Dover AAA 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Tony Stewart – From a career perspective Dover has been an interesting track for Tony Stewart. At times he was “money in the bank” here and at other points in his career he was a driver who you absolutely had to avoid. Recently I would say he’s been an OK performer. This June he didn’t have a great car but he managed to escape with a 16th place finish. It should be noted however in the race his average running position was 23rd and he earned the 24th best driver rating. Last fall at Dover Tony Stewart had an OK race. He didn’t do anything special but he did run in the top quarter of the field all race long. In the event he started 15th, finished 14th, earned the 13th best driver rating and had a 12th place average running position. In spring 2014 he performed well. Through the first 3/4ths of the race he looked like a sub top ten driver but in the last quarter of the race I would estimate his average running position was around 5th. When the checkered flag waved Stewart finished 7th, had an 11th place average running position and earned the 10th best driver rating. In spring 2013 at Dover Tony Stewart got his most recent victory. It was both unexpected and shocking. In the race he led 3 laps, had a 15th place average running position and earned the 10th best driver rating. The turning point for him in that race was when Denny Hamlin crashed with 20 laps to go. That allowed Stewart to use pit strategy and if the caution didn’t happen I think it’s unlikely he would’ve even finished in the top ten. What truly made his win head scratching is how bad he performed at Dover leading up to that event. In the five Dover races prior to his win he finished between 20th and 29th. (Yahoo B Driver)

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Austin Dillon – Dover hasn’t been a good track for Austin Dillon. His average finish is 26.0 and in all four of his starts he’s finished two laps or more down. This spring he was having a good race but it wasn’t incident free. I’ll speculate he damaged his car with 15 laps to go during the Denny Hamlin wreck and possibly finished it off during the final wreck. For reference for what I’m talking about here’s a link to his Yahoo Race Chart. In the race Dillon started 12th, had a 15th place average running position and finished 33rd. In 42.7 percent of the race he ran in the top fifteen. Last fall he had a rather straightforward race. He started in 10th and over the course of the event he slowly faded back to his 24th place result. Austin Dillon performed better than he finished in June 2014. When the checkered flag waved he finished 20th but it’s important to note his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 317 while he was running around 14th he ran out of fuel under green. Then following his pit stop he was penalized for speeding on pit road and had to serve a pass through penalty. After that series of unfortunate events he dropped back to 23rd in the running order. (Yahoo B Driver)

Further Recommended Reading – Dover Top Tier Elite Picks, Who will win the Dover AAA 400?, Fantasy NASCAR Scouting Report – Dover, Dover Loop Data Box Score From June 2015

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