Phoenix Straight Talk Wireless 500 Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Josh Berry
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Josh Berry is a strong shorter-flat track performer who should be high on your radar at Phoenix. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Berry ranked 7th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and had a 6.8 average finish minus Gateway (crashed). Last year at Phoenix, Berry swept the top 7 with a 5.5 average finish between the combined races, so you can be confident he’ll perform. Heading into the weekend, I would view Berry as a top ten contender.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix, Josh Berry is 2 for 4 at finishing in the top ten and was one of four drivers who swept the top ten last year, to the tune of a 5.5 average finish. Last fall, Berry had a strong showing. In the race, Berry finished 7th, had the 7th best average running position (8.9), earned the 6th best Driver Rating and had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking. Last March, Berry finished 4th, earned the 5th best Driver Rating and had the 6th best average running position (9.1). In terms of speed stats, Berry ranked 3rd for Total Speed Rankings and 5th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2024, Berry was just not that good in either race and had disappointing results of 24th and 24th. In spring 2023 in the #9, Josh Berry snuck in a 10th, but you can get out an asterisk mark for that result and “Performance Wise” he was really a high-teens driver.

Carson Hocevar
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – If you’re looking for a Phoenix dark horse down the depth chart, don’t overlook Carson Hocevar. Hocevar has a pretty brutal track record (23.2 average finish) and he finished 28th or worse in both races last year, so he definitely doesn’t look great on paper. That said, Hocevar was a legit top ten contender last fall so I don’t have major concerns regarding “Performance.” Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Hocevar ranked 12th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and his average finish minus Phoenix where he had trouble in both races was 12.3. Heading into the weekend, I would view Hocevar as a teens driver who’ll have top ten upside.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix, Carson Hocevar ranks 15th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings and his average finish minus both 2025 races where he had trouble is 17.3. Last fall, Hocevar was a top ten contender but finished a misleading 28th. In the race, Hocevar finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 9th in Stage #2 but then in the last Stage on lap 220 while running in 8th, he had a flat tire which brought out a caution and led to his misleading finish. Additionally, Hocevar had a 12.2 average running position and ranked 14th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. To break down his speed more, Hocevar ranked 6th, 5th, 12th and then 32nd over the segments. Last spring, Hocevar had a short afternoon and finished 36th. In the race, Hocevar started 3rd, finished 7th in Stage #1 (Lap 60), had fallen back to 17th on lap 96 but then on lap 99 he was caught up in a “Big One” which marked the end of his race. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hocevar ranked 18th. Over his three Phoenix races prior to that, Hocevar had results of 18th, 15th and 19th.

Ryan Preece
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Ryan Preece is a great mid-tier option at shorter-flat tracks and “Performance Wise”, I think he’s a top ten contender. Last year at shorter-flat tracks minus Richmond where he looked great but had brake problems, Preece had an 11.2 average finish and had a result in the top 15 every race.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix in the Next Gen, Ryan Preece is 4 for 6 at finishing between 9th to 15th and his Next Gen Speed Ranking Ranks 19th. Overall in the Next Gen minus fall 2024, Preece has a 14.6 average finish. Last fall, Preece didn’t look good for much of the race but when the checkered flag waved, he finished 9th. On lap 308 right before the GWC caution, Preece was in 13th and then during the late caution he elected not to pit. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Preece ranked 24th. Last spring early in his #60 tenure, Preece started 28th, had a 10.7 average running position, earned the 8th best Driver Rating, had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 15th overall. Additionally, Preece led 34 laps but that’s also the product of out of sync pit strategy on the option tires. In fall 2024, Preece looked to be a high-teens performer but on lap 218 when he was running around 19th, the #41’s toe was broken and Preece was limping around the track which led to his 37th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Preece ranked 24th. In spring 2024, Preece finished 23rd. In 2023, Preece had solid finishes of 12th and 14th.

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