On Sunday, NASCAR will be crowning the 2025 Cup series champion at Phoenix! The stakes couldn’t be higher, and the drivers who’ll be battling it out in the winner take all (or highest finisher) battle royal are Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe. I joke the championship four have an extra +100 horsepower, and for whatever reason championship contenders always seem to step it up to the next level in the season finale.

On Friday, NASCAR held an extended practice session for Phoenix. Make sure you check out our Phoenix Practice Notes, Phoenix Practice Speeds and 10-lap averages and our Phoenix 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s Phoenix Qualifying Results.

Phoenix Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Denny Hamlin
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Phoenix Outlook – At Phoenix, Denny Hamlin could be a man of destiny and finally notch his first Cup series championship, in year #20. The #11 team has had weeks to focus ahead and Hamlin’s confident and likes his chances. Practice didn’t start off smooth for Hamlin but the #11 team got better over the course of the session and improved to the point where he was viewed to be right there with Byron, among the best. At Phoenix, Hamlin’s a 2-time winner and in the Next Gen, Hamlin ranks 5th in terms of Speed Rankings and his Next Gen Average Finish is tied for being the 6th best (10.9). This spring, Hamlin nearly notched his 3rd Phoenix win but on the final lap, Bell passed him which led to his 2nd. In the race, Hamlin earned the 3rd best Driver Rating, had the 4th best average running position (7.3) and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Hamlin finished 11th but that result doesn’t reflect his performance. For whatever reason, Hamlin just wasn’t at his best to close out. In the race, Hamlin finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 10.0 average running position. Last spring, Hamlin was a standout performer but finished an asterisk mark 11th. In the race, Hamlin won the pole, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had a 6.0 average running position, earned the 5th best Driver Rating, was tied for leading the most laps (68) but finished 11th. In the last Stage while battling for the lead, Hamlin spun out which led to his misleading finish. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 4th. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin won at Gateway which many view to be the best comp track, nearly won at Phoenix this spring and for the season minus Iowa his average finish is 6.3.
DraftKings $12,000/ FanDuel $14,000

Further Recommended Reading = Phoenix Finish Projections, DraftKings Phoenix Scoring Projections, FanDuel Phoenix Scoring Projections, Phoenix Quick Rankings

2) William Byron
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Phoenix Outlook – On Sunday, William Byron will be making his third straight “Phoenix Final Four” appearance and perhaps the third time’s a charm? So far, Byron’s 2 for 2 at coming home 3rd in terms of the final point standings. In the desert, Byron ranks among the premiere performers. Byron’s a recent winner (spring 2023) and over the combined Next Gen races, Byron has the Best Driver Rating, the best Average Running Position (5.2), the 2nd best Speed Ranking and the 2nd best Average Finish (8.0). This spring, Byron won the pole, won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 83 laps, had the 2nd best average running position (3.8), earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 6th. I’ll note, there’s a very real chance Byron was better than his result. In the last Stage, Byron was in 5th on lap 262 but then shortly after that he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle which dropped him back to 20th. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run. Last fall, Byron looked great but ultimately had nothing for the Penske big two. In the race, Byron finished 4th over the two opening Stages, had a 3.7 average running position, led 19 laps and then finished 3rd overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 4th. Last spring, Byron finished 18th but you can get out an asterisk mark for that result. In the race, Byron finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, was in 4th on lap 209 but then following that, Hamlin spun which flipped the field and that impacted Byron, and he just didn’t bounce back. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 8th. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Byron has an Iowa win, the best average finish (6.6), the 2nd best Driver Rating and ranks 2nd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. In practice, Byron was happy with his car and was fast on the stopwatch, ranking 3rd for 10 and 20-lap averages.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $13,500

3) Ryan Blaney
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Phoenix Outlook – Ryan Blaney will be looking to play the spoiler roll at Phoenix and there’s no doubt he likely has a car underneath him to pull it off. In practice, the #12 was a stopwatch standout with Blaney having the best 10 and 20-lap averages. In the desert, Blaney’s a super-elite performer and he’s done everything but win. In the Next Gen, Blaney has the best average finish (6.4), the best Next Gen Speed Ranking and he’s 4 for 7 at finishing 2nd. Take note, three of those 2nd’s have come over the last three fall races. This spring, Blaney looked great but finished an asterisk mark 28th. In the race, Blaney started 12th, finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2 but then early in the last Stage he started to develop engine issues and then on lap 289 while running in 8th, his engine blew up. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Blaney ranked 3rd. Last fall, Blaney was strong and finished runner-up. In the race, Blaney started 17th, finished 6th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 12 laps, had a 4.1 average running position, earned the 3rd best Driver Rating and then finished 2nd. In terms of speed stats, Blaney ranked 3rd for Total Speed Rankings and then 4th for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Blaney finished 5th and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2023 en route to taking home the title, Blaney finished 2nd and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. Over the three races prior to that, Blaney had results of 2nd, 2nd and 4th. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Blaney’s been elite, having the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and minus Phoenix he has 1-win (New Hampshire), a 3.0 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 8 every race.
DraftKings $10,700/ FanDuel $12,000