Phoenix Kobalt Tools 500 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
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A= Really, Really Good Pick
Denny Hamlin – Before the spring Phoenix race Hamlin had five straight top six finishes out in the desert (knee surgery). Mike Ford his crew chief has also just said “I think our race team is better than their race team (48), and I’m not going to tiptoe around them because of where they’re at” (CaptinThunderRacing.com). So there you go, book it. He says their the best so it would be a disaster if he lost the championship this year. The 11 team has fumbled in many clutch situations in the past so get your popcorn ready. (Yahoo A)
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has four career wins at Phoenix and hasn’t finished worse than 7th since 2005. His worst finish at Phoenix is 15th. Don’t look for this team to be conservative at all this weekend. (Yahoo A)
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A- = Really Good Pick
Kyle Busch – Check out what I said about Kyle Busch in my Contender or Pretender post. (Yahoo A)
Kevin Harvick – Harvick is a two-time winner but the 29 team has been off their game at Phoenix in recent years. Look for him to finish somewhere between 5th through 10th. (Yahoo B)
Mark Martin – Martin has four straight top fives at Phoenix including a win in 2009. His driver rating over this time period is 111.4 (fantasyracingcheatsheet.com) which is second to only Jimmie Johnson. (Yahoo A)
Tony Stewart – In seventeen races at Phoenix Stewart has one win and nine top tens. If Stewart had another gallon of gas then he would’ve won at New Hampshire (similar track to Phoenix). (Yahoo A)
Clint Bowyer – Clint Bowyer is a flat short track specialist. Look for him to be in the mix at Phoenix even though it’s not his best track. (Yahoo B)
VOTE For who will win at Phoenix
B+ = Good Pick
Jeff Gordon – Jeff Gordon nearly won at Phoenix in spring but Ryan Newman held him off on the last restart. (Yahoo A)
Carl Edwards – Carl Edwards is very good at Phoenix. He has eight top tens and only problems keeps him out of the top ten. (Yahoo A)
Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch is always tough at Phoenix. He has one win and eight top tens in fifteen starts. If he can avoid the Phoenix cops then look for him to challenge for the win. (Yahoo A)
Joey Logano – Logano now has four straight top tens in a row. In the spring he finished 10th. He’s also finished in the top ten at Richmond and New Hampshire this year so watch out for Logano. (Yahoo B)
Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya was very good in the spring race. He led 104 laps and finished 5th. He was also good on similar tracks this year even though he didn’t always finish where he should have. (New Hampshire #1). (Yahoo A)
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Jeff Burton – Jeff Burton had the second best car at Phoenix last fall, but things have changed since then. Burton now has trouble on the track every week. If he’s not wrecking then he’s struggling on tracks that he should be good on. Falling behind by 473 points in 8 races is quite a feat. His history at Phoenix is good, but I have no plans to pick him. (Yahoo B)
Ryan Newman – Newman won in spring but Phoenix has traditionally been a tough track for him. He’s only finished in the top ten in a quarter of the races he’s started. His average finish is 21st. (Yahoo B)
Marcos Ambrose – SLEEPER ALERT, if you need one pick him. He finished 11th in the last two Phoenix races and finished 5th at Richmond. (Yahoo B)
David Reutimann – Reutimann’s a sleeper who you should keep your eyes on at Phoenix. In the last three Phoenix races his average running position is 13.7 and his average finish is 12.7. (Yahoo B)
Martin Treux Jr. – Phoenix is one of Martin’s better tracks. He’s finished in the top ten in half his races at Phoenix. (Yahoo B)
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth won at Phoenix in 2002 and finished sixth earlier in the year. Kenseth hasn’t cracked the top ten on similar tracks this year so I’m not to high on his stock but things do seem to be going better for him in recent weeks. (Yahoo B)
Greg Biffle – Biffle’s had some ups and downs at Phoenix. I think a teens finish should be expected. In thirteen races at Phoenix Biffle has four top tens. (Yahoo A)
AJ Allmendinger – AJ is a semi sleeper at Phoenix. He won the pole this spring and has three teen finishes in four races. In recent similar track races AJ finished 8th at Richmond and 12th at New Hampshire. (Yahoo C)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Jamie McMurray – McMurray only has one career top ten at Phoenix. He was good at New Hampshire (finished 3rd) so he might be a factor despite his track history. His career average finish is 20.93. (Yahoo B)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt Jr. once was an excellent pick at Phoenix, but things changed in 2009. In his first two races at Phoenix with Hendrick Motor Sports Junior finished sixth and seventh. His average finish in his last three races is 26th. If you’re looking for hope which there is some this week he’s been very strong at New Hampshire this year. (Yahoo B)
C+ = Proceed With Caution
Kasey Kahne – Kahne’s last top ten at Phoenix was back in 2005. Since then his average finish is 26.7. On a good day at Phoenix he finishes in the teens. (Yahoo B)
Brad Keselowski – The data about Keselowski is limited. He’s only raced here twice and has finishes of 16th and 37th. In the recent Richmond and New Hampshire races Brad finished in the teens. (Yahoo B)
C = I’m Not Picking Them
Sam Hornish Jr. – I know people who play Yahoo’s fantasy NASCAR game are probably all over Sam Hornish Jr. this week because flat short tracks seem to be his thing. His only top ten this year came on New Hampshire which is a similar track. (Yahoo C)
David Ragan – Ragan was good in 2008 and finished 10th (once). All of his other finishes are 19th or worse. (Yahoo B)
Elliott Sadler – His last top ten at Phoenix was back in 2002 and that also happens to be his only top ten. His last top fifteen finish was back in 2005. (Yahoo B)
Paul Menard – His loop data numbers speak for themselves. Average running position = 29th, Average finish = 27th, Percentage of laps in the top fifteen = 5.9 (fantasyracingcheatsheet.com, last three races). (Yahoo B)
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Phoenix Kobalt Tools 500 Fantasy NASCAR Picks
My Pick : Denny Hamlin
Top Onpitrow.com Expert Pick : Jimmie Johnson
Top Onpitrow.com Darkhorse Pick : Mark Martin
