1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 2nd)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be one of the drivers to beat at Dover. He’s a recent winner who’s performed at an extremely high-level even though many of his recent results don’t show it. Since 2015 he has the 2nd best driver rating, has led the most laps (563) and has a very misleading 13.5 average finish. One attribute I like about Harvick is his momentum heading into the weekend. Over the last five races he’s finished in the top 7 every race and has a 4.6 average finish. In practice Harvick had a great car and over long runs he was arguably the best. In Happy Hour he had the best 20 lap average and Jeff Gordon thought he looked like the driver to beat. On Sunday I would look for Harvick to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Dover Track History – Kevin Harvick has quite a few recent misleading results at Dover, but don’t let that scare you away. In recent races he’s been one of the best. As you read above since 2015 he has the 2nd best driver rating. Last fall he was a top five contender but finished a misleading 17th. On lap 229 while he was running around 6th he made an unexpected pit stop for a loose wheel that dropped him two laps down and he never recovered from that. In spring 2017 he had a strong car but finished a misleading 9th. I thought he was a top five contender but he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle with 71 laps to go which dropped him from 4th to 16th. Additionally from the race it should be noted Harvick finished 3rd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2 and earned the 5th best driver rating. In fall 2016 he had a short race and on lap 34 while he was running in the top five his track bar mount broke and he immediately took his car to the garage. In spring 2016 he led the most laps (117), earned the 3rd best driver rating but finished 15th after getting involved in the “Big One.” In fall 2015 he put on a display of domination. He finished 1st, earned a perfect driver rating and led 355 laps.
DraftKings $11,600 / FanDuel $11,800
2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 4th)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch will be a favorite to win at Dover. He won here last fall and you have to love how strong the #18 team has been in 2018. This year minus plate tracks he has an extremely impressive 2.4 average finish. At Dover, Kyle Busch has proven himself to be an elite performer. Over the last five races he has three top 2 finishes and has been a top ten good every race. In practice, Busch had a fast car and in both Saturday practice sessions his ten lap average ranked as the 2nd best. On Sunday I would look for Busch to finish in the top five and be a serious threat to win.
Dover Track History – Dover has been a great track for Kyle Busch. He’s a three-time winner who’s finished in the top five 46% percent of the time and in the top ten 62% percent of the time. Last fall he had a great car and raced his way to victory lane after passing Chase Elliott with 2 laps to go. In addition to winning he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 30 laps. Additionally he finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. Last spring he had a great car but his race was very eventful. During the first pit stop while he was leading his tire fell off. Later while he was running in 5th he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle which dropped him to 15th. Then with 37 laps to go he made an unexpected pit stop which led to his misleading 16th place finish. In fall 2016 he was very competitive. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, had a 2nd place average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating and led 102 laps. In spring 2016 he was probably around 10th place good performance wise but finished 30th because he was caught up in the “Big One.” In fall 2015 he had a great car and finished runner-up.
DraftKings $ 11,600/ FanDuel $12,700
Further Recommended: Practice Notes/ Practice Speeds Center, Likely Finish Ranges, DraftKings Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Playability Value Chart, Speed Cheat Sheet, DraftKings Start Page, Fantasy NASCAR Start Page, FanDuel Start Page, Starting Lineup
3) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 3rd)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. will be tough to beat at Dover. He’s a recent winner who’s performed at a super-elite level. Over the last four races he has 1 win, the best driver rating, the best average running position (3.5) and the 2nd best average finish (4.3). Martin Truex Jr. is in a little bit of a slump heading into the Monster Mile, but his home track is the perfect place for him to rebound. On Sunday I would look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Dover Track History – Dover is a great track for Martin Truex Jr. and it ranks among his best. He won his first race here and since 2014 he’s finished in the top 11 every race. Last fall Truex Jr. had a strong showing. He finished 4th, had a 3rd place average running position and led 51 laps. Additionally he finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. In spring 2017 he had a great performance. He won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 102 laps, finished 3rd and had a 4th place average running position. In fall 2016 he raced his way to victory lane and got his second victory at the “Monster Mile.” In that race he had a 2nd place average running position and led a race high 187 laps. In spring 2016 Truex Jr. was involved in the “Big One” but he still had a good afternoon. When the checkered flag waved he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position, finished 9th and led 47 laps.
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $11,800