Martinsville Cook Out 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – At Martinsville, I can’t say I’m expecting a lot out of Erik Jones and a result around 20th is likely in the cards, if he can avoid trouble. In the Next Gen, Jones has a 21.5 average finish (crediting him with a 24th last spring, DQ’ed) and ranks 29th in terms of Total Speed Rankings.
Martinsville Track History – At Martinsville in 4 of the last 7 races, Erik Jones has “Crossed The Finish Line” between 19th to 24th. In 2025, Jones had a pair of asterisk mark results in the 30’s, so make sure you continue reading for context. Last fall, Jones looked OK but finished 34th. In the race, Jones started 28th, finished Stage #1 in the mid 20’s, finished Stage #2 in 10th, was running in 14th on lap 160 but then shortly after that, Jones spun out during a pit cycle which damaged the #43 and was noted to be off pace, which led to his poor finish. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 25th with his speed over the segments being 25th, 29th, 16th and then 34th. Last spring, Jones “Crossed” the finish line in 24th, had a 24.3 average running position and ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Technically speaking, he finished 38th due to a post-race DQ. In fall 2024, Jones finished 19th and had a 22.0 average running position. In spring 2024, Jones finished 12th, had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 16.5 average running position.

Daniel Suarez
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – Daniel Suarez has been mediocre at Martinsville, and I don’t think that’s about to change. Currently, Suarez has four straight low 20’s finishes between 21st and 23rd and his overall Next Gen average finish is 22.5. Also in the Next Gen era, Suarez ranks 21st in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings and his Next Gen Driver Rating Rank is also 21st. Going further back, Suarez has consistently been mid-pack or worse here and in 12 of his last 13 races he’s finished 17th or worse.
Martinsville Track History – As you just read, Martinsville typically doesn’t play out well for Daniel Suarez and in the Next Gen he’s finished 17th or worse in 7 of the 8 races. Over the last four, Suarez is 4 for 4 at finishing between 21st and 23rd. Last fall in his #99 farewell, Suarez finished 22nd, had a 25.4 average running position and ranked 24th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Suarez finished 21st, had a 16.9 average running position and ranked 15th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I would chalk up his result to him just not being at his best late with his speed over the segments being 19th, 12th, 12th and then 23rd. In 2024, Suarez had results of 22nd and 23rd and those represent his performance.

Connor Zilisch
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – It will be interesting to see what we’ll get out of Connor Zilisch at “The Paper Clip.” Avoiding trouble has been no small task so I wouldn’t be surprised if the rookie once again has a rough afternoon. Heading into the weekend, I think just viewing him as a mid-pack driver and hoping for the best is the right game plan.
Martinsville Track History – On the Cup level, Zilisch has a blank resume. Last year in the Xfinity series, Zilisch finished 9th in the fall (started 38th) and then in the spring he won the pole, led 100 laps but then had problems and finished 28th.

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