Homestead Straight Talk Wireless 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Homestead for the Straight Talk Wireless 400. Homestead is a unique symmetrical 1.5-mile track where tire wear is extreme, and pit strategy consists of taking 4 tires every stop. The high-line is the fast-line, and the best of the best have consistently shined here over the years.
On Saturday, practice was held. Teams only had 25 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agendas. Make sure you check out our Homestead Practice Notes, Homestead 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Homestead Group Practice Speed Rankings.
Here’s the Homestead Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Homestead Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 14th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Homestead Outlook – In the Homestead Straight Talk Wireless 400, the road to victory lane likely goes thru Kyle Larson. Larson’s an elite rim rider and the high-line is the fast line around this high wear 1.5-mile track. At Homestead, I would argue the only driver who can beat Larson, is himself, and he’s managed to do that in back-to-back races. “Performance Wise” in the Next Gen at Homestead, I would argue Larson should really be 3 for 3 in the win column, but he’s only won once. Over the combined Homestead Next Gen races, Larson has the best Driver Rating and the 2nd best Next Gen Speed Ranking. Last year, Larson was subjectively the strongest, ranking #1 in terms of PROS Rankings but he finished an asterisk mark 13th. In the race, Larson started 13th, was in 2nd on lap 47 but then that lap, Larson had a tire go down and scrubbed the wall, which brought out a caution. To close out the race, Larson looked great and was up to 2nd with 13 to go but then when he was doing a pass on Blaney for the lead, he got too aggressive and spun out. In 2023, Larson was arguably the class of the field, but he beat himself. In the race, Larson started 5th, won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 96 laps, was running in 2nd on lap 211 but then on lap 213, Larson crashed into the sand barrels coming to pit road, leading to a 34th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked #1 with his speed over the segments being 1st, 1st, 4th and 3rd. In 2022, Larson smoked the field en route to victory lane. In the race, Larson had a perfect Total Speed Ranking, had the best Green Flag Speed, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run, earned a perfect Driver Rating, had a 1.4 average running position and led 199 laps. Another attribute you have to love about Larson is his prowess at high-wear intermediates and since 2023 on this sub-track type, Larson ranks #1 in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In practice, Larson was a speed standout, ranking #1 in terms of 20,25 and 30-lap averages.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $14,000
Further Recommended Reading = Homestead Quick Rankings, Homestead Finish Projections, DraftKings Homestead Scoring Projections, FanDuel Homestead Scoring Projections
2) Ryan Blaney
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Homestead Outlook – Ryan Blaney is a super-elite performer at Homestead who’ll be a favorite. Blaney currently has back-to-back 2nd’s at Homestead and “Performance Wise”, he’s been a top five contender in 4 of the last 5 races. In the Next Gen at this South Florida track, Blaney has been a standout performer, having the best Total Speed Ranking, the best average running position and the 3rd best average finish (7.0), but take note that even underrates him since he’s been top 2 good every race. Last year, Blaney had a rocket but came up short after getting passed in the last turn, leading to his 2nd. In the race, Blaney started 20th, finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 47 laps and earned the 3rd best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Blaney ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings, #1 for Green Flag Speed and then 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Blaney finished 3rd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 53 laps, earned the best Driver Rating, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. Another attribute I like about Blaney this weekend is that he’s strong at high tire-wear intermediates. Last year on this sub-track type, he ranked 1st in terms of speed, and going back to 2023, he ranks 5th. In practice, Blaney had good long run speed, and his 30-lap average ranked as the 2nd best.
DraftKings $10,000/ FanDuel $12,000
3) William Byron
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Homestead Outlook – Don’t overlook William Byron, the 2021 Homestead winner. At this south Florida track over the last five races among drivers who competed in every race, Byron has the best average finish (5.3), the best Average Running Position (6.6) and the 2nd best Driver Rating. In the Next Gen over the three races, Byron ranks 3rd in terms of Speed Rankings and ranks 4th in terms of Next Gen Average Finishes (7.3). Last year, Byron started 25th, finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 6th in Stage #2, earned the 6th best Driver Rating and then finished 6th. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the 6th best Speed Ranking and ranked 7th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Byron was one of the best. In the race, Byron finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a race best 3.6 average running position, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 3rd. In terms of speed stats, Byron ranked 2nd for speed Late In A Run and ranked 3rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Going back to 2023 at high-wear intermediates, Byron has the 2nd best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and a 4.2 average finish minus Darlington #2 2024 and Auto Club 2023. In practice, Byron had one of the best long run cars and had the 2nd best 25-lap average.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $12,500
