Bristol Food City 500 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – 4-time Bristol winner, Denny Hamlin should be on your short list of favorites to win the Food City 500. In the Next Gen at Bristol, Hamlin ranks 2nd for Speed Rankings and Driver Rating, and then 3rd for average finish (8.0). In terms of the Next Gen results column minus last summer, Hamlin has a 3.4 average finish. Another variable about Hamlin that you should like is that he’s plenty capable in both high tire-wear and low-wear races, with a win under each scenario.
Bristol Track History – Denny Hamlin ranks among the premiere performers at Bristol. In the Next Gen, Hamlin’s won twice, he’s 5 for 6 at finishing in the top ten and ranks 2nd for Speed Rankings and 3rd for average finish (8.0). Last fall, the #11 team was thrown a curveball and they whiffed, with Hamlin finishing 31st. That said, that’s an asterisk mark result and he was realistically around 10th place good. In the race, Hamlin started 6th, finished Stage #1 in about 11th, finished Stage #2 in about 11th again, ran much of the last Stage right around that range, was up to 2nd on lap 361 following a little pit strategy but then on lap 365, he rapidly dropped back and got into the wall. Then shortly after that on lap 383, he lost a wheel. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 18th, with his speed over the segments being 10th, 13th, 19th and 32nd. Last spring, Hamlin finished runner-up. In the race, Hamlin started 4th, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 3rd place average running position, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the fastest car late in a run and ranked 2nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In summer 2024, Hamlin finished 4th, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and a 4.6 average running position. In spring 2024 when tire wear was also high, Hamlin finished 1st, led the most laps (163) and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Over the two races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 1st and 9th.

Kyle Larson
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Bristol and the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. In the Next Gen, Larson’s a 2-time winner and minus last summer, his average finish is 2.8, his average Speed Ranking is 2.8 and he’s had a result in the top five every race. When it comes to the different tire wear scenarios, Larson’s plenty capable in both. Larson has won the last two races in dominate fashion in low-wear conditions and in high-wear conditions, he had a damaged #5 last summer but finished 5th in spring 2024. Overall in the Next Gen at Bristol, Larson ranks 2nd for average finish (7.7) and 3rd for both Total Speed Rankings and Driver Rating.
Bristol Track History – Kyle Larson’s a 3-time winner at Bristol who’s thrived and since 2017 minus spring 2019 and last summer, Larson has a 3.6 average finish. In the Next Gen minus last summer Larson has 2-wins and a 2.8 average finish. Last summer, Larson had a tough race and finished 32nd. Personally, I wouldn’t read into it too much. Larson didn’t look good, he struggled but also at some point in Stage #1, the #5 got damage that his team spent extra pit stops making repair. Also, Larson broke his toe link on lap 365 when he slammed into Suarez coming off a corner, which was to the extent the #99 DNF’ed. In the race, Larson started 5th, finished in 24th off the lead lap in Stage #1, did a few extra pit stops in Stage #2, finished Stage #2 in 19th then in the last Stage on lap 365 while running around 25th, he slammed into Suarez and broke his toe link, leading to his 32nd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 27th. Last spring, Larson put on a display of domination. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 411 laps, earned the best Driver Rating and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked #1 and fielded the fastest car over all four segments. In summer 2024, Larson was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a perfect Total Speed Ranking, came close to having a perfect Driver Rating, had a 1.1 average running position and led 462 laps. In spring 2024 which was another high-wear race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 8th in Stage #2, had an 8.4 average running position and then finished 5th. Over the three races prior to that, Larson had results of 2nd, 5th and 1st.

Ty Gibbs
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Ty Gibbs should prominently be on your fantasy NASCAR radar at Bristol. Bristol’s been a great track for Gibbs and he was especially impressive last year, being the class of the field in the summer (10th) and then finished 3rd in the spring. Over the Next Gen era, Gibbs ranks 4th for Speed Ranking and Driver Rating and then 8th for average finish (12.8). In terms of the results column minus 2022, Gibbs is 4 for 5 at finishing in the top ten with an 8.4 average finish. Another variable you have to like about Gibbs is that he’s strong in both low and high-wear tire races, but in high-wear races he’s especially shined, having the best Total Speed Ranking in both races. Heading into the weekend, I think Gibbs is a top five contender.
Bristol Track History – Ty Gibbs has performed at a high-level at Bristol and if it wasn’t for a pit road snafu last summer, he could’ve swept the top 3 in 2025. Last summer, Gibbs was the class of the field but finished an asterisk mark 10th. In the race, Gibbs finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 201 laps, had a 4.8 average running position but then finished a misleading 10th. In the last Stage during the final green flag pit cycle while leading, Gibbs had major problems coming to pit road, which included him missing it which cost him a lot of time, leading to his asterisk mark result. Last spring, Gibbs finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, had the 4th best average running position (6.6), earned the 5th best Driver Rating and then finished 3rd overall. In terms of speed stats, Gibbs had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 9th for Speed Late In A Run. In summer 2024, Gibbs started 15th, finished 8th in Stage #1 but then during that Stage caution, Gibbs was caught speeding on pit road which dropped him back to the mid 20’s. Passing was difficult, and Gibbs just wasn’t able to fully bounce back and finished 15th as a result. Additionally, Gibbs had a 13.8 average running position and the 15th best Total speed Ranking. In spring 2024 in a high-wear race, Gibbs was arguably the best but finished an asterisk mark 9th. In the race, Gibbs won Stage #1, won Stage #2, earned the 3rd best driver rating, led 137 laps and had the best Total Speed Ranking. In the race, Gibbs got a pit penalty around lap 180 while leading and then late in the race, Gibbs also had a flat tire. Prior to his race going south late, Gibbs was running in 3rd. In 2023, Gibbs had the 2nd best average running position (4.4), the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, finished 5th and led 102 laps.

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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier