Scouting Report: Texas Samsung Mobile 500

[tweetmeme source= "ifantasyrace"]How should you go about picking a driver for Texas? Check out my chart to the left.

1) First and foremost you should pick a driver based on recent intermediate track performances. We’ve seen two of them this year. California and Las Vegas aren’t exactly shaped like Texas but let’s not complicate things for no good reason.

2) Recent races at Texas are important for obvious reasons. I would recommend you don’t venture to far back into the past. Fantasy racing isn’t for historians, it’s a what have you done for me lately sport.

3) Practice is extremely important at Texas. However it might not be that important in the grand scheme of things this race because fantasy racers are in the dark this week. This isn’t your typical race weekend. The first and only televised practice session will be Thursday night.

4) Another good word for recent performances is momentum. Momentum exists, don’t embarrass yourself and say it doesn’t. However, if you would like to say it doesn’t tweet me your answer as to why it doesn’t. It could be the weekly tweet to the editor.

5) In racing it doesn’t matter where you start, it matters where you finish. I had a fantasy team in the past that started 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and do you know what happened? They crashed.  That’s we they run the races. Out front doesn’t equal out of trouble.

Ten Drivers To Watch

1. Carl Edwards – Only three-time winner at Texas and won at the other 1.5 mile track visited this year. Safest pick by far this week.

2. Kyle Busch – Finished third in this race last year, strong last fall but killed his own chances. Kyle was very competitive at California and Las Vegas.

3.  Kevin Harvick – Back to back winner and his driving style is very successful at this track. Three straight top tens at Texas.

4. Tony Stewart – Best intermediate track driver who hasn’t won a race this year. Finished second at Las Vegas but faded late in the Auto Club 400.

5. Jimmie Johnson – Three straight second place finishes in the spring Texas race. Look for him to visit victory lane soon.

6. Matt Kenseth – Since 2005 Kenseth has nine top tens at Texas. Last fall he finished second Denny Hamlin but he cost himself the race.

7. Denny Hamlin – Having swept the races at Texas last year Hamlin enters this race as a high risk pick because of his engine problems.

8. Greg Biffle – Led 224 laps last fall and had  a 142.5 driver rating. Previous winner of this event.

9. Ryan Newman -Newman’s been a surprising driver on intermediates this season. How’s he been doing that? He consistently takes gambles that worked out for him. In 2003 when he won at Texas do you remember how he won? I do, he took two tires, passed Dale Earnhardt Jr. who had four and drove into victory lane.

10. Juan Pablo Montoya – Finished third and tenth in the two intermediate track races this year. Don’t overlook Montoya because just like Harvick he’s a master of the high line.

TheSpread.com Odds to win….

Denny Hamlin 6/1, Jimmie Johnson 6/1, Carl Edwards 6/1, Kevin Harvick 9/1, Tony Stewart 9/1, Jeff Gordon 10/1, Matt Kenseth 16/1, Greg Biffle 16/1, Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1, Mark Martin 20/1, Kurt Busch 20/1