Homestead Straight Talk Wireless 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Ryan Blaney
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – Ryan Blaney is a super-elite performer at Homestead who’ll be tough to beat. Blaney currently has back-to-back runner-ups, so there’s no doubt he’s poised to be a top contender. “Performance Wise” in 4 of the last 5 Homestead races, Blaney’s been a top five performer. Last year at high-wear intermediates, the #12 was fast and Blaney had the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking (wasn’t scored for Darlington #2 due to his opening lap crash).
Homestead Track History – Ryan Blaney has been a standout performer at Homestead and currently has back-to-back 2nd’s. In the Next Gen, Blaney ranks #1 in Speed Rankings and ranks 3rd in terms of average finish (7.0). Last year, Blaney was a stout but came up short after getting passed in the last turn, leading to his 2nd. In the race, Blaney started 20th, finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 47 laps and earned the 3rd best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Blaney ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings, #1 for Green Flag Speed and then 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, the #12 was a rocket and he looked to be the only driver who had anything for Larson prior to the #5’s demise. In the race, Blaney started 10th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 53 laps, earned the best Driver Rating, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Blaney was one of the best but finished an asterisk mark 17th. In the race, Blaney finished 9th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2 but then in the final Stage during green flag pit stops, he spun on an access road leaving pit road and brought out the caution. On lap 201 just prior to that, Blaney was running in 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Blaney ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and 7th for Total Speed Rankings.

Kyle Larson
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Homestead and on Sunday in the Straight Talk Wireless 400, the road to victory lane likely goes thru him. The high-line is the fast line, and Larson is the premiere performer at running that groove. At Homestead, I would argue the only person who can beat Larson, is himself, and he’s managed to do that in back-to-back races in embarrassing fashion. “Performance Wise” in the Next Gen at Homestead, I would argue Larson should really be 3 for 3 in the win column, but he’s only won once. Last year at high-wear intermediates, Larson ranked 5th in terms of Total Speed Rankings despite having problems in 2 of the 3 races. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Homestead Track History – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Homestead. Larson raced his way to victory lane in dominant fashion in 2022 and since 2015 minus 2023’s crash and a 2019 engine failure, Larson has a 5.8 average finish. In the Next Gen, Larson ranks 2nd in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings but take note in 2 of the 3 races, he’s ranked #1 for Speed. Last year, the #5 looked stout but the race was anything but incident free for Larson and he finished a disappointing 13th. In the race, Larson started 13th, was up to 3rd on lap 10, was in 2nd on lap 47 but then that lap, Larson had a tire go down and scrubbed the wall, which brought out a caution. To close out the race, Larson looked great and was up to 2nd with 13 to go but then when he was doing a pass on Blaney for the lead, he got too aggressive and spun out. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and then 9th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Larson was arguably the class of the field, but he beat himself. In the race, Larson started 5th, won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 96 laps, was running in 2nd on lap 211 but then on lap 213, Larson crashed into the sand barrels coming to pit road which marked the end of his race, leading to a 34th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked #1 with his speed over the segments being 1st, 1st, 4th and 3rd. In 2022, Larson smoked the field en route to victory lane. In the race, Larson won the two opening Stages, won the race, had a perfect Total Speed Ranking, had the best Green Flag Speed, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run, earned a perfect Driver Rating, had a 1.4 average running position and led 199 laps.

Tyler Reddick
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – Tyler Reddick, the defending Homestead winner will be tough to beat. Reddick is an elite rim-rider and he’s thrived at this high-wear 1.5-mile track. On the Cup level at Homestead minus 2022, Reddick has finished in the top 4 every race with his average finish being 2.5. Finding speed at high-wear intermediates is an art, and in 2024 at these venues, Reddick was tied for being the 2nd fastest in terms of Total Speed Rankings. On Sunday, look for Reddick to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Homestead Track History – Tyler Reddick has been a standout performer at Homestead. Reddick won here last year in Cup, he’s won here twice in the Xfinity series and between NASCAR’s top two divisions, he’s finished in the top four in 7 of his 8 starts. On the Cup level minus 2022, Reddick’s had results of 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th (not in that order). In the Next Gen at Homestead, Reddick ranks 7th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last year, Reddick ran a great race and then caught a lucky break caution which allowed him to race his way to victory lane. In the race, Reddick won the pole, won Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a race best 3.8 average running position, earned the best Driver Rating, led the most laps (97), and most importantly led the last lap, after making passes from 3rd to 1st. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Reddick ranked 5th. In 2023, Reddick paced himself over the course of the afternoon and had a strong showing. In the race, Reddick finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, had a 6.9 average running position, earned the 4th best Driver Rating and then finished 4th overall. In terms of speed stats, Reddick ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and then 7th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022 in the #8, Reddick started the race strong but then fell off over the course of the afternoon and then crashed late which led to his 35th. In the race, Reddick started 7th, finished 4th in Stage #1, had a slow pit stop during the Stage #1 caution which dropped him from 4th to outside the top ten, had another slow pit stop during green flag pit stops in Stage #2 that dropped him off the lead lap (was around the mid-teens prior to that) and then  on lap 243 while running in the mid 20’s, Reddick crashed. In the race, Reddick had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking. In the two races prior to that, Reddick had results of 2nd (2021) and 4th (2020).

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