Dover AAA 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

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A= Really, Really Good Pick

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has won two out of the past three Dover races and if he wasn’t caught speeding on pit road this spring he could easily be three for three. His average running position for the last three Dover races is 2.3. Over this time period he’s led 794 laps and his next closest competitor has only led 131 laps. His near perfect driver rating of 142.9 says it all (150′s perfect). (Yahoo A Driver)

Carl Edwards – Carl Edwards has done a back flip at Dover before and this Sunday he might be doing one again. In the last eight Dover races Carl Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 11th. Another impressive feat of his over this time period is that he’s led ten or more laps in every race but two. His 7.9 Dover average finish is the best in the series. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is the spring winner at Dover and is second to Johnson in laps lead at the monster mile over the last three races (131 laps led). Dover fits his aggressive driving style and he’s been a natural since he first raced here. In his first two races at Dover he finished second twice. Since then only problems have kept him out of the top five. (Yahoo A Driver)

Who will win at Dover? VOTE in the ifantasyrace.com poll

A- = Really Good Pick

Greg Biffle – In the last eleven Dover races Greg Biffle’s scored the most points in the series. He also has the best average finish (5.5) and he’s spent the most time racing in the top fifteen (91.9% of the time). (Yahoo A Driver)

Jeff Burton – Burton’s snapped a long winless streak before at Dover and this Sunday he might be able to do it again. In the last eleven Monster Mile races Burton has the 5th best average finish (8.9) and he’s scored the 6th most points. (Yahoo B Driver)

B+ = Good Pick

Tony Stewart – Stewart’s finished 9th the last two times the series visited this venue. In the 2009 spring race he finished second to Jimmie Johnson. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch has always run good at Dover, but he hasn’t always finished good. Here’s some of his loop data numbers: Avg Start – 9.4, Avg Midrace – 10.5, Avg Position – 11.5, Avg Finish 18.7. All the numbers are good except the important one. (Yahoo A Driver)

Ryan Newman – Between 2002 and 2005 his average finish was 6.5. From 2006 until now his average finish is 14th. All three of his Monster Mile wins came early in his career. If qualifying is important to you then Ryan Newman should be your guy because his average start (7.7) is the best in the series over the last eleven races. (Yahoo B Driver)

Jeff Gordon –  Gordon usually runs better in the fall race where his average finish over the last four years is 6.75. His spring average finish in the last four years is 12.75. (Yahoo A Driver)

Matt Kenseth – Matt Kenseth is very good at Dover but every year in the Chase one driver becomes a pariah (example: Brian Vickers). Besides my personal intuition there’s lots of good reasons to pick Kenseth. He’s won here before and he’s finished in the top ten fifteen times. (Yahoo B Driver)

Clint Bowyer – Clint Bowyer’s best finish at Dover is 8th and he’s finished in that position three times. His last top ten finish at the Monster Mile was back in 2008. (Yahoo B Driver)

Kevin Harvick – Harvick’s a mediocre driver at Dover but I’m not counting him out of a good finish. Earlier this year he finished 7th and there’s no reason he can’t do that again. (Yahoo B Driver)

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B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin finished fourth this spring at Dover, but not so fast. His fourth place finish was an extremely rare Denny Hamlin moment of success at the Monster mile. He normally always is about a 20th place car. Last fall he finished 22nd and had an average running position of 18th. Also since this is Dover I can’t forget one of my favorite Denny Hamlin moments. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jamie McMurray –  If you need a sleeper this weekend Jamie McMurray is the guy who I would take. He’s had some very impressive performances in the past at Dover. (2008 Yahoo Race Chart, I believe engine problems ruined his day. 2006 Yahoo Race Chart, led the most laps and finished second. Here’s his 2010 spring Yahoo Dover race chart). (Yahoo B Driver)

David Reutimann – Reutimann’s raced at Dover six times and this spring he had his best finish ever (5th). This team has also been running good lately so Reutimann might prove to be a solid sleeper. (Yahoo B Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Kasey Kahne – Kasey Kahne is an extremely high risk driver in my opinion at Dover. Lots of bad things happen to Kahne here. Earlier this year he led 28 laps but his shifter lever broke and he eventually finished 20th. Kahne almost won his first race here but like I said bad things happen to him at the Monster Mile.  (Yahoo B Driver)

Joey Logano – Carl Edwards isn’t the only driver who’s done flips here. Last year Joey was involved in a spectacular wreck at Dover. In his two non-high light reel finishes he’s come home 10th and 15th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Martin Treux Jr. – Truex won the first COT race at Dover but his average finish in the last four races is 21.5. (Yahoo B Driver)

Mark Martin – Earlier this year Martin finished 15th and I really think that’s what you should expect. He’s been very successful at Dover in his career but in fantasy racing you need to live in the present. (Yahoo A Driver)

C+ = Proceed With Caution

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Junior won here in 2001 but he’s only finished in the top ten twice in the last eleven Dover races. His last top ten was in 2007. His average finish since then is 24.2. (Yahoo B Driver)

AJ Allmendinger – AJ started off his Dover career with five straight sub 15th place finishes. In the last two Dover races he’s finished 7th and 14th. (Yahoo C Driver)

C = I’m Not Picking Them

Macros Ambrose – Ambrose is a straight shooter at Dover. His average start and average finish are the same (25.5). This doesn’t give me any confidence in picking him. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Ragan – Ragan’s never finished on the lead lap at Dover. In eight Dover races he’s finished 24th or worse six times. (Yahoo B Driver)

Paul Menard – Menard’s never finished higher than 19th. In six races at Dover he’s finished 21st three times. (Yahoo C Driver)

Sam Hornish Jr. – Hornish has nearly the worst average finish in the series at Dover. In five races he’s only finished on the lead lap once. (Yahoo C Driver)

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Dover Fantasy NASCAR Picks

My Pick : Carl Edwards

Top Onpitrow.com Expert Pick : Kyle Busch

Top Onpitrow.com Darkhorse Pick : David Reutimann