Contender or Pretender: New Hampshire
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Jimmie Johnson (Contender) – After Infineon do you really think NASCAR can Jimmie proof the Chase? At New Hampshire this week it will be hard to keep Jimmie Johnson down. Only once in Jimmie Johnson’s career has he finished outside the top fifteen and that wasn’t because of a competitive issue. Johnson’s average New Hampshire finish since 2007 is 5.83. Earlier this year at Phoenix which is similar to New Hampshire Jimmie Johnson led a race high 113 laps (tied with Kyle Busch for the most) and finished 3rd.
Joey Logano (Pretender) – Joey Logano won last year at New Hampshire in the rain. Does a rain shortened win mean anything in fantasy racing? Of course it doesn’t, at least not under the circumstances in how Joey Logano won. I think it would be hard for Joey Logano to be any less competitive than he was last year. Joey Logano was a 20th place driver at best last year in this race. He started 24th, he was in 24th at the midpoint of the race and his average running position was 21.4. Joey Logano was only in the top fifteen 13.9 percent of the race.
Kurt Busch (Contender) – Kurt Busch is always a contender every time the series visits New Hampshire. His average finish over the last four races at New Hampshire is 4th. In eighteen starts at the Magic Mile Kurt Busch has three wins and nine top tens. Last year Kurt Busch outscored all drivers in terms of cumulative points scored at New Hampshire.
Mark Martin (Pretender) – Mark Martin was second to Kurt Busch in cumulative points in 2009 at New Hampshire but what numbers of his from last year would you say are truly representative of him in 2010? I would say that for the most part he’s been marginally less competitive basically across the board. The last race Martin led a lap at was Talladega, but who can’t led a lap there?
Kyle Busch (Contender) – Early in his stint at Joe Gibbs Racing Kyle Busch was a flop at New Hampshire. Now he very easily should be considered the favorite this weekend. Earlier this year Kyle Busch won at Richmond and if a late caution didn’t come out at Phoenix Busch would’ve won that race.
Denny Hamlin (Pretender) – A Pretender isn’t a driver who’s going to finish in 43rd place. A Pretender is somebody who I think is overrated heading into the weekend. Even though Denny Hamlin has never finished worse than 15th at New Hampshire in his career I feel that he’s overrated this weekend. Right after his surgery he was nowhere near competitive at Phoenix. A week later he went on to victory at Texas. I can easily give him leeway for Phoenix but at Richmond after his Texas victory he was nowhere near competitive.
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June 22, 2010 @ 2:25 pm
ryan, how often does your mind change,after final practice.
which drivers seem to fudge when they say they like there car. In short, some one like martin likes car is reliable, but have seen others say same thing..and stink.
As for me, happy drivers seem to have fast rides, and saying so on tv catches my interest. How about you?
Ray Lenexa KS
June 23, 2010 @ 7:27 am
Practice is key at many tracks. My rule of thumb for practice is basically the bigger the track, the more important Happy Hour is (excluding restrictor plate tracks and road courses). I’m a big fan of Happy Hour.
I always go into the weekend with my mind probably 75% certain of what I’m going to do and then the driver needs to perform in Happy Hour before I commit.
When drivers say there cars are reliable my advice would be if there a good driver then they mean it. If there a bad driver like Elliott Sadler then its something they say every week. Probably the best thing to do is just look at there average practice speed on NASCAR.com’s live leaderboard.
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June 25, 2010 @ 12:55 pm
I disagree about Denny Hamlin. At Phoenix, he was wrecked and the battery in his car died. At Richmond, he ran in the top 10 for the majority of the race, and pit strategy shuffled him back and he only could fight back up to 11th and almost was 10th. Also, the particular race car he was in had been was overused and worn out. Are you forgetting he’s won 5 of the past 11 races? Posted top 4 finishes at 2 of his worst tracks, Talladega and Dover? Has the best average finishing position (other than Brad Keselowski, whom I do not count because he’s only ran one race) at New Hampshire? Beat Jeff Gordon for one of the 30 closest finishes in NASCAR history at New Hampshire in 2007? He’s definitely a contender.
June 25, 2010 @ 1:09 pm
The main thing I’m really focusing on Hamlin at New Hampshire on is how he ran at Richmond. It simply wasn’t any good. At one point in the race Hamlin went a lap down under a long green flag run. That’s not the trait of a contender to me.
In the 2007 race your mentioning Hamlin wasn’t the best car that day. He was a top 5 car but it was a track position/ pit strategy victory at the end of the race. Thanks for the comment.