Phoenix NASCAR Cup Series Championship Fantasy Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Shane van Gisbergen
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Shane van Gisbergen had a rough Phoenix debut this spring, but I think it’s more than reasonable to expect him to be much more competitive in round 2 in the desert. The #88 team has had an uptick in performance as the year has gone along and in 2 of the last 3 races at shorter-flat tracks, he’s had a top 16 Speed Ranking, highlighted by a 14th place finish at Richmond. In 4 of the last 5 races heading into the season finale, SVG has finished in the top 14, so don’t overlook him.
Phoenix History – This spring at Phoenix before SVG really had the hang of things, he showed a little potential but crashed, leading to his 31st. In the race, SVG started 29th, finished 33rd in Stage #1 (lap 60), was up to 19th on lap 96 but then on lap 99 he was caught up in a multi-car accident that marked the end of his race. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, SVG ranked 23rd but I would be careful reading into that.

Zane Smith
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – At Phoenix, Zane Smith had a great performance this spring (9th) and hopefully he’ll continue to outperform expectations, but heading into the weekend, I think it’s wise to just view him as a mid-pack driver who’ll have upside. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Smith ranks 22nd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and in the results column over the five races, he has two top 11’s but over the other three he’s finished 27th or worse.
Phoenix History – At Phoenix, Zane Smith finished 9th this spring but over his three other starts he’s finished 29th or worse. This spring, Smith finished 9th, had an 18.0 average running position and ranked 20th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, he did find speed over the course of the race with his speed ranking over the segments being 22nd, 25th, 17th and then 12th. Last fall, Smith’s race was cut short, and he finished 39th. “Performance Wise”, Smith looked mid 20’s good but on lap 250 while running in the mid 20’s, he had a flat tire and pounded the wall hard. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Smith ranked 21st. Last spring, Smith finished 29th and ranked 30th in terms of Total Speed Rankings.

Todd Gilliland
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Look for Todd Gilliland to likely be about a 20th place performer with high-teens upside. Over the last three Phoenix races, he’s 3 for 3 at finishing between 17th to 20th so that should give you a good idea as to what you should expect. Overall at shorter-flat tracks this year, Gilliland has had a rough season, but he did finish 19th at New Hampshire which is the most recent shorter-flat track visited.
Phoenix History – At Phoenix in the Next Gen, Todd Gilliland has four results between 17th to 20th but over the other three he’s finished 29th or worse. Fortunately, his last three results have been in the good range. This spring, Gilliland finished 17th, had a 23.4 average running position and ranked 27th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last fall, Gilliland had a quiet afternoon, finishing 20th, having a 22.4 average running position and then ranking 23rd in terms of Driver Rating. Last spring, Gilliland once again finished 17th. In the race, Gilliland had a 17.5 average running position and also used some out of sync pit strategy which led to him leading 14 laps. Over the four races prior to that, Gilliland had results of 30th, 32nd, 29th and then 19th.

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