Darlington Goodyear 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon has historically been solid at Darlington but in terms of “What have you done lately”, things haven’t been good. Over the last seven Darlington races, Dillon’s finished 15th or worse and has a 23.0 average finish, which includes a pair of 23rd place finishes in 2025. Over the 10 Darlington races prior to his ongoing cold streak, Dillon’s average finish was 11th. From a career standpoint via his 16.0 overall average finish, Darlington statistically ranks as his 5th best track. Heading into the weekend, I would view Dillon as about a 20th place driver who’ll have marginal upside.
Darlington Track History – In the Next Gen era at Darlington, Dillon has a 21.3 average finish and ranks 24th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Last year, Dillon was a dud and had a pair of 23rd place finishes. Last fall en route to his 23rd, Dillon had a 19.3 average running position and ranked 23rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In spring 2025, Dillon was his recent average finish and once again came home 23rd. Additionally, Dillon had a 22nd place average running position, earned the 25th best Driver Rating and ranked 23rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In summer 2024, Dillon had one of his better recent races, finishing 15th, had a 16.8 average running position, had the 16th best Driver Rating and then ranked 17th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Over the two races prior to that, Dillon had results of 28th and 20th.

Todd Gilliland
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Todd Gilliland has been “sneaky respectable” at Darlington but he’s ultimately a roll of the dice pick. In the Next Gen at “The Lady In Black”, Gilliland’s 5 for 8 at finishing between 11th to 17th which is pretty good for a driver of his tier. Overall in the Next Gen, Gilliland has a 19.0 average finish and ranks 26th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, I would view Gilliland as a +20’s performer who’ll have roll of the dice upside.
Darlington Track History – Todd Gilliland has been pretty solid at Darlington and over the last four, Gilliland has three finishes between 14th to 17th and has an 18.0 average finish. Last summer, Gilliland started in the rear of the field, had a 27.2 average running position, ranked 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and then finished 26th when the checkered flag waved. Last spring, Gilliland had a solid afternoon. In the race, Gilliland finished 14th, had a 17.5 average running position, earned the 17th best Driver Rating and ranked 14th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In summer 2024, Gilliland was OK, finishing 17th, having a 16.8 average running position and ranking 13th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. To make his afternoon a little more impressive, Gilliland was even involved in a last Stage wreck. In spring 2024, Gilliland finished 15th, had a 12.3 average running position and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. Over the four races prior to that, Gilliland had results of 26th, 11th, 28th and then 15th.

Noah Gragson
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Noah Gragson is 3 for 5 at finishing in the teens at Darlington, which includes him going 2 for 2 at finishing in the teens in 2025, so I think he clearly has teens upside. That said, I think projecting him to finish in the 20’s is a lot safer. Over his five starts at “The Lady In Black”, Gragson has a 21.0 average finish and ranks 23rd in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings.
Darlington Track History – In the Next Gen at Darlington, Noah Gragson could easily have four straight teen finishes, so that’s some hope compared to most race weekends. Last summer, Gragson finished 14th, had a 20.1 average running position and earned the 20th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, he ranked 14th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 21st best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Gragson finished 19th, had an 18.6 average running position and ranked 19th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In summer 2024, Gragson finished 32nd but that’s a misleading result. In the race, Gragson started 29th, finished around 17th in Stage #1, finished around 17th in Stage #2, was running in 15th on lap 340 but then just after that on lap 343 he was caught up in a “Big One”, leading to his poor result. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Gragson ranked 16th. In spring 2024, Gragson started 36th, had a 19.8 average running position, had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 14th.

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