Sonoma Toyota / Save Mart 350 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Sonoma for the Toyota / Save Mart 350. Sonoma was freshly repaved for 2024, so this will be year #2 on the new surface. After a year of aging, Sonoma is now slicker and slower, with Allmendinger noting he was 2.5-seconds slower today as compared to last year.

On Saturday, practice was held for Sonoma. Teams had 25 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s. Make sure you check out our Sonoma Practice Notes, Sonoma 5,10 and 15 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Sonoma Group Speed Rankings and Sonoma Practice Speeds and 10-Lap Averages. 

Here’s the Sonoma Starting Lineup/ Qualifying Results.

Sonoma Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Shane van Gisbergen
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Sonoma Outlook – Polesitter, Shane van Gisbergen is the premiere road course racer in NASCAR and the road to victory lane in the Sonoma Toyota/Save Mart 350 goes thru him. SVG now has back-to-back road course wins and going back to last year, SVG has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking in the series, having ranked # 1 for speed in 4 of the last 6 races. This year at road courses, SVG has the best the best average finish (2.7), the best average running position (3.3), the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and the best Driver Rating by a wide margin. Last summer in the Xfinity series at Sonoma, SVG finished 1st, had a 2.7 average running position and led 40.5% of the laps. In practice, SVG wasn’t happy with his car but in practice he had the best 10 and 15-lap averages.
DraftKings $12,500/ FanDuel $14,000

Further Recommended Reading = Sonoma Finish Projections, DraftKings Sonoma Scoring Projections, FanDuel Sonoma Scoring Projections, Sonoma Quick Rankings, Sonoma Next Gen Average Finishes, Sonoma Next Gen Speed Rankings

2) Kyle Larson
Start 11th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Sonoma Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Sonoma who’ll be a factor. At Sonoma, Larson’s the defending winner, he’s won 2 of the last 4 races but in terms of “Performance”, I would argue he probably should’ve won 3 of the last 4. Over the last four Sonoma races, Larson has the best Driver Rating, the 2nd best average running position and has the 2nd best average finish (6.3), which I’ll note underrates him. In the Next Gen over the last three, Larson has the 3rd best Driver Rating, the 4th best Next Gen Speed Ranking and ranks 5th in terms of average finish (8.0). Last year, Larson was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane, having to make late passes on Truex, Buescher and McDowell. In the race, Larson had the best average running position (5.5), earned the best Driver Rating and led 19 laps. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked #1 across the board for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Larson finished 8th, had an 11.1 average running position and ranked 11th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Larson likely had the best car once again but the #5 team beat themselves with bad pit strategy and then losing a wheel. In the race, Larson started on the pole and led the opening 26 laps winning Stage #1, but then that pit strategy shuffled him deep in the field. When Stage #2 ended, Larson had driven up thru the field to 13th. Then in the final Stage on lap 82 while running in 8th, Larson lost a wheel, bringing out the caution which doomed him to a 15th. In 2021, Larson started on the pole, won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 57 laps, earned a near perfect driver rating, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the best Total Speed Ranking. Since 2024 at road courses, Larson ranks 6th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. In practice, Larson had the 5th best 5-lap average and the 4th best 10-lap average.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $13,500

3) AJ Allmendinger
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 2-7 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Sonoma Outlook – At Sonoma, look for AJ Allmendinger to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Typically at road courses these days as long as Allmendinger avoids trouble, he’s usually a top 6 driver. This year at road courses, Allmendinger has the 6th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and he’s fresh off a 6th at Chicago. In “Wine Country”, Allmendinger currently has back-to-back 6th place finishes and his Next Gen Speed Ranking over the last two is 6.5. Last year en route to his 6th, Allmendinger had the 4th best Driver Rating, the 6th best average running position (10.2) and the 8th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2023, Allmendinger had a great performance. In the race he started 4th, finished 6th, had an 8.4 average running position and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Allmendinger started in the back, lost his power steering basically at the start and was running in 11th on lap 108 before he went off roading and spun into the tire barrier. Somehow, Allmendinger still managed to finish 19th in that race. In practice, Allmendinger was happy with his car and had the best 5-lap average.
DraftKings $8,800/ FanDuel $9,500