Homestead Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon was an absolute bust last year at Homestead but historically, it’s been a great track for him. Prior to 2024’s abysmal 25th place showing, Dillon had 9 straight top 14’s with his average finish over that stretch being 9.9. Heading into the weekend, I would view Dillon as a teen’s driver who might very well burn you.
Homestead Track History – Homestead has historically been a great track for Austin Dillon as you read above. In the Next Gen over the three races, Dillon ranks 10th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and also 10th for Average Finish (13.0), despite having a clunker performance last fall. Last year, Dillon had a typical 2024 afternoon for himself and stunk it up. In the race, Dillon finished 25th, earned the 23rd best Driver Rating, had a 22.9 average running position and ranked 20th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Dillon was a top ten mainstay. In the race, Dillon finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 9th in Stage #2, had an 8.8 average running position and then finished 10th overall. In terms of speed stats, Dillon ranked 6th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 10th best Total speed Ranking. Over the four races prior to that, Dillon had results of 4th, 12th, 7th and 8th.

Ty Gibbs
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – At Homestead, pick Ty Gibbs at your own risk. Gibbs has run well in both of his Homestead starts but with how things are going for him, he’s a high liability driver who’ll likely burn you. Last year at high-wear intermediates, Gibbs ranked 12th in terms of Total Speed Rankings.
Homestead Track History – Last fall at Homestead, Ty Gibbs showed potential but finished 36th. In the race, Gibbs started 14th, finished about 17th in Stage #1, finished about 13th in Stage #2 but then early in the final Stage he no longer had 4th gear, which marked the end of his race. In the 2nd segment prior to his problem, Gibbs ranked as having the 14th fastest car on the track. In 2023, Gibbs had a strong showing. In the race, Gibbs started 9th, finished 10th in Stage #1, finished 8th in Stage #2, earned the 7th best Driver Rating and then finished 7th. In terms of speed stats, Gibbs ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and then 6th for Total Speed Rankings.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – At Homestead, I’m going to view Stenhouse as a 20’s driver who’ll have teens potential. Stenhouse currently has back-to-back 20’s here and overall in the Next Gen, he ranks 22nd in terms of Next Gen average finishes (21.0) and 23rd in terms of Speed. Last year at high-wear intermediates, Stenhouse finished in the low 20’s every race and had a 22.0 average finish.
Homestead Track History – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been pretty consistent at Homestead and in 7 of the last 8 races, he’s finished between 13th to 21st. Last year, Stenhouse finished 21st. Additionally, Stenhouse had a 19.5 average running position and ranked 19th in terms of speed. In 2023, Stenhouse finished a clunker 27th. I’ll note, that’s an asterisk mark result. On lap 77 while running in 19th, Stenhouse got into the wall which broke his toe link. In terms of Total Speed Rankings for the afternoon, Stenhouse ranked 29th. In 2022, Stenhouse finished 15th, had a 17.2 average running position and had the 18th best Total Speed Ranking.

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