Texas Samsung Mobile 500 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
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A= Really, Really Good Pick
Carl Edwards – Carl Edwards is the only three time winner at Texas Motor Speedway and he’s the Las Vegas winner. There’s not a safer pick this week. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kyle Busch – If freedom of speech demonstrations and engine problems don’t come into play Kyle Busch will be tough to beat. Last year in the spring race he finished 3rd and in the fall race he was strong but came away with nothing to show for it. Joe Gibbs Racing claims to have found their engine problems so proceed at your own risk. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kevin Harvick – Harvick’s only led 5 laps at TMS but don’t pick against this back to back winner. He has three straight top tens at Texas and the high line around this track is where the winner will run. (Yahoo A Driver)
Tony Stewart – Can someone please explain to him why he hasn’t won a race this year. After Saturday night he might not be asking that question any longer because he’s been the best intermediate track driver this year and he’s a previous winner at Texas. (Yahoo A Driver)
Jimmie Johnson – In the last three spring Texas races Jimmie Johnson has finished second. That sounds good to me. Johnson has a good average finish (10.1) and a good average starting position (9.3). (Yahoo A Driver)
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A- = Really Good Pick
Matt Kenseth – If you’re in an allocation league this is a good week to pick Kenseth. Since 2005 Kenseth has nine top tens at Texas. Last fall he finished second Denny Hamlin. He had this race won but he screwed up once he got into the lead. (Yahoo A Driver)
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin swept TMS in 2010 and the last time he didn’t win he finished second. His engine problems shouldn’t be overlooked though. Gibbs claims to have found the problem but I’ll believe it when I see it. (Yahoo A Driver)
Greg Biffle – Biffle has a poor average finish at Texas but fear not. Greg has five straight top tens at TMS. Last fall he led 224 laps but had restarting problems which ultimately did him in. His driver rating in the fall race was 142.5. (Yahoo A Driver)
Ryan Newman – Newman’s been a surprising driver on intermediates this season. How’s he been doing that? He consistently takes gambles that worked out for him. In 2003 when he won at Texas do you remember how he won? I do, he took two tires, passed Dale Earnhardt Jr. who had four and drove into victory lane. (Yahoo B Driver)
Juan Pablo Montoya – Don’t be one of those fantasy racers who just look average finishes and make your decisions. Montoya’s 25.1 average finish is nothing to cheer about but his recent intermediate track performances are. Montoya finished third at Las Vegas and tenth at Auto Club Speedway after he won the pole. (Yahoo B Driver)
B+ = Good Pick
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Back in 2000 Dale Earnhardt Jr. got his first career win here. Up until the mid 2000’s this was Earnhardt Jr.’s best intermediate track. Since 2007 Junior only has one top ten at Texas which was in last springs race. So far on intermediate tracks in 2011 Earnhardt has finished 12th at Auto Club and 8th at Las Vegas. (Yahoo B Driver)
Clint Bowyer – In the last two fall Texas races Bowyer finished 7th. In the last two spring races he finished 36th and 22nd. At Auto Club Speedway Bowyer finished 7th. (Yahoo B Driver)
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Jeff Gordon – Gordon has been so unimpressive to me on intermediate tracks this year there’s no way anybody could responsibly recommend him. So far he’s shown himself to be a mid teens driver at best on this style of track. Before Gordon won at Phoenix his next most recent win is at Texas. (Yahoo A Driver)
Mark Martin – This team is lacking something on intermediate tracks right now. On this style of track I would say he’s been about a 15th place team so far. At Texas Martin has four straight top six finishes. (Yahoo B Driver)
Kasey Kahne – Kahne’s a high risk pick but he’s capable of getting a good finish. He finished 5th last spring but he hasn’t led any laps since 2006. Kahne won the spring 2006 Texas race. (Yahoo B Driver)
Kurt Busch – After his out to lunch Auto Club showing it’s hard to be high on Kurt Busch. He’s a former winner with a 13.8 average finish. (Yahoo A Driver)
Jamie McMurray – McMurray has had success at Texas in the past, but not in the last four races. McMurray has eight top fifteen finishes at Texas in fourteen races. When you take away his last four races he’s finished in the top fifteen 80% of the time. Last fall McMurray won the night race at Charlotte (similar track). (Yahoo B Driver)
Paul Menard – Last fall Menard finished tenth at Texas. The bulk of his previous success thus far in his career have been on intermediate tracks. I would say pencil him in for around 15th. (Yahoo C Driver)
AJ Allmendinger – AJ has finished between 10th and 14th in the last three races at Texas. On intermediates in 2011 AJ has finished 14th (Auto Club) and 19th (Las Vegas). (Yahoo B Driver)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Martin Truex Jr. – Do you like taking risks? Anytime someone picks Truex their taking a risk. At Texas Truex has some good finishes and some bad ones. In eleven races Truex has five top tens and eight top fifteens. At Las Vegas Truex finished sixth. (Yahoo B Driver)
David Reutimann – The one word needed to describe Reutimann at Texas is “Mediocre”. I would expect a mid teens finish out of him. Reutimann finished 13th at Las Vegas. (Yahoo B Driver)
Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose has had some success at TMS. In the last three races he’s finished in the teens. In the fall 2009 race he was a top five driver but uncompetitive pit stops and bad fuel mileage hurt him. Here’s his Yahoo! race chart from that race. At Las Vegas Ambrose finished fourth. (Yahoo B Driver)
C+ = Proceed With Caution
Brian Vickers – Did you know Vickers has never finished in the top ten at Texas!!! I found that pretty amazing considering intermediate tracks are his strength. If you play in an allocation based league like Yahoo! I wouldn’t overlook him this week because in the two intermediate track races this year Vickers is 2 for 2 when it comes to finishing in the top ten. (Yahoo B Driver)
David Ragan – Pencil him and Bayne in for your Yahoo C list picks this week. Last fall Ragan finished 8th at Texas. This track is very friendly to Roush Fords. Last fall Bayne finished 17th. (Yahoo C Driver)
Joey Logano – Out of all the Gibbs cars I think Logano is the most susceptible to problems on the track this year. Even if his engine doesn’t blow up it could be a long day for him. At the two intermediate races so far this year Logano finished 23rd and 25th. Last fall he finished 4th. (Yahoo B Driver)
C = I’m Not Picking Them
Jeff Burton – Jeff Burton was good at Martinsville and Auto Club Speedway but the bad luck bug bite him again. In the 2010 Texas spring race he was strong but had a cut tire late in the race (Check out his Yahoo race chart). In the fall race he taught Jeff Gordon a lesson. Remember the cat fight? I would urge you to avoid him until something good happens. (Yahoo B Driver)
Brad Keselowski – No way, no how. Not gonna pick him. His Texas average finish is 24.8. His average finish on intermediate tracks in 2011 is 24.5. His amount of success on intermediate tracks at Penske is a word that rhymes with “hero”. (Yahoo B Driver)