead winner who’s been elite at this high-wear 1.5-mile track. Over the last four races, Byron has the best average finish (6.5, among drivers who competed in every race), the 2nd best average running position (5.9) and the 2nd best Driver Rating. Last year, Byron was one of the best. In the race, Byron finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a race best 3.6 average running position, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 3rd. In terms of speed stats, Byron ranked 2nd for speed Late In A Run and ranked 3rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Byron was one of the best but finished 12th. In the race, Byron won the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 32 laps, had a 6.5 average running position, earned the 3rd best driver rating and then finished 12th. For whatever reason, Byron just wasn’t at his best in the final Stage and he even had a slow pit stop during a green flag pit cycle where he had to backup to tighten a wheel. Byron’s 7th best Total Speed Ranking tells the tale of his afternoon with his speed over the segments being 2nd, 3rd, 12th and then 16th. In 2021, Byron was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Byron started deep in the field in 31st, finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 102 laps, earned the best driver rating, had the best average running position (3.9) and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 2nd, but I would really view it as first (others used pit strategy). In 2020, Byron finished 9th.

Ryan Blaney
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – Put Ryan Blaney high on your radar at Homestead. Blaney was one of the best last year en route to a runner-up and “Performance Wise” in 3 of the last 4, he’s been a top five contender. This year at high-speed intermediates, Blaney’s been one of the best and at high-wear intermediates going back to last year, Blaney’s Track Type Total Speed Ranking is tied for being the 5th fastest.
Homestead Track History – Ryan Blaney has showed up with speed at Homestead. Blaney was a standout performer last year en route to a 2nd and “Performance Wise” in 3 of the last 4 he’s been a top five performer. Last year, the #12 was a rocket and he looked to be the only driver who had anything for Larson prior to the #5’s demise. In the race, Blaney started 10th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 53 laps, earned the best Driver Rating, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Blaney was one of the best but finished an asterisk mark 17th. In the race, Blaney finished 9th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2 but then in the final Stage during green flag pit stops, he spun on an access road leaving pit road and brought out the caution. On lap 201 just prior to that, Blaney was running in 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Blaney ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and 7th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, Blaney finished 8th in Stage #2, was running in 15th on lap 194, but then a few laps later he had contact with Aric Almirola and got quite a bit of damage which led to him limping home to finish 29th. In 2020, Blaney finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 70 laps, had a 3rd place average running position and then finished 3rd. In terms of speed analytics, Blaney ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 3rd best.

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