Pocono 5 Hour Energy 500 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
A= Really, Really Good Pick
Denny Hamlin – Denny Hamlin’s on the rise and he’s entering the Pocono 5 Hour Energy 500 as the driver to beat. Hamlin’s a four time winner and in the last three he’s won twice and finished fifth. Even if he doesn’t win he’s a lock for a top five finish. (Yahoo A Driver)
Carl Edwards – This two time Pocono winner will surely give Denny Hamlin a run for his money. The real difference maker for him is the FR9 engine. Last summer the FR9 engine led Greg Biffle to the win and Carl Edwards to a third place finish. (Yahoo A Driver)
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A- = Really Good Pick
Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson has led 20 or more laps in every Pocono race except one dating back to 2008. He’s both a good qualifier (7.7 avg start) and finisher (9.6 avg finish) at “The Tricky Triangle”. Johnson has two wins at Pocono but they were both back in 2004. (Yahoo A Driver)
Tony Stewart – Stewart has been nearly flawless at Pocono going all the way back to the 2005 summer race. Since then he’s finished in the top ten in every race but one. This two time winner has only finished outside the top three once in the last four races at Pocono. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kevin Harvick – There was a time when people would make jokes about Harvick at Pocono because he never led a lap. To those people I say get some new jokes, he led 5 last year. In 2010 Harvick finished 4th twice. (Yahoo A Driver)
B+ = Good Pick
Greg Biffle – Biffle’s the most recent winner but his next most previous top ten at Pocono was back in 2006. That’s to long of a gap between top tens for my liking. Also it’s hard to overlook his lack of luck on the track this year. (Yahoo A Driver)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt Jr. hasn’t finished in the top fifteen the last four Pocono races. Should you be worried? Nope. He’s been outperforming everyone’s expectation this year and he’ll do it again. Earnhardt Jr. has had some really good races at Pocono in the past so Junior Nation shouldn’t be dreading this week. (Yahoo B Driver)
Kurt Busch – Busch has won in Roush equipment and Penske equipment at Pocono. The bottom line here is he knows how to win. He’s looked a lot better in recent weeks and in his two most recent Pocono races where he wasn’t involved in an accident he finished 6th and 9th. (Yahoo A Driver)
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer’s had some success at Pocono in recent races. In the last five races he’s finished in the top fifteen every race and collected three top tens. Bowyer was very strong last spring and even looked like the car to beat but he brushed the wall which killed his chances (led 59 laps). (Yahoo B Driver)
Matt Kenseth – Momentum matters in fantasy racing. Back in 2003 he was on my fantasy team and so was Dale Jarrett. Kenseth was the points leader but Dale Jarrett was the sure thing at Pocono. What happened? I used Jarrett and Kenseth had his best finish ever and Dale Jarrett crashed. His last top ten was back in 2008 but I think you should expect good things out of him this week. (Yahoo A Driver)
Jeff Gordon – Gordon has a long unbelievably successful career at Pocono. He’s a four time winner who’s only finished outside the top fifteen 7 races since 1993. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kasey Kahne – Kahne’s a former winner who’ll be in proven equipment this week. Red Bull has had pretty good equipment in the past with Vickers and there’s no doubt Kahne won’t be in a similar situation. He’s shown himself to be good in recent weeks so buy now. (Yahoo B Driver)
B = A Tier Below The Good Picks
Mark Martin – Never a winner but his 11.1 average finish and 8.9 average starting position look pretty good to me. This years a down year for him and so was last year but in the race where he didn’t crash in 2010 he finished 7th. (Yahoo B Driver)
Brian Vickers – There’s some solid sleeper potential here. Toyota’s make excellent horsepower at Pocono and he’s good here. He’s finished second twice, fourth twice, and the last time he raced here (2009) he finished sixth. (Yahoo B Driver)
Brad Keselowski – Brad’s now a two-time winner in the Sprint Cup Series and traditionally every few years Penske engines put a whooping on the field at Pocono. The Dodges have looked a lot better in recent weeks so some sort of level of success isn’t out of question this week. Last year Brad finished 20th and 21st. (Yahoo B Driver)
Ryan Newman – Newman’s a sub top ten driver at Pocono. Since 2008 he’s only finished in the top ten once. Early in his career he was really good at Pocono. (Yahoo B Driver)
Kyle Busch – Water and oil don’t mix and neither does Kyle Busch and Pocono. Last spring he finished second but overall his success at Pocono is extremely rare. Last spring he led 32 laps but in his career he’s only led 34 total laps. If you’re in an allocation league this is not the week to pick Kyle Busch. In twelve starts Kyle Busch has only finished in the top ten three times.(Yahoo A Driver)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Juan Pablo Montoya – The last time Montoya raced at Pocono he finished sixteenth. In the three previous races he finished second once and eighth twice. In the last four Pocono races he’s improved his qualifying position each race (15th, 10th, 7th, and 2nd) so only a pole comes next if this trend continues. (Yahoo B Driver)
Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose’s first Pocono race was his best. In that race he finished sixth but his Yahoo! race chart tells me he was most likely about a 13th place car. Last year Ambrose was involved in an accident and had an engine failure. That’s half of his four career starts so you can throw his 27.25 average finish out the window. (Yahoo B Driver)
David Reutimann – On paper Reutimann doesn’t look appealing but he’s shown potential. In the 2009 spring race he finished third. In the summer race he finished 29th but he was taken out by Denny Hamlin. Want to know how good he really was? Check out his Yahoo! race chart for the answer : Yahoo! race chart (Yahoo B Driver)
David Ragan – Ragan’s at his best on intermediate tracks but he’s not in Kansas anymore. Beyond a top five finish in 2008 and a 14th place finish last year he’s never finished in the top twenty. (Yahoo C Driver)
Martin Truex Jr. – Right after Martin Treux Jr. got his first career win at Dover in 2007 he looked like Superman on the track for weeks and as a result he finished a career best 3rd at Pocono. I would pencil him in for a high teens to mid twenties finish. (Yahoo B Driver)
AJ Allmendinger – Last June “The Dinger” finished 10th in the Pocono 500 but beyond that it’s hard to say he’s really got any fantasy value this week. In seven races he’s only finished in the top fifteen twice. (Yahoo B Driver)
C+ = Proceed With Caution
Joey Logano – Logano had success last spring in his Joe Gibbs Racing equipment but Kevin Harvick roughed him up at the end. With the way he’s been performing this year not picking him is a no brainier. Take away his Charlotte third place finish and he looks like a complete flop this year. (Yahoo B Driver)
Jeff Burton – Last year Burton finished in the top ten twice. He’s still looking for his first top ten this year. Will it happen in the Pocono 500? He’s still having closing problems so I say avoid until he finally does. (Yahoo B Driver)
C = I’m Not Picking Them
Paul Menard – Menard finished in the teens both races last year but as I’ve been stating for weeks my faith in him is dwindling fast. His average finishing position in the last five races is 26.2. (Yahoo C Driver)
Jamie McMurray – McMurray only has one top ten finish at Pocono since 2006. Since they go here twice a year that’s really bad. The upside about picking McMurray is that if you pick him you might be the only one! (Yahoo B Driver)