Darlington Showtime Southern 500 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
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A = Really, Really Good Pick
Jimmie Johnson – With 2 Darlington wins and a 6.9 career average finish Jimmie Johnson will be the driver to beat this weekend. His record here is nearly spotless and he’s finished in the top ten in 9 of his 11 races here. Also another big plus with Jimmie Johnson this weekend is that the 48 overcomes adversity on the track better than anyone. Last year he started 42nd and finished 2nd.
Jeff Gordon – Over the last 5 years Jeff Gordon’s average finish is 2.6, his average running position is 7.5, and he’s outscored his closest competitor by 85 points. Also lets not overlook his 7 career wins and 17 top fives in 29 races.
A- = Really Good Pick
Greg Biffle – No driver needs a good finish more than Greg Biffle. Greg Biffle is a consistent front runner at Darlington and he’s led 558 laps over the last 5 years. He’s led 364 more laps than Denny Hamlin who’s led the second most laps over this period of time.
Mark Martin – At tough tracks I like picking veterans who will make it to the finish line. Mark Martin is the defending champion of this race.
Ryan Newman – Check out what I said about him in my Contender or Pretender post.
Kyle Busch – Kyle won this race two years ago bouncing off the walls. He’s proven to be a streaky driver in the past so good days are ahead of Kyle.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a driver who’s always consistent at Darlington. He’s never finished worse than 13th in four starts. He had this race won in 2007 but Jeff Gordon’s “old faithful” car ended up in victory lane that day.
Carl Edwards – I have the feeling things are about to get real good for the 99. When Edwards doesn’t have problems at Darlington he’s proven himself to be as good as anyone here. His average finish in Darlington races where he avoids problems is 5.75.
Matt Kenseth – Mr.Consistent has been consistent at Darlington and has finished in the top ten four consecutive races.
B+ = Good Pick
Kevin Harvick – Harvick’s a big money driver and with the conclusion of the DirectTV Head to Head challenge big money will be on the line. If you pick him this week don’t live in fear of his 23.6 average finish.
Tony Stewart – This is one of the rare tracks where Tony Stewart has never won on. Over the last 5 years he’s passed more people here than anyone. It’s easy to do a lot of passing when your not up front. Over this time period he’s only led 1 lap.
Martin Treux Jr. – If your Martin Treux’s mother than you have a good chance of winning the DirectTV Head to Head challenge, assuming you picked him to win it. His average finish at Darlington is 11.3.
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Juan Pablo Montoya – At Darlington Montoya has a pair of 23rd place finishes and a 20th. I think he’ll finish much better than that.
Clint Bowyer – Darlington has never been a real good track for Clint Bowyer. His average finish at Darlington is 21st.
Kurt Busch – The Kurt Busch / Ricky Craven Darlington image is probably engraved into your mind when you think about this track. It should be, it was a great finish. At Darlington Kurt Busch’s career started off badly, then he found his groove for five races, and since then he’s been trapped in mediocrity and hasn’t had a top ten since 2004.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – His record here is good, but the trust factor I have in him is not. He really hasn’t been that good this year. When you take away his Daytona finish were talking about a driver who would be in the high teens in points.
Joey Logano – This race last year was when Logano started to show a little fight in him. He was competitive and led 19 laps.
Brad Keselowski – His 7th place finish last year at Darlington was the real deal. No fluke here. If you need a sleeper he might be the guy you’re looking for.
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Kasey Kahne – I believe Kahne is capable of getting the job done at Darlington but since he finished 3rd in 2005 he’s been stuck finishing in the low twenties.
Jamie McMurray – Early in his career McMurray was really good at Darlington. In three out of his first five races he finished in the top six. Since then he hasn’t cracked the top ten.
C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here
Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose doesn’t have much track time at Darlington. Last year he finished 33rd.
David Reutimann – When you look at his Darlington stats you’ll see nothing impressive there. His season as a whole is enough to keep me away from him. I know my fantasy team doesn’t need any of his luck.
AJ Allmendinger – Every time AJ goes to Darlington he gets a little bit better. If this trend continues (not counting on it) then you can expect him to finish 11th this race.
Brian Vickers – Last years Chase participant is starting to really slip out of Chase contention for 2010. Vickers is now 24th in points and Darlington won’t do him any favors. In Vickers Sprint Cup career he’s raced at Darlington seven times and not once has he even finished in the top fifteen. In only one of those races has Vickers even cracked the top twenty.
David Ragan – In his spectacular sophomore year he finished 5th here. His numbers from that year no longer reflect anything about David Ragan so I would highly recommend you avoid him.
C = I’m Not Picking Them
Sam Hornish Jr. – The chance that I’m going to give him for avoiding trouble is 10%. In his two races at Darlington Hornish has never finished higher than 30th.
Elliott Sadler – Only once since 2004 has Elliott Sadler cracked the top 15 at Darlington. His average finish since then is 25.1.
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Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Picks
My Pick : Jimmie Johnson
Top Onpitrow.com Expert Pick: Jeff Gordon
Top Onpitrow.com Darkhorse Pick: Ryan Newman