Inside An Experts Fantasy NASCAR Draft

Jay Busbee – From The Marbles, Yahoo! NASCAR blog

1. You landed the top pick, so Jimmie Johnson was an easy selection. After having to wait to the end of the second round to pick again, how confident are you with Jeff Burton and Kasey Kahne?

How confident am I? So confident that I was thinking of just passing on my last five picks and riding JJ to victory in our league! Seriously, I liked how Burton ran at the end of last year, and I think Kahne will do much better in a Ford than a Dodge. Serpentine leagues are hell on the guy with the No. 1 pick, but I feel a hell of a lot safer with the 48 than I would with, say, Adrian Peterson.

2. Brad Keselowski was your No. 5 selection. Aside from triggering wrecks, how do you see his first full-time season working out?

Jet Ski seems like the classic million dollars of talent with a ten cent head. I think he’s got a ton of potential, which is why I was picking him. Plus, we were almost down to start-and-parkers at that point. Of course, if he takes out one of my topline guys, I’ll cut him in a heartbeat.

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Eric McClung – http://twitter.com/ericmcclung

1. There are several drivers worthy of the No. 2 pick, how did you decide on Jeff Gordon?

In a draft league, it’s so important to know what you are getting with your first couple of picks. Last season, Gordon tied teammate Jimmie Johnson for the most top-fives (16) and led all drivers in top-10s (25). Gordon’s average finish (10.2) was his second-best since the Cup series expanded to 36 races in 2001. Most of the other experts thought I would go for Denny Hamlin. While Hamlin had some really great numbers last season, the hype surrounding him right now is much like Carl Edwards heading into 2009.

2. Roush Fenway struggled mightily last season, how do you feel about having both Greg Biffle and David Ragan on the same team?

Last year, Biffle finished seventh in points and ninth in driving rating so getting him with the 11th pick was just fine by me. When you look at the draft results, after Ambrose the pool of talent got pretty thin. I see Ragan as a post-hype sleeper after nearly making the Chase in 2008. The quicker Roush Fenway can starting using the new Ford engine on a weekly basis, the sooner things will get things turned around, hopefully.

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Darren Fauth – Onebadwheel Fantasy NASCAR Cheat Sheet

1. Coming off a season in which he set several career highs, Denny Hamlin has a lot of hype attached to him. Were there any other drivers you debated taking with the No. 3 overall pick?

It was while working with the NASCAR Loop Data for the fantasyracingcheatsheet.com site that I realized that Hamlin was so stout in 2009. He was just an underachiever. Heck, I think according to his Loop Data numbers that Hamlin could be the guy to keep Jimmie from getting No. 5. I went into this draft with Johnson my first rated driver and Hamlin my second. So, in reality I was glad to see he was still available when my turn came up.

2. There has been some buzz around Marcos Ambrose becoming this year’s Juan Pablo Montoya. Do you see the Aussie making a run at the Chase?

You know me and that I’m incredibly anal when it comes to stats and preparation. I had Ambrose as my highest ‘pre-draft’ ranked guy that was available when that turn came up. So, I took him. I do think he is a great driver and I hope (and expect) him to continue to improve in 2010. But, make the Chase? Nope.

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Scott Engel – RotoExperts

1. No one else in the draft has three Chase drivers from 2009, you’ve got four! In a fantasy NASCAR draft, where the talent pool gets thin fast, did it help to draft in the middle?

Drafting in the middle in this particular league turned out to be good, but it’s all about being prepared. I really did not expect Stewart to slip. I was able to take some pretty safe drivers with the first four picks. Drafting in the middle, you don’t get that shot at Jimmie Johnson, but thankfully, you can still get a very good, top-tier driver. If you’re outside the Top 5, you have some questions early and maybe with your third pick.

2. Juan Pablo Montoya’s ability to get back into the Chase varies a great deal depending on who you talk to. Do you see him as a risky No. 2 driver?

Not at all. While the wins haven’t been there yet, the improvement and progression certainly has. Montoya is clearly ready to climb to the level of top contender this year after a significant breakthrough campaign. After regularly running up front last year, now he will show he can stay there.

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Dan Beaver – Fantasy Racing News

1. Kyle Bush and Carl Edwards combined for 17 wins in 2008. Last year, Kyle won four and Carl was shut out. As your first and second picks, how strong do you see these two drivers rebounding in 2010?

My picks were affected by the draft order. As the fifth player to pick, several choices were already gone before I had a chance. However, I do have Kyle Busch ranked fourth in the pre-season Yahoo! draft kit because he is explosive. Busch has the capability of running up front every week so long as he and the team do not make an early mistake with the setup. Once he begins to get frustrated, the race is over, but each year brings just a little more maturity and it is a calculated risk that he will meltdown less often in 2010.

In my estimation, Carl Edwards is the best Roush racer at the moment and the entire organization is due to rebound from last year’s disappointment. Edwards’ fate last year was sealed with his broken foot late in the regular season, or else I believe he would have won a couple of races during the Chase.

2. You passed over Kevin Harvick, Brian Vickers and Marcos Ambrose in favor of Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano. Do you expect the first three of drivers to decline or just think Truex and Logano are due for big improvements?

Passing over Kevin Harvick was an easy decision: if he hasn’t already mentally checked out of Richard Childress Racing (RCR), he will at the first sign of trouble as the Silly Season starts at the Daytona 500 for a driver in the last year of a contract, who has said the book is closing on his career with Childress. I also passed over Marcos Ambrose in favor of Martin Truex Jr. largely because of the relative experience of the two drivers. Ambrose’s improvement last year was impressive and I expect it to continue into 2010, but Truex has more seat time and they should be in equal equipment. One gets the sense that Michael Waltrip gave the best cars to Ambrose and David Reutimann last year and that will end now that Truex is in his renumbered ride.

Joey Logano showed consistent improvement during the season— just as a rookie is expected. As he visits tracks for a third and fourth time, he is going to continue to improve. Sophomore slumps typically come to drivers who had exceptional freshman seasons, and that was not the case with the teenager. As good as he was, he still has a lot to prove. His steady growth last year tells me that he will continue to learn what he needs from the car and how best to communicate that with the team.

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Ryan Rantz – ifantasyrace.com

1. For having the final pick of the first round, you still managed to score Mark Martin and Kurt Busch, second and fourth in points last year. Who were you originally targeting having to pick last?

Having the final position in the first round, the objective is to take the best driver off the board. Mark Martin and Kurt Busch were clearly the best drivers available. Originally I envisioned picking Kyle Busch and probably Matt Kenseth.

2. Kevin Harvick was bad for much of last season and can’t wait to leave RCR. A lot of people saw David Reutimann as an overachiever last year and a possible bust in 2010. How confident are you in your No. 3 and 4 drivers?

It’s true that Kevin Harvick was bad for most of last season and wants out of his contract but it’s not his first time being in this situation. The last time he was in a contract year and wanted out was the best year of his career. He went on to win five races and finished fourth in points. There are a lot of parallels between this situation and the one he was in 2006. Kevin Harvick was fast at the end of the season and would’ve won Atlanta if it wasn’t for a late caution. I’m extremely comfortable with drafting Kevin Harvick here and I think this might be the steal of the draft.

David Reutimann was a solid Chase contender last year until Denny Hamlin wrecked him at Pocono. Last year he scored the 11th most picks at the intermediate tracks and the sixth most on the flat tracks. These two track types constitute two thirds of the season so there was no going wrong with drafting David Reutimann here. Watkins Glen and Infineon are the two tracks that I absolutely don’t trust Reutimann at and I believe that I drafted other drivers who can fill this hole in my roster.