Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Charlotte – Coca Cola 600 (Post Qualifying, Post Happy Hour)

A Repeat Of Last Weekend Is Likely

With two practice sessions being held this afternoon between qualifying and the race, it should be a little easier to forecast who will be the best picks for the Coca Cola 600. In case you haven’t checked out my practice breakdown for tomorrow’s race, just click here. Brad Keselowski surprisingly–to me anyway–won the pole for the big race on Thursday, and the entire starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

Jamie McMurray and Kurt Busch were the lucky two drivers to visit victory lane at Charlotte Motor Speedway in 2010. Results of last year’s Coca Cola 600 and the fall race here can be found by clicking here and here, respectively. The fall race results also show how each driver did in practice (in terms of average speed). Jamie McMurray, Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, and Matt Kenseth were the only drivers that scored top 10 finishes in both Charlotte races during the 2010 season. Click here for the results of last weekend’s All-Star Race.

Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Coca Cola 600:

1. Carl Edwards – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 11.3 (three wins)
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Once again, Carl Edwards was the class of the field in practice (in terms of average speed) and he starts near the front for the big race. This team has been so strong this year that it’s hard to go against them any week, and with their recent All-Star Race win, I see Carl as nothing but the favorite going into Sunday night. He hasn’t had a top ten in a points-paying race at Charlotte in the last three races, but I expect that to change Sunday night. Look for the #99 Ford to lead early and often during the 600 miles tomorrow night.

2. Kyle Busch – Starts 21st – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.0 (two wins)
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Let’s just hope that the Gibbs engines can sustain the full 600 miles on Sunday night because Kyle Busch has a great car. He starts about mid-pack, but there’s no one else I would rather have to come up the field than “Rowdy”. He was the fastest car in Happy Hour in both average speed and ten-lap average and Busch is riding seven-race streak of top 10s at this track. The only thing that will stop him from making that an eight-race streak tomorrow night would be an engine failure, which is why I have him on Medium Risk this weekend.

3. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 6th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.6 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
It’s actually been a pretty quiet weekend for Jimmie and the #48 crew (I haven’t heard much about him anyway). He qualified in the third row and looked pretty good in practice, coming in at 11th on the average speed chart. Johnson was dominant at Charlotte early and midway-through his career, and hasn’t slipped much at this track with two top 5 finishes in the last three races. His career average finish at Charlotte is 9.1, and I actually expect Jimmie to improve that after this weekend.

4. Greg Biffle – Starts 15th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.7 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I really like the Roush Fords this week, just like I did for the All-Star Race. I would have liked to see “The Biff” qualify a little better, but we all know the saying: “It’s not where you start, it’s where you finish.” He ended up 6th in average speed on Saturday and finished 5th in the fall race at Charlotte last season. He’s had great cars at these 1.5-mile tracks this year, but some dumb luck has kept him from getting the finishes he deserves. As long as nothing crazy happens to the #16 team on Sunday night, expect a top five run for Biffle.

5. Tony Stewart – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 19.4
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Whenever you see Smoke’s name near or inside the top ten on the average speed chart, you know for a fact that the #14 team has found some great speed in the car. I said in my preview that summer is coming soon, and that’s right around when Stewart starts his hot streak every year. Will this week be the beginning of that streak? I believe so. Tony hasn’t notched a top ten at Charlotte since 2007, but I think that will change this weekend.

6. Matt Kenseth – Starts 19th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.7
**Change from my preview: -3 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Like I said before, don’t go against Roush this weekend. Kenseth has the best average finish of anyone on the circuit in the last two years at Charlotte, and he has finished outside of the top 20 just six times in his twenty-three career starts at the track. He visited victory lane here in 2000 and has just one finish outside of the top ten in the past six points-paying races at Charlotte. He was 10th on the average speed chart, which is a little surprising for the #17 team.

7. Kasey Kahne – Starts 17th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.9
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kahne definitely has the car to get a solid top ten finish, but the Red Bull Racing organization is so inconsistent that it is hard to call it a certainty. Kasey was fast in practice–as he usually is–but starts 17th, which is actually about seven spots lower than his average start at Charlotte in his career. He finished 12th and 38th here last season, but before that Kahne was on a five-race streak of top 10s at this track, so he definitely knows how to get around this place–let’s just hope that the car can handle the full 600 miles.

8. Denny Hamlin – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.3
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Like I said with his teammate, Kyle Busch, just hope that the Gibbs engines can last the entire distance on Sunday night. Hamlin, like Johnson, has flown under the radar this weekend (in my eyes anyway). He qualified on the second row and ended up 15th on the average speed chart (7th in Happy Hour). He’s had good runs over the past two years at Charlotte, but the engine problem in 2009’s fall race has really hurt Hamlin’s average finish in that time. I don’t think he will finish anywhere near where he starts, but a top ten isn’t out of the question for Hamlin tomorrow night.

9. Mark Martin – Starts 13th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.3 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I will probably regret this after the race, but I think Martin will grab a top ten on Sunday night. He had a fast car in practice, coming up 9th on the average speed chart, and he starts 13th. He hasn’t finished worse than 17th at Charlotte since 2006, so don’t expect a terrible race out of Martin, but remember this: he has looked like a good pick before the race this entire season, only to disappoint fantasy owners when the checkered flag waved. Be cautious if you take Mark “The Kid” Martin tomorrow.

10. Jeff Burton – Starts 5th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.7
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Okay, I’ll say it: Jeff Burton will get his first top ten of the season on Sunday night in the Coca Cola 600. This car has been fast since it came off the truck and like his teammate, Paul Menard, it has been at the top of the speed charts all weekend. Don’t let the 26th-overall ranking in average speed shy away from Burton: he never shows up very high on the average speed chart. He was 8th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour, though, and I like to see that on these tracks.

11. Clint Bowyer – Starts 10th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 11.7
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Clint didn’t practice very much in the first session on Saturday because his car was terrible, but it looks like they found some speed in Happy Hour: he was 3rd in ten-lap average during that session. Bowyer has two top 10s in the past three races at Charlotte and they are using the same car from Texas in April where Clint finished 2nd.

12. David Reutimann – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.7
**Change from my preview: +3 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Some may call Reutimann’s win at Charlotte a fluke, but the way I look at it is that you have to put yourself in the situation to be leading the race when the rain starts to fall. David’s average career finish at this track is 13.5 and he hasn’t finished worse than 15th here since his 2009 Coca Cola 600 win. He finished 5th and 9th last season at Charlotte and looked strong in the All-Star Race as well. His average speeds weren’t dominant, though, and that’s the reason I am ranking him 12th. He should still be a very good pick tomorrow night, though, and I like his starting spot of 7th.

13. Joey Logano – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 20.2
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
His teammates are both wicked fast, so you would think that they would share some secrets with “Sliced Bread” on Sunday night, right? Logano didn’t blow anyone out of the water in practice on Saturday, but he has made four career points-paying race starts at this track and has a worst finish of 13th. It’s hard for me to go against that, especially with as much speed as hit teammates have found. If his engine lasts all race, expect Logano to fight for a top 15 by the end of the Coca Cola 600.

14. Jamie McMurray – Starts 35th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.9
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
This is an extremely risky pick simply because Jamie Mac has done nothing all season. He was 13th in average speed, though, and had the 10th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He finished 2nd and 1st in the two Charlotte races last season after starting 27th in both, so he knows how to work around traffic here. Will McMurray do as well here as he did last season? I doubt it, but a top 10 could really turn this team around, and I can guarantee they will be willing to gamble to get one.

15. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 14th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.1
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Truex has two top 10s in a row, and if everything goes right on Sunday night, he could make it three. I’m being conservative, though, and ranking him 15th. He was 12th on the average speed chart, which is actually a little low for the #56 Toyota usually, and he finished 23rd and 15th here last season. Truex’s career average finish at this track is 14.8, though, and I think that’s right around where he will finish tomorrow night.

Just Outside The Top Fifteen For The Coca Cola 600:

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – If this kid can stay out of trouble on Sunday, look for a surprise top 15 out of him. He qualified 9th on Thursday and looked very sporty in practice. This is only his first Cup Series start, but it’s looking to be a great weekend for the kid who just got his first win in the Nationwide Series.

Paul Menard – This #27 Chevrolet is fast. Menard was at the top of the speed charts all day Saturday and ended up 2nd in the average speed chart. He starts 16th and he should move up early, but fantasy owners are hoping his stitches won’t cause a problem for him. Paul said it wasn’t that big of a deal, and I believe him. He finished 8th in the Coca Cola 600 last year.

A.J. Allmendinger – After not getting the finish he deserved in Dover, I expect The Dinger to rebound this week in Charlotte. He doesn’t have as fast as a car, but he qualified the #43 Ford on the front row and was fifth in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Allmendinger’s career-best finish at this track (14th) came in last season’s Coca Cola 600.

Stay Away From These Drivers For The Coca Cola 600:

Jeff Gordon – It just doesn’t look like this car has any speed at all. He starts 11th but I think Gordon will quickly fall into right around 25th and stay there for the rest of the night. The #24 team isn’t hitting on all cylinders and I wouldn’t pick them until they start showing some power on a consistent basis.

Juan Montoya – Neither of the Earnhardt-Ganassi drivers gave a very good qualifying effort on Thursday, and Montoya seemed to still be struggling during the two practice sessions on Saturday. He was 21st on the average speed chart and with all of the traffic he has to go through on Sunday night, I think there are better weeks to take a chance on Juan.

Kurt Busch – I thought this might be the week that this team turned things around, but I don’t think so any more. The elder Busch brother starts 26th and ended up 22nd on the average speed chart. I think a top 15 would be like a win for this team on Saturday night.

My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:

OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Carl Edwards,  Darkhorse – Paul Menard
Yahoo!: A-List: Carl Edwards, B-List: David Reutimann & Brian Vickers, C-List: David Ragan
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, Regan Smith, Brian Vickers
Racing4Glory.com “The Showdown”: Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, David Reutimann, Joey Logano