Daytona 500 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

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A= Really, Really Good Pick

Kevin Harvick – No one was better than Harvick on the plate tracks last season. Harvick won the July Daytona race and the spring Talladega race. Last year during  Speed Weeks Harvick won the Budweiser Shootout, finished second to Jimmie Johnson by inches in his duel race and had the best car in “The Great American Race”. Harvick is a prior Daytona 500 winner and last season he scored more points than any driver on the plate tracks. Kevin Harvick is also the odds on favorite to win the 2011 Daytona 500. (Yahoo A List)

Clint Bowyer – Last year Clint Bowyer took the checkered flag in Alabama and was a front runner in both Daytona races. In the 2010 Daytona 500 he was running in the front of the pack but got shuffled out late. In the July Daytona race he was leading at the start of the last green-white-checker but got spun. Bowyer’s career average finish is the best among all active drivers (12.8). (Yahoo B List)

Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch used to be the best restrictor plate driver who’s never won before but now he’s the best restrictor plate driver who’s never won a points paying race. (Yahoo A List)

A- = Really Good Pick

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Say what you want to say about him from Phoenix to Homestead but he has Earnhardt magic on his side at Daytona. Last year in the Great American race he finished second to Jamie McMurray. Earnhardt Jr. was the only driver to finish in the top five in both races last year. Starting from the pole certainly won’t hurt his chances. (Yahoo B List)

Matt Kenseth – What’s your Daytona fantasy goal? Is it to avoid trouble? If so then consider Kenseth. The 2009 Daytona 500 winner seems to almost always get down played across the board but in the last four Daytona races he hasn’t finished lower than 15th. Does that make you want to sign up now? (Yahoo A List)

Carl Edwards – Cousin Carl usually performs better in the July race but I still like him for the 500. Last year in this race he finished 9th. His average finish in the last four Daytona races is the third best (9.25) and he’s finished in the top ten 75% of the time. (Yahoo A List)

B+ = Good Pick

Tony Stewart – Tony Stewart wasn’t very good at Daytona last year but don’t count him out. He’s had this race won before, he just didn’t cross the finish line first. So far he’s won nearly everything at Daytona except the 500. In the last four Daytona races only Kyle Busch has led more laps. If starting position matters to you take note that no driver has a better average starting position then Stewart. Since Loop Data was first recorded Stewart has accumulated the highest driver rating in the series (100.7). (Yahoo A List)

Jamie McMurray – Does lightning strike twice? I don’t know the answer to that but I do know McMurray has won twice at Daytona. In the Bud Shootout he finished second to Kurt Busch. (Yahoo B List)

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has been a serious contender in many recent Daytona races so there’s no reason why he won’t be again. From my experience though he’s run into more problems than he’s worth. His average finish in the last four Daytona races is 27.25. Kyle has led more laps than anyone over this time period. (Yahoo A List)

Jeff Gordon – This front row starter has had his share of rough times at Daytona recently. Last July he finished 3rd but beyond that he’s only finished inside the top fifteen one other race since 2008. If you’re in an allocation league I certainly wouldn’t pick him. (Yahoo A List)

Mark Martin – Last season Martin finished in the top 12 in three of the four plate races. In terms of his Daytona finishes his average finish is much better in the 500 then it is in the July night race.

Average Finish at Daytona since 2007:

Daytona 500 -15.25

July Night Race – 23.25

(Yahoo B List)

Jimmie Johnson – Here’s what I said about Jimmie Johnson in his 2011 ifantasyrace.com preview, “When it comes to plate racing the only time I would use Johnson is in the Talladega Chase race. His non-racing strategy really works. His average finish in that race over the last four years is 6th. By career numbers Johnson has finished in the top ten nearly 50% of the time on this track type”. (Yahoo A List)

B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Brian Vickers – Half of Vickers career wins have come on plate tracks but even in that race he was a third place car (You Tube video of that incident). Vickers has finished in the top fifteen at Daytona in four out of the last five races. Will his extended absence be a problem? Absolutely not. (Yahoo B List)

David Reutimann – Check out what I said about David Reutimann in his 2011 ifantasyrace.com driver preview, “Reutimann was a very improved driver in 2010 on these tracks. In 2009 his best plate finish was 15th. In 2010 his worst plate finish was 14th. His 2010 average finish at these wild card venues was 8.5”. (Yahoo B List)

Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya has been steady at Daytona in recent races.  In three out of his last four starts he’s finished 14th or better. This race is going to be wild and Montoya can be as wild as anyone. Last year Montoya finished 8th. (Yahoo B List)

Jeff Burton – Jeff Burton looked strong in the Shootout but when push came to shove he disappeared. Jeff Burton is good at finding trouble and it’s not beyond the realm of possibility he’ll find it again. Last year in the July race Burton finished 5th. (Yahoo B List)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has struggled throughout Speed Weeks. Nothing has gone well for him. Every time he’s been on the track since Texas when crew chief Mike Ford made his statement things have been apocalyptic for the 11 team. Last year in Daytona Hamlin finished 17th and 24th. (Yahoo A List)

Brad Keselowski – Brad’s Daytona average finish is 29.3, but don’t let that scare you away. With the track resurfacing I think we can throw away the stats for Brad Keselowski because now it should race like Talladega. At Talladega Brad has one win and three top tens in four races. (Yahoo B List)

David Ragan – Last year Ragan didn’t even crack the top fifteen at Daytona.  Up until last year Ragan finished in the top six at least once a year at NASCAR’s most historical track. If you need a sleeper consider him. (Yahoo C List)

C+ = Proceed With Caution

Greg Biffle – Last year Biffle finished 3rd in the Daytona 500 but his average finish in the last eight races is 19.375. In these eight racesBiffle only finished higher than 15th twice. (Yahoo A List)

Joey Logano – With a 27.75 average finish at Daytona it would be irresponsible for me to tell you to pick him. It seemed to me like he had a lot of hype in the Shootout but that certainly fizzled quickly. (Yahoo B List)

Martin Truex Jr. – Here’s what I said about Truex in my 2011 fantasy preview of him: “ In 2010 he performed uncharacteristically good on these wild card tracks. He finished 6th twice, 12th and 35th. If you look in his past you won’t find similar results”.

Martin Truex Jr. is good at finding trouble on the track. I would put the odds at 75% that if you pick him you’ll regret it. (Yahoo B List)

Paul Menard – Last year Menard finished 13th and 18th at Daytona. It will be interesting to see how Menard fares with his new team. The positives he has going for him are that he’s in an RCR car and he still has his old crew chief. (Yahoo C List)

C = I’m Not Picking Them

Kasey Kahne – Kasey Kahne is one of those drivers who I call a “DNF Magnet”. Trouble is never far from him. In the last two Daytona 500’s he finished 29th and 30th. In the prior two Daytona 500’s he finished 7th both times. (Yahoo B List)

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger’s been good in recent Daytona 500’s but the track is a totally different beast this year. Last year Allmendinger’s strength was how good his car handled. This year that advantage is gone and that’s why I don’t favor AJ. Allmendinger’s average finish is 26th. (Yahoo B List)

Ryan Newman – The 2008 Daytona 500 winner really hasn’t had much go right for him since he won. Newman’s best finish since he got the “W” is 20th, and his average finish in this time span is 30.4. Can you say avoid? (Yahoo B List)

Marcos Ambose – In Daytona points paying races Ambrose has finished outside the fifteen seventy-five percent of the time. His average finish is 24th. (Yahoo B List)

VOTE FOR WHO YOU THINK WILL WIN THE DAYTONA 500

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My Pick : Kevin Harvick

Onpitrow.com Expert Picks: Kevin Harvick

Onpitrow.com Sleeper Picks: Dale Earnhardt Jr.