Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Bristol – Jeff Byrd 500 (Post Happy Hour, Post Qualifying)

Edwards Off To A Fast Start In 2011

In case you missed qualifying on Friday, Carl Edwards grabbed his second pole of this young season at Bristol Motor Speedway. The complete starting order can be found by clicking here. Qualifying is important here, with 80% of past winners coming from a top ten starting spot. Over half of the winners at Bristol started inside the top five, with 22% winning from the pole. Bristol is definitely the race to pick an underdog or two, as it seems like lately they have had good runs here. Regan Smith, Paul Menard, and David Ragan will all start in the top five on Sunday.

There are two races held at Bristol Motor Speedway every year. During the first race at Bristol last year, Kurt Busch led the most laps (278) but it was Jimmie Johnson who wound up in victory lane. Complete spring race results can be found by clicking here. In August, Kyle Busch got back to his winning ways, leading 282 laps and holding off a surprisingly fast David Reutimann in the end. Click here for the finishing order of the 2010 fall race at Bristol.

Top Fifteen For The Jeff Byrd 500:

1. Kyle Busch – Starts 12th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$27.32 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
This is turning out to be a typical Bristol weekend for ol’ “Rowdy” Busch: he qualified decently (actually better than normal), he was mid-twenties in practice, and giving you every reason to second guess picking him. He practiced mid-twenties in both races last year, and we all know how that turned out. Don’t worry about that, though, because come race day, Busch will be up fighting for the lead in no time. His teammates were super fast in practice, and I’m not so sure Kyle wasn’t just testing out new setups to get an upper hand on the competition. The last two times Busch has started in the top fifteen he has went on to finish 1st and 2nd. Love him or hate him, this is the week for “Rowdy” to be on your roster. Oh yeah, by the way: Busch has found victory lane in three of the last four races at Bristol.

2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 6th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$28.42 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: +3 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
“Five Time” was blazingly fast in practice, posting the best average practice speed by over four-tenths of a mile-per-hour. However, most of those lap times were recorded while he was running on the older tires. As I said in my practice breakdown, I don’t have the information to compare the different tire sets for each time. Nonetheless, Johnson was fast, and he starts 6th. He’s been awesome here lately, with an average driver rating of 116.2 over the past two years (and that’s including the race when he got wrecked by Montoya). He is a risky pick this week, though, believe it or not. Prior to 2009, Johnson’s previous top ten finish was in 2006, and that was his only one from 2005-2008. I also don’t think Johnson has been running very well this season, so take that into account if you plan on picking him this week. He won the spring race here last year.

3. Carl Edwards – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$28.16 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Cousin Carl took the momentum from Las Vegas and carried that into Bristol as he won the pole on Friday afternoon for this week’s race. Will that translate into another victory, though? It’s possible. Edwards looked great in second practice, posting the second fastest average speed in the session. But then Happy Hour started, and the 99 Ford couldn’t find the speed it had before. I’m not sure what happened there, but they were part of only a handful of teams to run just double-digit laps in practice, so they may have been just working on new setups, already knowing that their car is good. His practice numbers are discouraging, but the last time he started on the pole at Bristol he won the race, and Edwards has won three of the last five Sprint Cup races. He finished 6th and 12th at Bristol in 2010, and recorded five top tens in six races at the short tracks last season.

4. Tony Stewart – Starts 13th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$28.93 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: +8 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I quickly realized on Saturday that “Smoke” will probably make most of my rosters this week. Like I always say, if Stewart is pretty fast in practice, he’s going to be super fast in the race (remember the race at Vegas?). Stewart ended up 9th on the average practice sheet (6th in Happy Hour), and had the 4th-best ten-lap average in the final practice session. After the disappointment at Vegas, I think Tony will have something to prove this week in Tennessee, and he has a car that can get to the front. He has led just two laps in the past five races here, so don’t expect a dominating performance out of him, but he finished 2nd last year in this race–and a top five certainly isn’t out of the question this weekend. He’s on a roll, which I like, and has won here before.

5. Denny Hamlin – Starts 25th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$29.71 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
It’s hard to go against Hamlin on short tracks, especially when he has a fast race car. In Happy Hour, the #11 Toyota found the top of the ten-lap average sheet and was 3rd in overall speed. Hamlin was also 6th in ten-lap average during the first practice session. Last year was a bit of a downer for Denny at Bristol–posting finishes of 19th and 34th–but before that he was on a streak of four finishes in the top six. He’s never won here, but Hamlin has finished in the top ten in half of his races ran at Bristol.

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$18.43 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: -2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Junior hasn’t been as flashy as I would have liked to see this weekend, but it’s shaping up to be another good run for him at Bristol. He starts 22nd, which is his best qualifying effort this season (excluding Daytona), and he ended up 8th on the average practice sheet (9th in Happy Hour). Little E didn’t run ten consecutive laps in either practice, which concerns me, but this is his best track and he has two top tens in a row after Vegas two weeks ago (when’s the last time you could say that?). At Bristol, Earnhardt Jr hasn’t finished outside of the top twenty since 2001, and has two top tens in his past three starts here. Expect him to make that three in his past four after Sunday.

7. Kurt Busch – Starts 20th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$28.01 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: -5 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
The elder Busch brother is on a streak of three top tens at Bristol, and don’t expect that streak to end this weekend. The “Double-Deuce” was decent in practice, posting the 20th-best average practice speed, and he was 7th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Kurt started 20th in the fall race last season and wound up finishing 9th. It’s hard to go against someone who hasn’t finished worse than 15th since 2007 at Bristol, and Kurt hasn’t finished outside of the top ten in this young 2011 season. His driver rating over the last two years in “Thunder Valley” is third-best in the series.

8. Ryan Newman – Starts 21st – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$20.19 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: -2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
One of the surprises during qualifying was how fast Ryan Newman wasn’t. His average start at Bristol has been 9.2 over his eighteen races here, so it was weird to see “The Rocketman” settle into 21st when it was all said and done. He has started outside of the top twenty just three times at Bristol, and those races have given him finishes of 16th, 39th, and 8th. When you just look at the Saturday speeds, Newman was 12th across the board. He was 9th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour and 3rd in ten-lap average in second practice. In five of the last seven races at Bristol, Newman has finished 6th or 7th, and I think that is right around where he will end up on Sunday. He hasn’t had a top five here since 2004, though, so don’t expect a great run.

9. Kevin Harvick – Starts 15th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$29.23 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Harvick hasn’t been himself at Bristol over the past two years. His average finish over those four races is 23.25, and his best driver rating has been just 72.2 (11th-place finish). Before 2009, though, Harvick was unstoppable during the spring race here, posting seven straight top tens (five of them top fives). In his career, “Happy” has an average finish of 12.3 at Bristol and one win (coming in 2005). Harvick looked sporty in practice, posting the fourth-best average speed, and we all know Richard Childress Racing needs someone other than Paul Menard to be in the top ten in points. Harvick has the best shot to do that this week, currently sitting 20th in points (sixteen points out of 10th).

10. Greg Biffle – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$27.62 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: -3 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I’d really like to know the reason behind all of the Roush Fords looking terrible in Happy Hour. The front-runner of the stable was Matt Kenseth, but he wasn’t happy with the handling of his car at all (even though it was fast). “The Biff” was 34th in Happy Hour in terms of average speed, but he was 10th in second practice. In the last eight races at Bristol, Biffle has finished 11th or better in seven of them, and I don’t think that he will finish worse than that this week (especially because he starts up front). It’s hard to overlook the lacking speed in Happy Hour, though, so I’m not going to completely suggest Biffle make your rosters this week. I think there are better choices, but the 16 Ford has three straight top tens at Bristol (including two 4th-place efforts).

11. Matt Kenseth – Starts 11th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$28.36 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: -3 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Hopefully the bad luck from Las Vegas has gone away from the 17 crew. Kenseth was fast in Happy Hour, posting the 9th-best average speed, and wound up 7th on the overall average speed chart. He’s consistent at Bristol, which I like, and has two wins in his 22 career starts. Since 2002 (eighteen races) Kenseth’s worst finish has just two finishes outside of the top twenty and fourteen top 10s. He won’t be near the front all race leading a bunch of laps, but you can count on Kenseth for a solid top fifteen this week (if not a top ten).

12. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 8th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$18.49 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
I generally don’t like Truex Jr because of his inconsistency and bad luck, but I have a hunch about him this week in Bristol. He’s coming off a solid 6th-place finish in Las Vegas after his 14th-place run in Phoenix. Last year, Truex always showed great speed in practice (especially in average speed), but would then disappoint on race day. And that’s certainly possible this weekend, which is why I am placing him in the “High Risk” category. He starts 8th, though, his best qualifying effort at Bristol, and was solid in every practice (in terms of average speed). He hasn’t had a top ten here yet, but Truex’s last two starts in “Thunder Valley” have given him 17th and 12th-place finishes. I could see him challenging for his first career top ten this weekend, but I won’t be surprised if he ends up with a mid-twenties finish.

13. David Reutimann – Starts 26th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$18.24 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Reutimann was 11th in average speed throughout this entire weekend, and was in the top ten in both sessions in terms of ten-lap average. He starts 26th, which is uncharacteristic of him, but if he can stay on the lead lap early, I think the #00 Toyota should fight for a top fifteen finish on Sunday (possibly a top ten). He ran second to Kyle Busch here in August, so hopefully he didn’t forget too much about this track. I thought he a had a real good car two weeks ago, and he ended up 13th. They say Vegas is the place to start streaks, so maybe Reutimann can get his season back on track and post more top 15s.

14. Jeff Gordon – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$27.64 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: -3 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pretty much the only reason Gordon is ranked this week is because he is starting 7th and I know how important qualifying is here. He looked almost as bad as Biffle in practice on Saturday, ending up 29th in average speed. He was 17th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Gordon’s last three finishes here have been 11th, 14th, and 23rd, but he has won here five times before. I think a top fifteen is possible, and more likely than a top ten this week, but you never know. His new crew chief, Alan Gustafson, was paired with Mark Martin in 2010, and they posted finishes of 23rd and 35th.

15. Brad Keselowski – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$16.67 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I said before that this is the week to put some underdogs on your roster, and they have been sprinkled near the top all weekend (did you see the top five in qualifying?). Keselowski ended up 6th in average speed and 11th during Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap averages. I would have liked to see him qualify better, but in his first start at “The Bullring,” he started 36th and wound up 13th. His other career start netted him a finish of 19th here. Keselowski might put the “Blue Deuce” back in the top ten at Bristol, but a solid top fifteen is more likely.

“Surprise” Picks For The Jeff Byrd 500:

Paul Menard – He made my underdog list in my preview article, and I think Menard has a good shot at collecting a career best finish at Bristol this weekend. He starts 4th and was 3rd in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Will he finish top five? I doubt it. But he’s on a roll to start this season and he could easily post a top fifteen. His career average finish here is 22.9 and he has finished worse than 25th only once in seven career starts at “The Bullring.”

David Gilliland – No, I’m not drunk. Gilliland starts 29th (a good effort for him) and was 8th in Happy Hour average speed (10th in ten-lap average in that session). In 2010, he finished 23rd and 26th here. Do I think he will get a top fifteen? Hell no. Is a mid-twenties finish out of the question? Not at all. If he can stay on the lead lap, I think Gilliland could post a finish around 18th-23rd, which would be very valuable (especially in allocation leagues). After his 3rd-place run at Daytona, he Gilliland finished 22nd at Phoenix. It’s Bristol, baby! Anything can happen.

Marcos Ambrose – Coming off of a top five finish at Las Vegas, will Ambrose be able to ride that momentum to a good finish in Bristol? He starts 14th and was 13th best in second practice average speed (28th in Happy Hour). I always have my eye on Ambrose at short tracks, and his first two starts at “Thunder Valley” gave him finishes of 10th and 3rd.

Stay Away From These Drivers For The Jeff Byrd 500:

Juan Montoya – Montoya has started outside of the top 30 two times in his career at Bristol, and those races have ended with 19th and 32nd-place finishes for him. He looked fast in practice, but he’s too hot-headed and risky for me to expect a good finish out of him. Juan has just two top tens in eight starts at Bristol.

Regan Smith – Smith has started in the top five just one other time at Bristol, and that gave him a 14th-place finish. Other than that, his best finish has been 25th–and that came in his first start here. He could surprise many and post a top fifteen, but you won’t find him on any of my rosters. Over the last two Sprint Cup races, Smith has started 5th and 12th, while finishing 34th and 39th. Expect to see the #78 car to fall back early on Sunday.

Mark Martin – I’m sticking with my original thought of “Avoid Mark Martin.” He started 13th in both races at Bristol last season and ended up with finishes of 23rd and 35th. As I said in my preview, he’s not running very well in races–but good in practice. He starts 9th on Sunday, but I would honestly be surprised if he ends up on the lead lap.

My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:

OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Jimmie Johnson, Darkhorse – Kyle Busch
Yahoo!: A-List: Greg Biffle, B-List: Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Joey Logano C-List: Paul Menard
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Martin Truex, Jr., Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Brad Keselowski
Racing4Glory.com “The Showdown”: Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Jimmie Johnson

As I said before, throw in a couple underdogs when you make your roster this week.
Anything can happen at Bristol, and with the tire change I’m not exactly sure if practice speeds matter.
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