Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – At Phoenix, Austin Dillon does a pretty good job at coming home with solid finishes, by his low standards. Dillon stunk it up this spring but since 2020 #2, he’s finished between 12th to 18th in 6 of the 8 races and has a 16th place average finish minus this spring. This year at shorter-flat tracks minus Phoenix and New Hampshire, Dillon has a 12.5 average finish.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix over the last four races minus this spring, Dillon has a 13.6 average finish. This spring, Dillon had a tough race and finished 32nd. On lap 6 while running way back in the 30’s, Dillon was caught up in a multi-car wreck that dropped him a few laps down and he has doomed from that point on leading to his 32nd. Last fall, Dillon closed the race strong and finished 12th. That said, Dillon didn’t run well for much of it, having a 21.8 average running position and ranked 24th for Green Flag Speed and Total Speed Rankings. To close out the race over the final long run, he closed strong. Last spring, Dillon finished 16th but it’s hard to say he was that good. For the afternoon his average running position was 25.3 and with 17 to go before late mayhem ensued, he was in 20th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Dillon ranked 27th. In 2022, Dillon finished 13th in the fall and then in the spring he finished 21st but take note he was wrecked on the last lap while running in 7th.

Austin Cindric
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Austin Cindric is a driver well down the depth chart who’ll have upside for the risk takers out there. Cindric’s track record at Phoenix is quite bad but Gateway is arguably the track with the most correlation and he raced his way to victory lane there this summer. This year at shorter-flat tracks outside of Gateway, Cindric has a best finish of 19th and his overall Shorter-Flat Track Total Speed Ranking ranks 23rd. To play it safe, I would just view him as a 20’s driver who might have upside.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix, Austin Cindric hasn’t run well and in 4 of his 5 races, he’s finished 24th or worse. This spring, Cindric started 34th and then on lap 6 near the very back, he was collected in a multi-car wreck which marked the end of his race, leading to a 36th. Last fall, Austin Cindric was pretty bad, but he wasn’t quite 35th place bad. On lap 134 while running around 26th, he made an unexpected pit stop after getting into the wall and breaking his toe link. In spring 2023, Cindric finished 25th, had a 26.8 average running position and had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Cindric finished a legit 11th in the fall and then 24th in the spring.

Erik Jones
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones looked sporty this spring at Phoenix and had perhaps his best “Performance” of the year but with the current competitive state of the #43, I would keep expectations low and just view him as a 20’s performer. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Jones ranks 28th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and has a 24th place average finish over the combined races.
Phoenix Track History – Phoenix hasn’t played out well for Erik Jones recently and in 8 of the last 9 races, he’s finished 20th or worse. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings over the last five, Jones ranks 21st. This spring, Jones legit looked sporty but finished an asterisk mark 31st. Prior to the race, Jones tested here so the #43 team was well prepared. In the race, Jones started 4th, finished 4th in Stage #1 but then during the Stage #1 caution he had a slow pit stop that dropped him outside the top ten. When Stage #2 ended, Jones finished about 13th. Then in the last Stage on lap 221 while running in 8th, Jones got into the wall after contact from the #23 which had him rapidly dropping in the running order and then making an unexpected pit stop which doomed him to a 31st. Last fall, Jones was sporty but finished 20th. In the race, Jones finished 8th in Stage # 1, 10th in Stage #2 and had a 10.5 average running position. To close out the race, he simply wasn’t at his best and faded. In spring 2023, Jones had a 17.9 average running position and then finished 21st. In fall 2022, Jones finished 14th and then in the spring, Jones finished 25th but I’ll note that’s an asterisk mark result. On lap 286 while he was running in 15th, he had a flat tire and crashed.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier