Las Vegas South Point 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Zane Smith
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Zane Smith just had a great race at Kansas until he crashed, so he’ll have dark horse upside for those looking to roll the dice at Las Vegas. One trend you have to like about Smith is that he’s been showing up with speed at high-speed 1.5’s and over the last three races his average speed ranking is 12th. For the season at high-speed 1.5’s minus his Kansas #2 crash and a crash at Charlotte, Smith has an 18.7 average finish. Heading into the weekend, I would view Smith as a mid-pack driver who’ll have upside.
Las Vegas History – At Las Vegas over his three starts, Smith has a 25th place average finish and a 24.7 average Speed Ranking. This spring, Smith started 9th, had a 21.3 average running position, ranked 26th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and then finished 23rd overall. Last fall, Smith had a solid afternoon and finished 16th. Additionally, Smith had a 19.6 average running position and ranked 20th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Smith finished 36th, but I wouldn’t read into it. On lap 4 while running in 24th, Smith got into the wall hard and knocked out the toe on the #71, and he was doomed after that.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – The #47 team has had a performance collapse in the second half of the season, but I think there’s potential Stenhouse might have one of his better afternoons. That said, I think he’s high-teens good at best, but he might not be worth the risk. At Kansas just a few weeks ago, Stenhouse looked racy for the first time in months, having the 15th best Total Speed Ranking but he crashed and ended up finishing 35th. For the season at high-speed 1.5’s minus Kansas #2, Stenhouse has a 13.5 average finish.
Las Vegas History – At Las Vegas in the Next Gen, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is 7 for 7 at finishing between 17th to 27th, has a 22.1 average finish and ranks 25th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. This spring, Stenhouse finished 18th, had an 18.4 average running position and had the 17th best Speed Ranking. Last fall, Stenhouse finished 27th, had a 24.2 average running position and ranked 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Stenhouse finished 17th. Over the four races prior to that, Stenhouse had results of 25th, 24th 23rd and 21st.

Kyle Busch
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Busch might have upside at Las Vegas but its best to be braced for a letdown. Vegas been a pretty good track for him and in 6 of the last 10 races, he’s finished between 3rd to 6th. That said, Busch didn’t run well this spring (33rd), he’s fresh off a 19th at Kansas and for the season at high-speed 1.5’s, he has a 21.6 average finish and ranks 18th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. With how things are going for the #8 team these days, I think it’s best to just view him as a mid-pack driver who might have a fair bit of upside.
Las Vegas History – Kyle Busch has been elite at Las Vegas and in the Next Gen, Busch ranks 10th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings and in the results column minus this spring and spring 2024 his average finish is 7.4. Going further back, in 6 of the last 10 he’s finished in the top 6. This spring, Busch might’ve been a top ten contender, but he ended up having a rough afternoon and finished 33rd. In the race, Busch got multiple speeding penalties, but the real big knockout blow was when he lost a wheel on lap 113 shortly after a restart. At the time of that problem, Busch was running just outside the top ten. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Busch ranked 24th but take note his speed over the segments were 12th, 16th, 34th and then 28th. Last fall, Busch was solid, finishing 13th, having a 13.5 average running position and had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Busch was a top five contender but finished a misleading 26th. In the race, Busch started 21st, finished 4th in Stage #1, led 18 laps but then in Stage #2 his afternoon started to go south. Late in Stage #2 he had a long pit stop that dropped him from 2nd to 18th and then in the last Stage during green flag pit stops on lap 212 while running in 8th, Busch got penalized for pitting outside of his pit box. In fall 2023, Busch had a 7.6 average running position, had the 7th best Speed Ranking and then finished 3rd overall. Over the six races prior to that, Busch had results of 14th, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 3rd and 6th.

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