Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be crowning the 2024 Cup champion at Phoenix! The stakes couldn’t be higher, and the drivers who’ll be battling it out in the winner take all (or highest finisher) battle royal are Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick and William Byron. I joke the championship four have an extra +100 horsepower, and for whatever reason championship contenders always seem to step it up to the next level in the season finale.
On Friday, NASCAR held an extended practice session for Phoenix. Make sure you check out our Phoenix Practice Notes and our Phoenix 5,10,15,20 and 25 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s Phoenix Qualifying Results.
Phoenix Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Ryan Blaney
Start 17th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Phoenix Outlook – Ryan Blaney will be tough to beat at Phoenix as he vies for the championship repeat. In the Next Gen in the desert, Blaney’s been a standout performer, having the best Next Gen Speed Ranking, the best average finish (3.0), the best driver rating and he’s 5 for 5 at finishing in the top five. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Blaney’s been a super-elite performer. Blaney won at Iowa, should’ve won at Gateway (ran out of gas on the last lap while leading), was wrecked while running in 2nd at New Hampshire, finished 5th at Phoenix and then had results of 11th and 19th at Richmond (Just not a great track for him). In terms of speed at shorter-flat tracks this year, Blaney has the 2nd best Track Type Total Speed Ranking. In practice, the #12 was a rocket Blaney ranked #1 in terms of 5,10 and 15-lap averages. On Sunday, Blaney will start 17th. Last year, Blaney took home the title from the 14th place starting position, so don’t hit the panic button about that.
Phoenix Track Record Breakdown – Ryan Blaney’s never won at Phoenix, but he’s performed at a super-elite level. Blaney currently has six straight top fives and in 10 of the last 11 races he’s finished in the top ten. Going back to 2019 minus spring 2020, Blaney’s average finish is 4.1. In the Next Gen, Blaney ranks #1 for average finish (3.0), driver rating and Next Gen Speed Rankings. This spring, Blaney started 16th, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 6th in Stage #2 and then finished 5th overall. In terms of speed stats, Blaney ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and then 5th for Total Speed Rankings. Last fall en route to taking home the title, the #12 was fast. In the race, Blaney started 15th, finished 10th in Stage #1, finished 6th in Stage #2, earned the 5th best Driver Rating and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed stats, Blaney had the 2nd fastest car on the track over the last quarter of the race, ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Blaney ran well throughout and then snuck in a 2nd at the end. I’ll note, with 17 to go before late cautions came out, Blaney was poised to finish in 6th. Over the three races prior to that, Blaney had results of 2nd, 4th and 4th.
DraftKings $11,200/ FanDuel $14,000
Further Recommended Reading = Phoenix Quick Rankings, Phoenix Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Phoenix Scoring Projections, FanDuel Phoenix Scoring Projections
2) Christopher Bell
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Phoenix Outlook – Christopher Bell isn’t competing for the championship at Phoenix, but he’ll be racing for revenge after feeling cheated out of a “Final Four” spot. Bell smoked the field this spring racing his way to victory lane and in 2024 at shorter-flat tracks, Bell’s been the premiere performer. In 2024 on this track type, Bell has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking, the best average finish (4.2), the best average running position and the best Driver Rating by a wide margin.
Phoenix Track Record Breakdown – At Phoenix, Christopher Bell has been strong. Bell raced his way to victory lane this spring in impressive fashion and in 4 of the 6 races prior to that, Bell finished between 6th to 10th. In the Next Gen at Phoenix, Bell ranks 5th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. This spring, the #20 was stout. In the race, Bell started 13th, won Stage #2, had a slow pit stop to begin the final Stage dropping him from 1st to 10th, but then down the stretch to close out, the #20 hit the afterburners and Bell drove up thru the pack, racing his way to victory lane. In the race, Bell led 50 laps, earned the best Driver Rating and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Bell was likely one of the best, but he finished an asterisk mark 36th after having a brake failure. In the race, Bell started 13th, finished 9th in Stage #1, was up to 5th on lap 102 but then on lap 110 while running in 5th, Bell had his brake failure and slammed into the wall hard. Last spring, Bell finished 6th but take note he performed better than his result. In the race, Bell finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, had a 4.8 average running position and was poised to likely finish in 3rd before late cautions broke out. In terms of speed stats, Bell ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and 4th for Total Speed Rankings.
DraftKings $10,300/ FanDuel $13,000
3) Joey Logano
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Phoenix Outlook – At Phoenix, look for two-time Cup champion Joey Logano to have a rocket underneath him and be a factor as he vies for his 3rd championship. The #22 team has had two weeks to focus ahead, so I have no doubt the #22 will be a finely tuned machine. At Phoenix, Logano is a 3-time winner and in the Next Gen his Speed Ranking ranks 11th, despite having a few tough recent races. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Logano has had quite a few problems, but he’s had some strong performances with his Speed Ranking being the 8th fastest.
Phoenix Track Record Breakdown – Joey Logano is an elite-performer at Phoenix. He’s a three-time winner and since 2019 minus this spring, Logano has a 7.4 average finish. This spring, Logano was just bad. In the race, Logano started 23rd, finished in the mid 20’s in Stage #1, finished about 21st in Stage #2 and then in the final Stage while running in the mid 20’s, he was wrecked. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Logano ranked 25th. Last fall, Logano was operating like he was in “Early Vacation Mode” and finished 18th. In spring 2023 when the new rules package made its debut, Logano didn’t look good for much of the race but at the end he rallied to finish 11th. In fall 2022 en route to taking home the title, Logano was stout and with his “wingman” Blaney, he had the field covered. In the race, Logano won the pole, won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 1.9 average running position, led 187 laps and earned the best driver rating by a wide margin. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Logano was tied for being the fastest. In spring 2022, Logano finished 9th in Stage #1, 10th in Stage #2, had an 8.5 average running position and then finished 8th overall. In fall 2021, Logano raced like he was in “Early Vacation Mode” and finished 11th. In the three races prior to that, Logano had results of 2nd, 3rd and 1st.
DraftKings $10,800/ FanDuel $12,500
