Homestead Straight Talk Wireless 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Homestead for the Straight Talk Wireless 400. Homestead is a unique symmetrical 1.5-mile track where tire wear is extreme, and pit strategy consists of taking 4 tires every stop. The high-line is the fast-line, and the best of the best have consistently shined here over the years.
In terms of correlation, I like to study high-wear intermediates, and high-speed 1.5-mile tracks. I will note, Homestead is a pretty unique beast but there’s takeaways from both groups. Here’s High-Wear Intermediate Track Total Speed Rankings Since 2023 and 2024 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Total Speed Rankings.
On Saturday, practice was held for Homestead. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agendas. Make sure you check out our Homestead Practice Notes and Homestead 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s a look at Homestead Group Practice Speed Rankings.
Here’s the Homestead Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Homestead Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 2nd/ Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Homestead Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson is the premiere performer at Homestead and on Sunday, he’ll be the driver to beat. Larson has performed at a super-elite level here and probably the only driver who can beat him, is himself, as displayed last year. There’s nothing to not like about Larson. Larson’s been a standout performer at high-speed intermediates, and he’s arguably the best at high tire-wear intermediates, having the best track type Total Speed Ranking since 2023. In 3 of the last 4 races held at high-wear intermediates going back to last year, Larson’s ranked #1 in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In practice, Larson was a stopwatch standout and in Group B he ranked 2nd for 15,20 and 25-lap averages.
Homestead Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Homestead. Larson raced his way to victory lane in dominant fashion in 2022 and since 2015 minus last year’s crash and a 2019 engine failure, Larson has a 4.6 average finish. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Larson ranks #1, having fielded the fastest car in both races. Last year, Larson was the class of the field, but also the author of his demise. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 96 laps, was running in 2nd on lap 211 but then on lap 213, Larson crashed into the sand barrels coming to pit road, leading to a 34th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked #1. In 2022, Larson smoked the field en route to victory lane. In the race, Larson won the two opening Stages, won the race, had a perfect Total Speed Ranking, had the best Green Flag Speed, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run, earned a perfect Driver Rating, had a 1.4 average running position and led 199 laps. In the race, Larson had a 10-second lead at times, and he even had to race hard at the end to earn his win since he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle which dropped him back to 5th with 50 to go. In 2021, Larson finished 4th.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $14,000
Further Recommended Reading = Homestead Quick Rankings, Homestead Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Homestead Scoring Projections, FanDuel Homestead Scoring Projections
2) Tyler Reddick
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Homestead Fantasy Spin – Tyler Reddick is an elite rim-rider and if he’s going to make the championship #4, he’ll need to come up big at Homestead and likely need to win. Reddick’s been a super-elite performer at this high-wear intermediate and between NASCAR’s top two divisions, Reddick’s finished in the top 4 in six of his seven starts. In Cup minus 2022, Reddick has a 3rd place average finish. Since 2023 at high-wear intermediates, Reddick has the 4th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking. In practice, the #45 was strong and Reddick was happy with his car.
Homestead Track Record Breakdown – Tyler Reddick has been a standout performer at Homestead. Reddick’s won here twice in the Xfinity series and in 3 of his 4 Cup races he’s finished in the top 4. Last year, Reddick paced himself over the course of the afternoon and had a strong showing. In the race, Reddick finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, had a 6.9 average running position, earned the 4th best Driver Rating and then finished 4th overall. In terms of speed stats, Reddick ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and then 7th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022 in the #8, Reddick started the race strong but then fell off over the course of the afternoon and then crashed late which led to his 35th. In the race, Reddick started 7th, finished 4th in Stage #1, had a slow pit stop during the Stage #1 caution which dropped him from 4th to outside the top ten, had another slow pit stop during green flag pit stops in Stage #2 that dropped him off the lead lap (was around the mid-teens prior to that) and then late in the race on lap 243 while running in the mid 20’s and struggling, Reddick crashed. In the race, Reddick had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Reddick wasn’t all that great, but when the money was on the line, Reddick moved up to the high-line and maneuvered his way to a 2nd place finish. In the race, Reddick started 35th and had a 17.6 average running position. In terms of speed stats, Reddick was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run, and his Total Speed Ranking was the 15th best, but take note in the final segment he ranked 6th. In 2020, Reddick was impressive and finished 4th.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $12,500
3) William Byron
Start 25th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Homestead Fantasy Spin – William Byron is red hot and at Homestead, look for the 2021 winner to be a factor. Byron’s proven he can reach victory lane here; he’s been a standout performer at intermediate tracks and he’s one of the best at high-wear intermediates. Since 2023 at high-wear intermediates, Byron has the 2nd best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and an impressive 3.8 average finish minus Auto Club 2023 and this fall at Darlington. Although Byron is starting 25th, take note when he won here, he started 31st. In Group B, Byron ranked #1 for 10,15,20,25 and 30-lap averages.
Homestead Track Record Breakdown – William Byron is a former Homestead winner who’s been elite at this high-wear 1.5-mile track. Over the last four races, Byron has the best average finish (6.5, among drivers who competed in every race), the 2nd best average running position (5.9) and the 2nd best Driver Rating. In the Next Gen over the last two races, Byron ranks 4th in terms of Speed Rankings. Last year, Byron was one of the best. In the race, Byron finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a race best 3.6 average running position, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 3rd. In terms of speed stats, Byron ranked 2nd for speed Late In A Run and ranked 3rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Byron was one of the best but finished 12th. In the race, Byron won the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 32 laps, had a 6.5 average running position, earned the 3rd best driver rating and then finished 12th. For whatever reason, Byron just wasn’t at his best in the final Stage and he even had a slow pit stop during a green flag pit cycle where he had to backup to tighten a wheel. Byron’s 7th best Total Speed Ranking tells the tale of his afternoon with his speed over the segments being 2nd, 3rd, 12th and then 16th. In 2021, Byron was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Byron started deep in the field in 31st, finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 102 laps, earned the best driver rating, had the best average running position (3.9) and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 2nd, but I would really view it as first (others used pit strategy).
DraftKings $10,300/ FanDuel $13,000
