Homestead Ford 400 Fantasy NASCAR Contender or Pretender

Kevin Harvick – Look for Kevin Harvick to go for the “Hail Mary” at Homestead. Out of the three championship contenders Harvick has the best numbers in the Homestead COT races. His  average finish (2.5), average running position (5.0) average percentage of laps in the top 15 (98.5) and driver rating (120.2) are all the best in the series in the COT (fantasyracingcheatsheet.com).

Tony Stewart – Tony Stewart has won at Homestead multiple times but everything has changed since then, including the track and the car. In the last five Homestead races Stewart has only finished in the top ten once (9th). The more troubling stat is that his average finish in this time period is 18.2 and this number isn’t DNF skewed.

Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson hasn’t really raced at Homestead in five years but even his sandbagging performances are impressive. Last year he finished 5th and didn’t even race aggressively a single lap. After the race Chad Knaus said that the 48 team could win the race if they needed to. This isn’t a Mike Ford flash in the pan comment. In the last 4 Homestead races (which Johnson hasn’t really raced) his average finish is 9th.

Kurt Busch – Homestead has been a tough track for Kurt Busch. Things have either been feast or famine for him in the season finale. His feast or famine trend goes all the way back to 2002 when he won the race that year (different configuration). Here’s his finishes in the last seven starting back when he won, 1st, 36th, 5th, 43rd, 2nd, 43rd, 4th. Kurt has been far from stellar in the Chase and if this trend continues things aren’t looking good for him this weekend.

Carl Edwards – Edwards has the best average finish at Homestead (6.5) and Roush cars have thrived in the Ford 400. Roush cars won the five previous Homestead races until Denny Hamlin won last year. Other Roush drivers to watch are Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle. All three of them could easily finish in the top five.

Kasey Kahne – 2010 hasn’t been an easy year for Kasey Kahne or the 83 team. Kasey Kahne hasn’t been that great at Homestead and the 83 team has been even worse. Red Bull and Brian Vickers have a combined 31.3 average finish at Homestead.