Las Vegas Pennzoil 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones might have a respectable showing in him at Las Vegas. Jones doesn’t have a great overall track record in the Next Gen, but he finished a respectable 15th last fall and over the last three races held at high-speed 1.5’s last year his average finish was 14.7 which was tied for the 10th best. In 2025 at high-speed 1.5’s over all the combined races, Jones ranked 24th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
Las Vegas History – In the Next Gen at Las Vegas, Erik Jones has a 20.9 average finish and ranks 22nd in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. In the results column, he’s had more bad days then good and he’s 5 for 8 at finishing 19th or worse. Last fall, Jones finished 15th, had a 21st place average running position and ranked 25th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, some late wildness helped boost him in the results column and with 25 to go before a late caution came out, he was in 21st. Last spring, Jones started 5th, finished about 15th in the two opening Stages, was running about 20th on lap 191 but then later that lap he was caught up in an accident that led to his 27th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 22nd. In fall 2024, Jones finished 25th, had a 26.7 average running position and ranked 27th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll also note, Jones didn’t have an incident free race. On lap 61 Jones was in 23rd and was the last car on the lead lap but then during a caution after that, he lost a wheel. In spring 2024, Jones finished 14th, earned the 20th best Driver Rating and had a 21.7 average running position. In fall 2023, Jones finished 28th but that’s an asterisk mark result. On lap 65 while running in 15th, Jones had a flat tire which dropped him off the lead lap and back into the 30’s. After that, his competitive afternoon was over.

Michael McDowell
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – At Las Vegas, I would view Michael McDowell as a mid to high teen’s driver. Last year at Vegas, McDowell went 2 for 2 at finishing 16th and for the season over all the combined races at high-speed 1.5’s, McDowell had a 17.0 average finish. Overall at Las Vegas in the Next Gen, McDowell has a 20.6 average finish, ranks 24th in terms of Driver Ratings and has the 28th best Next Gen Speed Ranking.
Las Vegas History – Michael McDowell has a pretty lack luster resume at Las Vegas. McDowell’s finished between 16th to 27th over the last 11 races with his average finish over that stretch being 20.4. Last year, McDowell went 2 for 2 at finishing exactly 16th. Last fall, McDowell finished 16th, had a 22.8 average running position and ranked 27th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, late wildness boosted him and with 25 to go he was back in 22nd. Last spring, McDowell started on the pole, led 5 laps, had a 15.4 average running position, finished 16th and ranked 23rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In fall 2024, McDowell simply had a mid-pack afternoon. In the race, McDowell finished 20th and had a 17.8 average running position. Over the three races prior to that, McDowell had results of 20th, 25th and 17th.

Connor Zilisch
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – At Las Vegas, I think it’s wise to be in “Watch and learn mode” with Connor Zilisch as to what we should expect from him in 2026 at high-speed 1.5’s. Things could go either way, but to play it safe, I think it’s reasonable to have mid-pack expectations. Avoiding trouble has been no small task for him so he’ll be risky.
Las Vegas History – Connor Zilisch has never competed at Las Vegas on the Cup level. Last year in the lower series, Zilisch finished 9th in the spring and then 2nd in the fall.

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