Martinsville Xfinity 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Daniel Suarez
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – At Martinsville, I have low expectations for Daniel Suarez and to play it safe, I would view him as a high-teens or worse driver. Suarez had some success here early in his career but in 9 of the last 10 races he’s finished 17th or worse, so that’s pretty telling things likely won’t go well. Over the last four Martinsville races minus last fall, Suarez has a 17.0 average finish.
Martinsville Track History – As you just read, Martinsville typically doesn’t play out well for Daniel Suarez and in the Next Gen he’s finished 17th or worse in 4 of the 5 races and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 18th. This spring, Suarez just wasn’t good. In the race, Suarez started 21st, had a 19.2 average running position, ranked 24th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and then finished 22nd. I’ll note, Suarez did lead 13 laps via pit strategy, but those certainly weren’t due to “Performance.” Last fall, Suarez showed teens potential but crashed early in the last Stage. On lap 271 during the restart for the final Stage he was in 16th but then on lap 274 he crashed which marked the end of his race, leading to his 34th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Suarez ranked 17th. Last spring, Suarez looked great but finished 17th. In the race, Suarez started 2nd, finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 8th in Stage #2, led 7 laps, had a 6.2 average running position and ranked 8th for Green Flag Speed and Total Speed Rankings. To close out the race, Suarez just dropped back like a rock. Suarez was the leader on lap 301, was in 6th with 50 to go but then he had a rapid free fall back to his 17th. In fall 2022, Suarez was solid. In the race, Suarez finished 10th in Stage #1, finished 10th in Stage #2, had a 9.5 average running position and then finished 12th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Suarez was tied for having the 9th best Total Speed Ranking.

Austin Cindric
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – Austin Cindric might be able to sneak in a good finish at Martinsville but picking him is ultimately up for the risk takers. At Martinsville, Cindric has two top 11 finishes on his resume but then in the other three he’s finished 23rd or worse with no middle ground. Cindric was pretty bad this spring en route to a 23rd and at this point in the post-season, probably all of Penske’s best resources are now aligned with their Playoff drivers. Heading into the weekend, I would view Cindric as about a 20th place driver who might have some upside.
Martinsville Track History – Austin Cindric is capable of running well at Martinsville and in 2 of his 5 starts he’s finished in the top 12. This spring, Cindric was pretty mediocre and finished one lap down in 23rd. In the race, Cindric started 14th, had a 15.6 average running position, led 6 laps via pit strategy and ranked 17th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll also note, Cindric was in 17th on lap 396, which was one lap before the overtime caution came out, so he was marginally better than his result. Last fall, I don’t know how he did it but Cindric was solid. In the race, Cindric started 21st, had a 14.3 average running position, had the 11th best Speed Ranking and then finished 9th. In spring 2023, Cindric was junk and finished 33rd. In the race, Cindric had a 32.9 average running position and ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Cindric finished 26th in the fall and then 11th in the spring (9.9 average running position, 12th best Total Speed Ranking).

Harrison Burton
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – Harrison Burton might have some surprise upside at Martinsville, but that’s only for the extreme risk takers. Burton has an ugly resume, and he finished a clunker 33rd this spring but over the last two fall races, he’s somehow legit ran well and has a pair of top 15’s (11th and 15th). I don’t think Burton can do it again, but he’s already done it twice before. That said, I would just view Burton as a +25 driver.
Martinsville Track History – At Martinsville, there’s been a spring Harrison Burton and a fall Harrison Burton. “Spring Harrison Burton” is 3 for 3 at finishing 26th or worse, “Fall Harrison Burton” is 2 for 2 at finishing in the top 15. Over his five starts which outline the Next Gen era, Burton has the 30th best Speed Ranking and a 22.8 average finish. This spring, Burton was quite bad en route to his 33rd. That sounds like an asterisk mark result, but he was just that bad. In the race, Burton had a 32.4 average running position, ranked 34th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and earned the 35th best Driver Rating. Last fall, Burton legitimately had a good afternoon for himself and finished 15th. Burton was even involved in an accident on lap 106 while running in the 20’s which dropped him back to last. I’ll note, it was a legitimate rebound. Additionally, Burton had the 25th best Total Speed Ranking and a 25.1 average running position. Last spring, Burton was bad and finished 29th. I’ll note, Burton’s race wasn’t incident free and on lap 133 while running in 26th he spun and brought out the first caution (didn’t hit anything). Additionally, Burton had a 29.2 average running position and ranked 34th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Burton finished 11th in the fall and then 26th in the spring.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier