Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: California – Auto Club 400 (Post Happy Hour, Post Qualifying)

Can Jimmie Win Again At Fontana?

Juan Montoya grabbed the sixth pole of his career on Friday, just beating out Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin. It is the first pole at Auto Club Speedway for Montoya. The entire starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Qualifying isn’t as important here as many would think, though. Of the twenty top ten finishers at Fontana in 2010 (two races), only six of them started there. It is more important to have a car that will be good on the long runs because chances are, cautions will be few and far between on Sunday.

This will be the first year that there aren’t two races held at Auto Club Speedway during the season. In last year’s spring race, Jimmie Johnson led over 100 laps en route to his first win of the season. Complete results for that race can be found by clicking here. Tony Stewart took the checkered flag in the October Race here, even though most of the laps led that day were between Clint Bowyer and Mark Martin who finished 2nd and 6th, respectively. Johnson was the only driver to post top fives in both of those races. For the results of the fall race at Fontana, click here (drivers are ranked in terms of their average practice speed that weekend and their finishes are shown below it).

Top Fifteen For The Auto Club 400:

1. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 16th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 18.0 (two wins)
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus didn’t seem extremely happy with their car during practice, but the practice speeds showed differently. The 48 car ended up 3rd during Happy Hour in terms of average speed (8th overall on Saturday) and was 3rd in terms of ten-lap average. If that isn’t fast enough for them, then I don’t know what is. Fontana is Jimmie’s second-best track with a career average finish of just below 5th. He’s finished worse than 3rd just once in the past eight races and you have to go back to 2006 to find the last time Jimmie wasn’t in the top ten here. Going into the week, it worried me how much Johnson struggled at Las Vegas, but with the fast practice speed and his history here, it’s a no-brainer for me that we will see the #48 Chevy up front on Sunday.

2. Tony Stewart – Starts 5th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.0
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
“Smoke” has been great at Auto Club Speedway over the past two years: he notched his first win at this track back in October and hasn’t finished worse than 9th. In his first nine starts at this track, he had mixed results, but over the last nine, Stewart has amassed seven top 10s and a worst finish of 22nd. He had the most dominant car at Las Vegas but finished second, and I see no reason why we won’t see Tony near the front all day on Sunday. He starts 5th, his best qualifying effort here since 2003, and was the top driver in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He ranked sixth in average speed during that practice session as well and wound up 11th overall.

3. Clint Bowyer – Starts 17th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.5
**Change from my preview: +5 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Bowyer was so confident with his car during Happy Hour that he ended practice fifteen minutes early. He desperately needs a good run to get his season back on track and this is the perfect track for him to do that. Clint, in ten career starts at Auto Club Speedway, has never finished worse than 20th and has a career average finish here of 11th. He posted a career-best finish of 2nd in last year’s fall race after leading 40 laps. Bowyer was in the top five in both practice sessions (in terms of ten-lap average) and wound up 3rd on the average practice sheet. Can Clint get his first top ten of the season? It’s looking good right now, and he could end up in victory lane on Sunday.

4. Kevin Harvick – Starts 24th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.5
**Change from my preview: +6 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I’m really liking the Richard Childress Racing Chevrolets this week. They didn’t qualify very well (but really, when do they?) but they were the class of the field on Saturday. Harvick finished 2nd and 7th at California last year, and he is on a streak of three top 10s at this track. In terms of average practice speed, “Happy” ended up 4th on the chart on Saturday and was 12th in Happy Hour. He didn’t post a run of at least ten consecutive laps, but he should have data from his teammates to know what will happen to the car over a long run. Over his career, Harvick hasn’t been stellar by any means at Fontana (17.1 career average finish), but he’s wound up in the top ten in five of the last six races held here. Kevin is running the same car that he finished 2nd with at Las Vegas with in 2010.

5. Carl Edwards – Starts 18th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 22.0
**Change from my preview: -3 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Cousin Carl is off to a fast start this season and I don’t see that slowing down this week. He owns a career average finish of 9.2 at this track and won here in 2008. Last year was an off-year for him, though, as he posted finishes of 13th and 34th, but before that, Edwards finished in the top seven in all but one of the races he started here from 2004 to 2009. Carl is one of the best at these intermediate tracks and he’s almost a lock for a top five when he has a good car. In terms of average speed, Edwards was 2nd overall and 7th during Happy Hour. Unless there’s some freak accident involving Carl on Sunday, expect another good run for the #99 Ford.

6. Mark Martin – Starts 10th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 6.5
**Change from my preview: +7 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I still don’t think Mark “The Kid” Martin has been running as good as he could be this year, but last week’s performance at Bristol swayed my opinion a bit. He was the fastest car in terms of average practice speed, ranking both 1st overall and the best in the Happy Hour session. Martin got off to a rough start with Hendrick Motorsports at Fontana with a 40th place finish (engine problem), but since then he has finished 4th, 4th, and 6th for them at this track. Mark’s career average finish here is 13.3 and he seemed pretty happy with his car in practice–let’s just hope he races to his potential on Sunday.

7. Jeff Gordon – Starts 29th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 18.8
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Gordon has the second-best average driver rating at Fontana over the past two years, and that doesn’t surprise me one bit: he’s finished 1st or 2nd at this track seven times, so he obviously knows how to race here. Jeff will roll off the grid 29th on Sunday, and that will be the worst starting position for him in 22 races at this track. He should find his way up through the field quickly, though. Gordon was 5th in average practice speed and 6th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Jeff’s career average finish at Auto Club Speedway 10.9 and he has three top 10s in his past four starts here.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 30th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 12.3
**Change from my preview: +6 spots. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
If, for some reason, you are against loading up on Childress cars this week, go with the Chevrolets in the Hendrick stable. I think Junior, like Gordon, will come up through the field on Sunday and both record solid top ten finishes. I love picking Little E when he is on a roll, and I’m not changing my mind about that this week. Junior really surprised me at Las Vegas but I won’t be surprised this week when he gets to the top ten. He was fast in practice (especially Happy Hour), posting the 6th-fastest average practice speed on Saturday. In terms of ten-lap average in the final practice session, Junior found himself 4th on that list. He hasn’t had a top ten here since 2007 and his career average finish is 22.3, but you know what they say: high risk, high reward.

9. Denny Hamlin – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 7.8 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +6 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Denny was awesome at Fontana’s sister track (Michigan) in 2010, posting finishes of 1st and 2nd, but his results here weren’t as good. He finished 29th in the spring race at Auto Club Speedway, but turned around and posted a solid 8th-place finish in October. He starts 2nd, so I expect him to lead early, but I don’t think he will stay up there. Hamlin was 7th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour, but ended up just 24th on the average practice sheet. Joe Gibbs Racing has been having problems with their engines this year, which worries me about picking Hamlin this week. Teammate Kyle Busch qualified in the top five at Las Vegas but went down in flames (literally) with engine problems. Do they have the issues figured out? If so, a top ten isn’t out of the question for Denny. Hamlin’s career average finish here is 17.2.

10. Kyle Busch – Starts 8th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 18.3
**Change from my preview: -5 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
“Rowdy” won at this track in 2005 and went on to record seven more top tens in a row at this track, which is no easy task at these intermediate speedways. He hasn’t had a top ten here since the spring race of 2009, though, and that worries me (as well as the engine issues at Gibbs I just mentioned with teammate Denny Hamlin). However, Kyle was 10th in average practice speed and wound up 9th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Busch is usually a great pick after a win, but I’m not expecting a great performance this weekend from Kyle (although I could easily be wrong).

11. Paul Menard – Starts 15th – Yahoo! Fantasy C Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.3
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
As I stated in my preview, Menard isn’t very good at this track, but he has posted career-best finishes at every race in 2011 thus far, so why not another this week? Last year at Fontana, Menard posted finishes of 18th and 22nd, and that 18th is his best here. In terms of ten-lap average in Happy Hour, Paul wound up 10th, and he was 9th in average practice speed on Saturday. He finished 12th in Las Vegas, and I think that is right around where he will end up this week in California, which is still a great run for this young man.

12. Brian Vickers – Starts 19th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 18.8
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I don’t think many expected Vickers to get a top ten in Las Vegas, but he did, and it’s not out of the question for him to finish there this weekend. He ranked 7th in average practice speed and Vickers has finished between 8th and 12th at Fontana in six of his last seven starts here. Red Bull Racing is at their best on these types of tracks, and you know Vickers is itching to have a great run after missing almost an entire racing season.

13. Jeff Burton – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 19.5
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
This team desperately needs a good run because nothing–literally, nothing–has gone their way this year. Burton posted a pretty good qualifying lap and ended up 5th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour (as well as 13th in average speed). His career average finish here is 17th and last year he posted finishes of 3rd and 23rd. Burton is a risky pick this week not only because he’s doing so terrible in the young 2011 season, but he’s also struggled at Auto Club Speedway lately. That 3rd-place finish in 2010 is Jeff’s only top ten finish in the past five races here.

14. Matt Kenseth – Starts 11th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 12.5
**Change from my preview: -10 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kenseth has been under the radar for pretty much the entire weekend, which is probably a good thing because he tends to have a bad race when everyone thinks he has a car that will find victory lane. You won’t see the #17 Ford taking the checkered flag this weekend, but you can’t go against him on these intermediate tracks. This ranking will probably end up being a little low, but I put him in 14th just because Kenseth didn’t overly impress in practice. He does have three wins here, though, and a career average finish of 10.3 at Fontana is good enough for me to put Kenseth of some of my rosters this weekend.

15. Juan Montoya – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
—Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 11.3
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Over the past two years at Auto Club Speedway, Montoya has the 8th-best average driver rating in the series, but just the 14th-best average finish over that time span. He’s started in the top five in each of his past three starts here, but Montoya owns just one top ten finish in those races (a 3rd in 2009), which is also his only top ten in his eight career starts here. It’s also risky to take Juan on the ovals, as you will probably either get a top five finish or one around the 20’s. Montoya was 13th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour and wound up 23rd on the average speed chart.

“Surprise” Picks For The Auto Club 400:

Trevor Bayne – In his first career start, Bayne posted a 17th-place finish at Texas. His next intermediate track start netted him a 20th (at Las Vegas earlier this season). Will Bayne score another top 20 in California this weekend? It’s looking like a good possibility. He was 4th in average practice speed during Happy Hour and wound up 12th overall. If he can keep the fenders clean, we just may see a second top ten for Trevor Bayne in 2011.

Ryan Newman – Newman isn’t a top intermediate driver, but with a little luck he can score a good finish (like his top five in Las Vegas because of the two tire pit stop). Newman was 15th in average practice speed and starts 9th. Many people will choose to stay away from “The Rocketman” this weekend because his average finish here is 19th, but Newman finished 5th here last fall. Will he score a top five again this week? I doubt it, but he could surprise many with a top ten run on Sunday.

David Ragan – Ragan had a great car at Las Vegas but spun in qualifying and wound up finishing in the mid-twenties. He didn’t spin on Friday and will roll off the grid 6th tomorrow afternoon. You always have to keep Ragan in the back of your mind at these type of tracks, and when he has a fast car he can really boost your fantasy team. He was 9th in Happy Hour average speed.

Stay Away From These Drivers For The Auto Club 400:

Greg Biffle – I’m not sure what’s up with “The Biff” this weekend, but I don’t like it. He starts 32nd, which isn’t a big deal if you have a fast car, but quite simply put, Biffle doesn’t–he wound up 25th in average speed on Saturday. There are better week’s to use Biffle and his best finish here in the past three races is 10th (his other finishes were 20th and 41st).

Kurt Busch – Do you remember the last race at Fontana? Kurt Busch, as well as the entire Penske stable, were bad all weekend. It seems like they still haven’t fixed their problems. Kurt qualified 23rd on Friday and his average speed rank on Saturday was an absymal 30th. It will take a lot of luck for Busch to extend his top ten streak this season, and I think best-case scenario he gets a 15th.

Brad Keselowski – Like I said before, Penske was terrible in the October race at Auto Club Speedway, and they look terrible here again. Keselowski was 33rd in average practice speed and I think he will be lucky just to finish where he starts (21st). In 2010 at this track, Brad finished 21st and 26th.

My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:

OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Tony Stewart,  Darkhorse – Clint Bowyer
Yahoo!: A-List: Jimmie Johnson, B-List: Brian Vickers, Clint Bowyer C-List: Trevor Bayne
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Trevor Bayne
Racing4Glory.com “The Showdown”: Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Mark Martin, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Clint Bowyer, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kevin Harvick

For my final fantasy picks, be sure to follow me on Twitter, and be sure to check out NASCAR Nation as well–there are many cool people on there to chat with during the week or during the race.