Phoenix Straight Talk Wireless 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – At Phoenix, Erik Jones is likely a high-teens to low 20’s finisher. In the Next Gen over the combined Phoenix races, Jones is 6 for 8 at finishing between 14th to 22nd, has a 20.9 average finish and ranks 22nd in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Last year, Jones went 2 for 2 at finishing in the teens with a 17th place average finish. In 2025 at shorter-flat tracks over the combined races, Jones finished between 16th to 21st in 4 of the 6 races, had a 20.8 average finish and ranked 26th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
Phoenix Track History – Phoenix doesn’t typically play out well for Erik Jones and in 11 of the last 12 races, he’s finished 16th or worse. Last fall, Jones finished 16th, had a 20.4 average running position and ranked 22nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, when the GWC caution came out, Jones was in 20th. Last spring, Jones finished 18th, had a 15.8 average running position and ranked 22nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In fall 2024, Jones was simply a low to mid 20’s performer. In the race, Jones finished 22nd, had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking and had a 25.4 average running position. In spring 2024, Jones looked sporty but finished an asterisk mark 31st. In the race, Jones started 4th, finished 4th in Stage #1 but then during the Stage #1 caution he had a slow pit stop that dropped him outside the top ten. When Stage #2 ended, Jones finished about 13th. Then in the last Stage on lap 221 while running in 8th, Jones got into the wall after contact from the #23 which had him rapidly dropping in the running order and then making an unexpected pit stop, which doomed him to a 31st.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is all but likely poised to be a bottom half of the field driver at Phoenix. Stenhouse had his best Phoenix Next Gen race last fall but it’s hard to get excited about a 17th. In 5 of the last 6 Phoenix races, Stenhouse has finished between 17th to 23rd, so it’s wise to likely expect more of the same. Overall in the Next Gen era at Phoenix, Stenhouse has a 24.3 average finish, ranks 31st in terms of Driver Rating and ranks 33rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Stenhouse had a 23.2 average finish and ranked 33rd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings
Phoenix Track History – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has not run well and his upside in recent races is about 20th place, with him having finished between 17th to 23rd in 5 of the last 6 races. Last fall, Stenhouse finished 17th, had a 20th place average running position and ranked 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note before the GWC caution, Stenhouse was in 23rd. Last spring, Stenhouse brought out a caution when he spun on lap 10, made an unexpected pit stop on lap 260 while running in the 20’s but managed to finish 21st, thanks in a large part to the high attrition rate. In the race, Stenhouse had a 26.1 average running position and earned the 27th best Driver Rating. In fall 2024, Stenhouse was quite bad. In the race, Stenhouse finished 33rd, had a 26.3 average running position and ranked 35th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Over the three races prior to that, Stenhouse had results of 21st, 23rd and 19th.

Todd Gilliland
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – At Phoenix, I think Todd Gilliland is likely primed for a finish around 20th. In the Next Gen, Gilliland has a 23.3 average finish and over the last four, he’s finished between 17th to 22nd. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Gilliland went 4 for 6 at finishing between 17th to 25th.
Phoenix Track History – Over the last four Phoenix races, Todd Gilliland has a 19th place average finish. Over the last two spring races, Gilliland has back-to-back 17th’s, and he would likely be glad to get another. Last fall, Gilliland finished 22nd, had a 19.4 average running position and ranked 17th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Gilliland finished 17th, had a 23.4 average running position and ranked 27th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2024, Gilliland had results of 17th and 20th.  

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