Homestead Ford 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
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A= Really, Really Good Pick
Jimmie Johnson – Look for the premiere driver of this generation to clinch championship number five at Homestead. As was mentioned on the “On Pit Row Radio Show“, look for the “Race To Seis” begin around 5PM Sunday. Jimmie’s an expert sandbagger at Homestead who still managed to finish 5th last year. (Yahoo A)
Carl Edwards – Roush Fords won five consecutive races at Homestead between 2004 and 2008. Loop data wise Carl Edwards has been the fastest car at Homestead. His green flag speed (162.7) is the best in the series. (Yahoo A)
Kevin Harvick – Homestead is a multi-grooved race track and this will play right into Harvick’s hands. No driver in 2010 has been better running the high line around tracks this year. Look for him to go for the “Hail Mary” (Yahoo B)
A- = Really Good Pick
Matt Kenseth – If Kenseth could hang on to his car during the last restart at Texas he would’ve won that race, not Hamlin. Matt Kenseth is a previous winner in the season finale and has finished in the top ten three times in the last five years. (Yahoo B)
Joey Logano – The 20 team has been really good in the Chase. Since Charlotte they’ve finished 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th, and 3rd. Could a 2nd be on the way? (Yahoo B)
Denny Hamlin – So Hamlin’s crew chief said they were the best team in the series. Then before Phoenix Hamlin tried to reel that comment back. After the race Hamlin started pointing fingers at his crew chief over their fuel situation. Like I’ve said in my 2010 Denny Hamlin fantasy preview, this team doesn’t perform well in clutch situations. (Yahoo A)
Greg Biffle – Biffle is a three-time winner at Homestead and has nothing to lose by laying it all out on the line. Biffle’s driver rating is 99.0 (5th best among Chaser’s at Homestead). (Yahoo A)
Jeff Gordon – Gordon has the third best average finish at Homestead (9.5). He’s finished in the top six the last three years. (Yahoo A)
Mark Martin – Martin’s 12th place finish was as ugly as they get last year (Yahoo race chart). In the last two intermediate track races Martin’s finished 6th and 3rd. (Yahoo A)
VOTE For who will win at Homestead
B+ = Good Pick
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has been steady at Homestead. In four races he has finishes of 11th, 5th, 39th, and 10th. Look for him to be solid again. (Yahoo B)
Kyle Busch – His track history isn’t good at Homestead but he wasn’t bad last year. He had a chance to win but brushed the wall late. Here’s his Yahoo race chart from last year. (Yahoo A)
Tony Stewart – Tony Stewart has won at Homestead multiple times but everything has changed since then, including the track and the car. In the last five Homestead races Stewart has only finished in the top ten once (9th). The more troubling stat is that his average finish in this time period is 18.2 and this number isn’t DNF skewed. (Yahoo A)
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Jeff Burton – Burton was stellar last year and finished 2nd. The problem is that his good finishes have been sporadic at Homestead. He’s only finished in the top ten twice since the track was reconfigured. (Yahoo B)
Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya had a really good car last year but was denied a good finish. Stewart cut Montoya’s tire but guess who had the last laugh. Videos of the incident: Youtube Video 1, Youtube Video 2. It’s interesting because Montoya got penalized and we seen an incident similar to this at Kansas. (Yahoo A)
Kurt Busch – Homestead has been a tough track for Kurt Busch. Things have either been feast or famine for him in the season finale. His feast or famine trend goes all the way back to 2002 when he won the race that year (different configuration). Here’s his finishes in the last seven starting back when he won, 1st, 36th, 5th, 43rd, 2nd, 43rd, 4th. Kurt has been far from stellar in the Chase and if this trend continues things aren’t looking good for him this weekend. (Yahoo A)
David Ragan – Ragan finished 10th in his rookie year but the positive things going for Ragan are his Texas (8th) and Charlotte (10th) performances. When you combine this factor with a Ford track then good things can happen. (Yahoo B)
David Reutimann – Reutimann has improved his finishing position by five spots each time he’s raced at Homestead. If this trend continues then he should finish 10th Sunday. (Yahoo B)
Jamie McMurray – Besides Charlotte McMurray has only been about a 15th place car at recent intermediate track races. His five-year average finish is 17.6. (Yahoo B)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Martin Treux Jr. – Treux has finished in the top ten at Homestead the last four years. I don’t see it happening again. His last top ten on an intermediate track was Michigan (August). (Yahoo B)
Paul Menard – Menard’s never finished inside the top fifteen at Homestead. In recent intermediate track races he’s been finishing in the top ten about fifty percent of the time. (Yahoo C)
AJ Allmendinger – Homestead has been a good track for AJ. In his two races he’s finished 10th and 11th. Before Kahne left the organization AJ was doing better than ever. Now this team seems like they’ve taken a half step back Perhaps the culprit is their financial situation accompanied by lack of preparation. (Yahoo C)
C+ = Proceed With Caution
Ryan Newman – Newman’s last top ten at Homestead was five years ago. This track has really been a struggle for him. His average finish is 20.6. (Yahoo B)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – He’s never finished in the top ten at Homestead. I’m wondering why in the world did this team not change crew chiefs 10 races ago. Things are not going to work with Lance McGrew. (Yahoo B)
Kasey Kahne – 2010 hasn’t been an easy year for Kasey Kahne or the 83 team. Kasey Kahne hasn’t been that great at Homestead and the 83 team has been even worse. Red Bull and Brian Vickers have a combined 31.3 average finish at Homestead. (Yahoo B)
C = I’m Not Picking Them
Marcos Ambrose – Things haven’t gone smoothly for Ambrose in 2010. Last year Marcos Ambrose was looking like the car to beat for the first fifteen laps but early problems ruined his day. Check out his Yahoo race chart from last year. (Yahoo B)
Brad Keselowski – On intermediate tracks this year Brad’s consistently been about a mid twenties car so why should things change now. (Yahoo B)
Elliott Sadler – Since Homestead was reconfigured Elliott Sadler hasn’t cracked the top fifteen. His average finish on the new layout is 31.6. (Yahoo B)
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Homestead Ford 400 Fantasy NASCAR Picks
My Pick : Denny Hamlin
Top Onpitrow.com Expert Pick : Denny Hamlin
Top Onpitrow.com Darkhorse Pick : Joey Logano
