Martinsville Xfinity 500 Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Ross Chastain
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – At Martinsville, don’t overlook Ross Chastain, the innovator of the “Hail Melon.” In the Next Gen, Chastain has a pair of top 5’s, a 10.0 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 14 every race. Heading into the weekend, I would view Chastain as a top ten contender but not get overly bullish.
Martinsville Track History – Ross Chastain has run well at Martinsville and in the Next Gen, Chastain has a 10.0 average finish, the 11th best Driver Rating and the 13th best Speed Ranking. Over the last three, Chastain’s finished just south of the top ten in either 13th or 14th. This spring, Chastain finished 14th, had a 12.7 average running position, the 12th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 9th for Speed Late In A Run. In fall 2023, Chastain finished 14th, had a 16.5 average running position and then just ranked 22nd for Total Speed Rankings. Keep in mind, the #1 team was sort of in an ongoing slump at the time. Last spring, Chastain was OK. In the race he started 34th, finished 13th, had a 16.8 average running position and had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022 at Martinsville, Ross Chastain was a standout performer and was one of just two drivers who swept the top five. In fall 2022, we all know about the legendary “Hail Melon.” In the race, Chastain finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 9th in Stage #2, had a 10.5 average running position and then finished 4th. I’ll note, Chastain didn’t even have an incident free race and on lap 273 while battling Keselowski for 8th, he spun the #6 which led to him pitting when much of the field didn’t have to. On lap 458 just prior to the last caution coming out for the afternoon, Chastain was running in 12th. On lap 495 just before executing his “Hail Melon”, Chastain was running in 11th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Chastain ranked 11th. In spring 2022, Chastain started 27th but drove up to a 5th place finish.

Ryan Preece
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – If you’re looking for a dark horse at Martinsville who can come up big, don’t overlook Ryan Preece. In the #41 over the last three races, Preece has the 10th best Driver Rating, the 10th best average running position (13.3), the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and the 12th best average finish (14.7). I’ll also note, many of those stats still underrate what he’s done since 2023. To play it safe, I would view Preece as a mid-teens driver who’ll have upside.
Martinsville Track History – As you just read, Ryan Preece has been pretty sporty at Martinsville in recent races in the #41. This spring, Preece had one of his best 2024 performances. In the race, Preece started 22nd, had a 15.3 average running position and then finished 9th. In terms of speed stats, Preece ranked 13th for Speed Late In A Run and 16th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, on lap 396 before the late caution came out, Preece was in 13th, so it did benefit him. Last fall, the #41 was fast but for whatever reason, Preece simply wasn’t at his best down the final stretch and finished 20th. In the race, Preece started 9th, finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, had an 11.1 average running position and had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking. His speed over the segments tells the story with him going 8th, 8th, 14th and then 27th over the final segment. Last spring, Preece was impressive but finished an asterisk mark 15th. In the race, Preece started on the pole, won Stage #1, led 135 laps (the first 135) but then in Stage #2 while leading he was caught speeding on pit road which dropped him back to the high-twenties, in which he never fully bounced back. When the checkered flag waved, Preece finished 15th. In terms of speed stats, Preece ranked 10th for Total Speed Rankings and Green Flag Speed. Over the first segment prior to getting busted speeding, Preece had the fastest car on the track.

Brad Keselowski
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – Put Brad Keselowski on your radar this weekend but with how the #6 team is running right now, pick him at your own risk. In the Playoffs, he’s finished 17th or worse in 7 of the 8 races. At Martinsville, Keselowski’s a 2-time winner and in 11 of the last 17 races, he’s crossed the finish line in the top five. Times have been tough for him lately with Keselowski finishing 17th or worse over the last five (finished 4th in fall 2022, DQ’ed post-race) but that should help give him some “out of sync” potential. Keselowski wasn’t good this spring but last year he was 2 for 2 at being a top five contender despite finishing 24th or worse in both races.
Martinsville Track History – Martinsville ranks among Brad Keselowski’s best tracks. He’s a two-time winner and since 2016 (17 races), Keselowski has 11 top fives and only four results outside the top ten. In the Next Gen over the last five, Keselowski ranks 12th in terms of speed. This spring, Brad Keselowski was quite uncompetitive. In the race, Keselowski finished 24th, had a 20.5 average running position and ranked 23rd in terms of Speed Rankings. Last fall, Keselowski was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 33rd. In the race, Keselowski finished 5th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2 but then early in the final Stage pit strategy had him back in the teens, and he was then collected in a crash which led to his DNF 33rd. Over the first two segments of the race that were incident free for him, Keselowski had speed rankings of 10th and 7th. Last spring, Keselowski finished 24th, but I wouldn’t read into that result and “Performance Wise” I think he was a top five contender. In the race, Keselowski finished 5th in Stage #2, led 7 laps and was running in 5th on lap 282 before he was burned by a caution on lap 301 which dropped him back to about 20th. With that issue with a quarter of the race remaining, many of his stats are highly skewed but he looked good prior to his problem and then struggled back in traffic like most. In fall 2022, Keselowski had a great race and finished 4th, despite his afternoon not being incident free. I’ll NOTE, IN THE RESULTS COLUMN YOU’LL SEE AN UGLY DQ 36th, but I’m ultimately viewing him as the 4th place finisher. In the race, Keselowski finished 6th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2 but then right at the start of the final Stage while battling for 8th, Chastain spun him. Keselowski battled back and was legitimately up to 7th before the late caution came out. Additionally, Keselowski had a 7.4 average running position, the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 7th for speed late in a run.

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