Indianapolis Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Aric Almirola – Aric Almirola will be a driver to watch at Indy. His track record isn’t good (22.2 average finish), but on Sunday I think he’ll be a low-double digits driver who’ll have a good chance to finish in the top ten. Personally I’m not viewing his track record as all that relevant when evaluating his fantasy value, I’m focusing on his 2018 weekly level of performance. Last year at Indy, Almirola had his best result and finished 13th. Additionally, he earned the 8th best driver rating and had an 11th place average running position. It was a quality showing but keep in mind only 16 cars finished on the lead lap and the bottom 20 either crashed or had major problems. In 2016 he didn’t run well. He finished 25th and had a 30th place average running position. In 2015 he didn’t have an incident free race and finished 38th. Performance wise he was likely really high-teens good. His misleading result is the product of him spinning into the inside wall on lap 107 while running in 17th. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 38th. In his three Indy races prior to that he had results of 21st, 17th and 19th. Pocono is the most similar track on the schedule and he was a top ten contender in both races there this year (Finished 7th in June but had problems on pit road in July and finished 25th).

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Alex Bowman – At Indy, Bowman has a 41.5 average finish. Based on today’s field size having that bad of an average finish isn’t even possible. That said, I wouldn’t even bother looking at his track record. Just focus on his 2018 weekly level of performance which is high. Over the last ten races entering the weekend he has six top 11’s and 7 top fourteens. Pocono is a similar track and he recently finished 10th there. On Sunday I’m projecting him as a low-double digits driver who’ll compete for a top ten.

Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson has been very successful at Indy. He’s a four-time winner who was in contention for win number #5 last year. In 2017, he had a good car but finished 27th. With 2 laps to go while he was battling three wide for the lead he wrecked. He had the favorable position in the turn and if he would’ve got out of it unscathed the win was likely his for the taking. In 2016, the #48 car was strong. Johnson finished 3rd and earned the 8th best driver rating. I will note he wasn’t quite as good as his result. Performance wise he was closer to 10th place good. In 2015, Johnson showed speed but his pit strategy was vastly inferior. It led to him finishing 15th, having a 13th place average running position and earning the 12th best driver rating. In 2014 Johnson just didn’t have a great car. He started 11th, had a 12th place average running position and finished 14th. In the two Indy races prior to that he was very strong finishing first and second.

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