Pocono Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Axalta 400
This week we’re at “The Tricky Triangle,” Pocono Raceway for the Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400. This race has the potential to be very interesting because many crew chiefs will often play this like a road course event and start working backwards with fuel strategy once the green flag drops. Just keep that in mind when making your picks. Qualifying was on Friday this weekend and Kurt Busch ended up with the pole. The full starting lineup can be found here. There were then two practice sessions on Saturday, and those speeds are here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Don’t forget to check out our notes on those two sessions: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Axalta 400:
1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 5th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 1st
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
When I tell you that we’re at a race track that requires good horsepower and a smart driver, Kevin Harvick should be one of the shoo-in fantasy picks. He has just six top 5 finishes in twenty-eight career starts at “The Tricky Triangle” but I’m not concerned about Kevin’s history at all; the #4 Chevrolet will be a top 5 threat once again on Sunday, and I wouldn’t advise that you pick against this team. It’s probably quite annoying to see the same top 2 ranking week after week for Kevin Harvick—and trust me, I get bored putting him there all the time—but you have to remember that he has finished 1st or 2nd in nine of the first thirteen races of 2015. This team is just that much better than everyone else in the garage right now. This weekend, Harvick qualified 5th for Sunday’s race and will be a threat for the win. The #4 Chevrolet showed up on the ten-lap average chart for both practice sessions on Saturday, which tells me that this team is really happy with the car. A lot drivers didn’t make a ten-lap run at all on Saturday. Pocono isn’t a race in the Chase so we don’t have to worry about Harvick and company experimenting this weekend. It will surprise me if the #4 car isn’t top 3 when the checkered flag waves on Sunday.
2. Kurt Busch – Starts 1st – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 4th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
As I was reviewing driver stats at Pocono on Monday, one thing really stuck out to me: Kurt Busch is really, really good here at “The Tricky Triangle.” It’s not very often that you see Kurt be consistently fast and finish up front at one particular race track, but he has four finishes of 3rd or better in his last seven starts here and has ended up inside the top 10 in seven of the last ten. Not too shabby. Now let’s look at Busch’s current situation: he’s driving for an organization that has the fastest car week in and week out, and that fastest car is sharing notes with Kurt and the #41 team. Oh, and guess who’s on the pole? Perfect combination. Last week at Dover was the first time that Kurt Busch majorly disappointed fantasy owners in 2015, and I don’t envision that happening two race weekends in a row. The #41 Chevrolet was 5th-fastest in Happy Hour and was one of the few cars that made it on the ten-lap average chart in both practice sessions Saturday. That’s a very good sign in my book. Busch is going to lead early and he’s going to lead often on Sunday. Will he be able to take home a win in the Axalta We Paint Winners 400? I’m not saying for sure, but I will say that the #41 Chevrolet will definitely be a threat.
3. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 7th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
In all honesty, Truex should have won the last three races. Seriously. At Kansas, Charlotte, and Dover the #78 Chevrolet led the most laps and had the best driver rating. Every. Single. Week. This team is running like we expect Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson to run…except they’re missing one thing: the finish. Now don’t get me wrong, Truex has finished 9th, 5th, and 6th in those three races—which is great—but he should have wound up top 3 in all of them. Anyway, let’s look at Pocono. Martin has a career average finish of 15.9 here with just six top 10s in eighteen career starts. Obviously that’s not that great but I don’t care about past stats for Truex—when you’re on a roll, you’re on a roll. The #78 Chevrolet will roll off the grid in 3rd for Sunday’s Axalta We Paint Winners 400 and I fully expect Truex to challenge for the win once again. He had a couple of great practice sessions on Saturday (top 6 speed in both) and thinks the car is really close. Momentum and speed is a combination I don’t like to bet against, and I’m not going to this weekend. Truex finished 9th in this race one year ago at Pocono.
4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 20th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 2nd
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Junior won both races here at Pocono in 2014 but I don’t think we’ll see him make it three in a row here on Sunday. With that being said, the #88 Chevrolet is still very fast and Earnhardt should be able to make his way into the top 5 before the Axalta We Paint Winners 400 is all said and done. I say “make his way into the top 5” because the #88 Chevrolet will start Sunday’s race in 20th position. Pocono has long straightaways that will allow cars with strong engines—like the Hendrick machines—to have an advantage. Looking at practice this weekend, the #88 team was so happy with their race car in Practice #2 on Saturday that they couldn’t thing of anything to change. Then Happy Hour rolled around and they weren’t as happy. Still, Junior ended up 5th in ten-lap average during that final session and was 9th on the overall speed chart, so I’m not overly concerned about that. Earnhardt is on a four-race streak of top 5 finishes here at Pocono and has ended up 9th or better in seven of the last eight. I’d be quite surprised if Junior isn’t at least a top 8 car on Sunday. One thing to note is that it was reported during the first Saturday practice that the #88 Chevrolet was experiencing some water cooling issues after a few lap (as was Jamie McMurray’s #1 Chevrolet). I haven’t heard anything else about this issue, though, so I’m not too worried about.
5. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 9th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 3rd
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
The #48 Chevrolet was really solid in Practice #2 on Saturday morning but then fell off a bunch in Happy Hour that afternoon, so I was a bit conflicted in ranking JJ this high. With that being said, I have plenty of confidence in Chad Knaus and the #48 crew to turn things around and keep Jimmie in contention for a great finish on Sunday. JJ is a three-time winner here at Pocono Raceway, and while I don’t think he will be able to grab a fourth victory in Sunday’s Axalta We Paint Winners 400, I could definitely see Johnson grabbing his eleventh top 5 finish in his twenty-seventh start at this track. Jimmie is coming off of his fourth (yeah, already) Sprint Cup win in 2015 and has finished 3rd or better in six of the last seven series races. This #48 team is right there with the #4 team in terms of overall power right now. The Hendrick horsepower will pay dividends here at Pocono on Sunday and Johnson will roll off the grid in 9th when we go green. He hasn’t finished worse than 6th in the last four June races at “The Tricky Triangle” and it’s very possible that Johnson makes it five finishes inside that mark on Sunday.
6. Jeff Gordon – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
We hear plenty of talk about how this #24 team isn’t where they were last season but they keep cranking out top 10 after top 10 and that kind of consistency is very valuable in fantasy racing. I have high hopes for the #24 Chevrolet on Sunday, though, because when Jeff Gordon has qualified inside the top 5 this season he has typically had a very good race car. Jeff will roll off the grid in 4th for Sunday’s Axalta We Paint Winners 400. He also had a strong engine underneath the hood and that will help with these long straightaways at Pocono. Seven of the last nine Cup events at “The Tricky Triangle” have finished with Jeff Gordon inside the top 10 and I think he’ll make it eight of the last ten come Sunday. Jeff was the 7th-fastest car in Saturday’s Happy Hour practice after posting the 11th-best lap in Practice #2 earlier that morning. Also, only two other drivers have a better average rating than Jeff Gordon over the last four events here at Pocono (Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Kurt Busch).
7. Denny Hamlin – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 6th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Hamlin use to dominate here at Pocono but times have changed. Still, he’s typically a threat for a top 10 finish and maybe a top 5 if his team hits on something in practice. I don’t quite have the #11 Toyota inside the top 5 heading into this weekend’s race but you never now how 400 miles at this track is going to play out. The reason I have Hamlin as “Medium Risk” for this race is because this team has actually been struggling to finish races as of late. In addition to their blunder at Dover last weekend, Hamlin has just two top 10 finishes in the last seven points-paying Cup races. I don’t like to see that. With that being said, Denny has came home solidly inside the top 10 in three of the last four Pocono Cup races and ended up 5th and 11th on the two practice speed charts on Saturday. I have the #11 Toyota in 7th heading into Sunday, which may be a little bit, but Hamlin should still be a solid top 10 threat nonetheless.
8. Kyle Busch – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I think it’s safe to say that we really don’t have much to worry about when it comes to Kyle Busch’s legs and his driving performance. Rowdy came home 11th in the Coca-Cola 600 a couple of weeks ago and probably would have had a shot at the win last Sunday at Dover if it wasn’t for the wreck. Looking at Pocono, Kyle and the #18 Toyota will roll off the grid in 10th on Sunday and I really think he has a good shot at a top 10 finish when the Axalta We Paint Winners 400 is all said and done. Rowdy had the 2nd-best ten-lap average during Practice #2 on Saturday morning and posted the 13th-fastest lap in Happy Hour. Kyle’s record here is not quite as good as hit brothers but he did come home inside the top 10 in both Pocono events in 2013. It’s nowhere near a lock but I’m expecting a solid race out of this #18 team on Sunday.
9. Brad Keselowski – Starts 7th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 5th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I feel like both Penske cars are struggling a little bit right now, but Keselowski is struggling a little bit less than Logano so I have the #2 Ford ranked above the #22 heading into Sunday. Also, with the way pit strategy and stuff tends to come into play here at Pocono, I’d take Paul Wolfe and BK over pretty much any other crew chief-driver combo in the garage. Looking at recent history here at “The Tricky Triangle,” Keselowski has ran pretty well with three finishes of 6th or better in the last five races as well as a win back in 2011. BK will roll off the grid in 7th for Sunday’s Axalta We Paint Winners 400 and he showed a little bit of speed during Saturday’s Happy Hour practice session, ending up 6th on the ten-lap average chart. Still, I see Keselowski as simply a top 10 threat this weekend and not much more. Like I said, however, you never know how strategy/fuel/rain will change the outcome of the race here in Pocono…
10. Ryan Newman – Starts 13th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This is probably the highest you will see Ryan Newman ranked this weekend, but hear me out on this one. “The Rocketman” is really, really good and consistent here at Pocono, and those are the words I love to hear when I’m trying to be conservative in fantasy NASCAR. So if that is your gameplan this weekend, think about giving Newman a spot on your roster. Currently, Ryan is on a five-race streak of top 10 finishes here at “The Tricky Triangle” and he hasn’t ended up worse than 14th here since the 2008 season. That’s 13 races in a row at this track that Newman has came home 14th or better, and eight of those were results of 9th or better. Pretty damn good if you ask me. On Sunday, “The Rocketman” will roll off the grid in 13th, which is where I expect him to run for most of the day. When it’s all said and done, however, I think we’ll see Newman do what he does best and sneak up into the top 10. This #31 Chevrolet was lacking speed in both practice sessions on Saturday but that’s typical Newman style. He may be missing crew chief Luke Lambert due to suspension but that didn’t affect Newman at Kansas or Charlotte where he ended up 6th and 10th, respectively. The #31 car won’t be on many rosters this weekend either so it gives you the opportunity to make an “outside of the box” pick.
11. Joey Logano – Starts 11th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: N/A
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I’ve had my concerns about Joey Logano over the last month or so and with three finishes outside of the top 10 in the last four points-paying Sprint Cup races, I think it’s definitely time to stay away from the #22 Ford a little bit more in fantasy. For how long? I’m not sure, but you probably won’t find Joey on many of my rosters this weekend, although that doesn’t mean he will finish bad on Sunday. In fact, I’m sure many other fantasy experts have Logano as a top 10 car heading into this week’s race. I’m right there on the edge. Joey was the first driver to win after Pocono got re-paved and has ended up 13th or better in five of the six races ran here on the new pavement, including a 3rd-place result in last year’s fall event. I’m just not seeing speed anywhere close to top 5 out of the #22 Ford this weekend. Logano will start Sunday’s race in 11th and I expect him to run between 8th and 12th all day long. Obviously that’s not terrible, but as fantasy owners we’re expecting more out of a driver like Logano. The #22 Ford was 23rd-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday and improved that to 15th-quickest in Happy Hour. I’ll let you make your own decision this weekend but I’m going to take a break from Logano on Sunday.
12. Carl Edwards – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 15th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Cousin Carl is the definition of fools gold in the fantasy racing world. He’ll qualify great and show good speed in practice all weekend just to lay an egg during the race (when it counts). Or the opposite will happen and he’ll go out and grab a surprising win—like at the Coca-Cola 600 last month. It’s looking like fools gold again this weekend at Pocono. Carl qualified the #19 Toyota on the front row for Sunday’s Axalta We Paint Winners 400 and was inside the top 5 during both practice sessions on Saturday. This would be a great sign for any other driver but I just don’t trust Carl Edwards whatsoever. Until this team shows me that they can finish up front on a regular basis, I’m going to need to feel 100% confident before putting the #19 Toyota on my rosters. I would have considered that this weekend if Edwards showed up on the ten-lap average chart in either session on Saturday. Alas, he didn’t. When you add in the fact that Carl hasn’t finished top 10 here at Pocono since the 2012 season, I’ll gladly take my chances with other drivers in fantasy on Sunday. Don’t let the good starting spot fool you, best case scenario finds Carl Edwards finishing 10th this weekend. Remember, when it comes to fantasy racing, it’s not where you start, it’s where you finish.
13. Kyle Larson – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I don’t know about you but I have a feeling this is shaping up to be another disappointing weekend for Kyle Larson fantasy owners. I guess my biggest concern is that this team has been struggling big time this year. Yeah, Kyle brought the #42 Chevrolet home in 3rd at Dover last weekend, but a top 5 run doesn’t the six finishes outside of the top 10 in the seven races before that. Another reason I’m hesitant on picking Larson this weekend is because he has looked really fast all weekend long. Yeah, you read that right. I’m trying not get overly-excited about the speed Larson shows in qualifying and practice until he shows me that he and his team can actually get the finish in races on a consistent basis. In other words, I’m still not on the Larson bandwagon. With that being said, I can’t blame you for taking a shot with him on your fantasy team this weekend: Kyle will roll off the grid in 15th for Sunday’s Axalta We Paint Winners 400 and had the 2nd-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour after ranking #1 on that chart in the earlier practice session on Saturday. Also, Kyle ended up 5th and 11th in his first two races here at Pocono last season. I’m not telling you not to pick the #42 Chevrolet this weekend, I’m just telling you not to have too high of hopes for Larson right now.
14. Matt Kenseth – Starts 19th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 12th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
I think Matt Kenseth has found some pretty good speed in his #20 Toyota this weekend (he was 4th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour and had the 8th-fastest lap) but I simply do not trust him at this race track. It’s pretty bad when Cole Whitt, Travis Kvapil, and David Gilliland all have better average finishes than Kenseth over the last four races here. And with just two top 10s in his last thirteen starts at “The Tricky Triangle,” paired with the fact that Kenseth qualified 19th for Sunday’s race, there’s zero percent change that Matt finds his way on any of my rosters this weekend. If you do decide to roster the #20 Toyota on Sunday, I have two words of advice: good luck. As I said earlier, I believe Kenseth does have some speed this weekend, but this is a long race and I’m just much more comfortable picking some of other top tier drivers on my fantasy teams for Pocono.
15. Kasey Kahne – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kasey grabbed his second top 5 finish of the season last weekend at Dover, so this must be the weekend he disappoints again, right? Just kidding. Kind of. Kahne is actually kind of on a roll right now with three straight finishes of 12th or better in Sprint Cup action. And he has Hendrick horsepower underneath the hood, which will definitely pay dividends on Sunday. However, my big concern with Kahne this weekend is that he never runs well in the spring race at Pocono. Seriously: in the last three August races, KK has notched finishes of 2nd, 1st, and 10th. In the last three June races? 29th, 36th, and 42nd. Now obviously this little streak of his is going to end soon—and I’d say that will more likely than not happen on Sunday—but I’m not going to take the risk by putting the #5 Chevrolet on my rosters this weekend. Kasey will start 12th for Sunday’s Axalta We Paint Winners 400 and ranked 3rd both on the overall speed chart and the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour. If you want to be different with your picks this weekend, Kahne is probably a pretty good shot. It really depends on your position in your league right now and how you want to approach this race. Remember, it’s not unlikely for Pocono races to come down to fuel mileage. With no weird factors like that, the #5 Chevrolet is between an 11th- and 15th-place car heading into the race on Sunday.