Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Martin Truex Jr.
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – At Phoenix in his #19 full-time farewell, hopefully Truex will go out on a high note. Truex is a strong shorter-flat track performer who was great this spring, so I think he has solid odds to go out on a high note. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Truex has the 4th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking but take note he’s had a ton of problems at these venues.
Phoenix Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has been strong at Phoenix. Truex raced his way to victory lane in spring 2021 and over the last 14 races, Truex has finished in the top seven 57% of the time. This spring, Truex had a strong showing. In the race, Truex finished 10th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 55 laps and then finished 7th. I’ll note, Truex used out of sync pit strategy late, so reading into many of his stats can be misleading. Last fall, the #19 was fast and Truex ranked among the best. In the race, Truex started 2nd, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 5.2 average running position, earned the 7th best Driver Rating and then finished 6th. In terms of speed stats, Truex ranked 6th for Total Speed Rankings and Green Flag Speed. In the three Next Gen Phoenix races prior to that, things weren’t pretty and Truex was 3 for 3 at finishing 15th or worse. Last spring, Truex didn’t run well and finished 17th, which is unfortunately legit. In the race, Truex had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking, an 18th place average running position and was running in 18th before late cautions broke out. In fall 2022, Truex was pretty sporty, but he finished an asterisk mark 15th. In the race, Truex finished 5th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 but then in the final Stage during the Bowman caution around lap 267 while he was running around 8th, Truex was caught speeding on pit road. In terms of speed stats, Truex had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 6th for speed late in a run. In spring 2022, Truex was a top ten contender but finished an asterisk mark 35th. In the final Stage on lap 219 while running in 12th he crashed. In 2021, Truex finished 2nd in the fall and then raced his way to victory lane in the spring.

Alex Bowman
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Alex Bowman has long been an enigma to me at Phoenix. Bowman looked like Superman back in fall 2016 when he drove the #88 but since then, he’s only cracked the top ten once and it was just a 9th last spring. Overall in 7 of the last 9 Phoenix races, Bowman’s finished between 13th to 20th, so I’m just going to expect more of the same this weekend. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Bowman has the 16th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and his average finish is an ugly 22.8.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix since 2020 minus fall 2022, Alex Bowman has a 15.1 average finish. In terms of Phoenix Next Gen Total Speed Rankings, Bowman ranks 16th. This spring, Bowman was less than impressive. In the race, Bowman finished 20th, ranked 20th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and had a 17.8 average running position. It was just an ugly afternoon for the #48 crew. Last fall, Bowman was a high-teens performer. In the race, Bowman finished 17th, had a 19.1 average running position and had the 21st best Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Bowman snuck in a 9th. I will note, he was in 11th with 17 to go before late mayhem ensued. Additionally, Bowman had a 12.4 average running position and ranked 12th for Total Speed Rankings. In fall 2022, Bowman looked like a mid-teens performer, but he finished an asterisk mark 34th. On lap 267 while he was running in 15th, Bowman crashed. In spring 2022 in the Next Gen’s debut, Bowman finished 14th, had a 10.3 average running position and had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking. In the three Phoenix races prior to that, Bowman had results of 13th, 16th and 14th.

Brad Keselowski
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Brad Keselowski and the #6 team have had a post-season collapse, so picking him with any level of confidence right now is hard. That said, he might be decent. He finished 4th this spring, was a top ten contender in both races last year and in 4 of the 6 races at shorter-flat tracks this year he’s finished in the top ten, but his two non-top tens were the last two. On Sunday, I would view Keselowski as a teens driver who’ll have top ten upside.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix, Brad Keselowski has finished 15th or worse in 4 of the last 5 races but “Performance Wise” over the last three he’s been top ten good. This spring, Keselowski was solid. In the race, Keselowski started 18th, finished 9th in Stage #2, had a 9.8 average running position and then finished 4th overall. In 2023, Keselowski had a pair of misleading results but “Performance Wise” he was 2 for 2 at being a top ten performer. Last fall, Keselowski had a hot rod but finished an asterisk mark 15th. In the race, Keselowski started in the rear of the field after missing qualifying, but he didn’t have any trouble advancing in the running order. Keselowski was up to 18th at the end of Stage #1, finished 9th in Stage #2, was in 10th with 5 to go but then in the closing laps, Keselowski was reported to have gotten into the wall which led to him fading to his 15th. In terms of speed stats, Keselowski ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Keselowski finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a 6.3 average running position and was running in 7th with 14 to go, before late cautions/chaos broke out which led to his asterisk mark 18th. In terms of speed stats, Keselowski ranked 8th across Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. Keselowski just had a rapid free fall during a late restart.

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