Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Loudon – Lenox Industrial Tools 301 (Post Qualifying, Post Happy Hour)
Stewart Looking For First Top Ten Since Mid-June
As I said in my Preview on Wednesday, I will be focused heavily on average practice speeds this week as well as the Pocono and Phoenix races from earlier this season. Some other fantasy writers may compare Loudon to Martinsville, but I don’t see the resemblance so I am just going to disregard that race. Goodyear brought the same tire this week as they did at Richmond earlier this year, so I may go back on that race as well. In case you missed my Practice Breakdown, just click here to check it out. Also, don’t forget to check out Ryan’s Scouting Report for New Hampshire as well. He gives you the best advice on how to make an informed pick each week. Click here to see how important average speeds were during the last race at this track. There is no race next week but the series returns for the race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway during the last weekend in July.
How good are you at predicting the results of each race? I’m holding a FREE fantasy NASCAR game for anyone interested, and someone is guaranteed to win money. All you have to do is guess the top six finishers of each race, and they don’t even have to be in order! If you would like to try your luck, just click right here for more information. Good luck!
Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:
1. Jeff Gordon – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.6 (three wins)
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Gordon has won all of the flat track races thus far in the 2011 season, so why not make it three-for-three? He finished 4th and 6th here last season after starting 16th and 17th, respectively, so Gordon will have even less cars to pass on Sunday to make his way to the front. The #24 Chevrolet was bested only by Kevin Harvick’s Chevy in terms of average speed, and Gordon wound up 4th on the ten-lap average chart during Happy Hour. Only three other drivers have scored more points that Jeff Gordon has over the last five Sprint Cup Series races and he hasn’t finished outside of the top 15 at New Hampshire since early 2005. A win this weekend will virtually guarantee Gordon a Chase birth.
2. Kurt Busch – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 11.4 (three wins)
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
You have to believe the elder Busch brother will be challenging for the win this weekend. He has a super fast Dodge once again (5th in average speed, ranked in the top ten in both sessions in terms of ten-lap average), starts in the second row, and has the best average finish at this track over the past two years of anyone in the series. Kurt’s last three starts in the summer at New Hampshire Motor Speedway have given him one win and two 3rd-place results, and as long as the bad luck bug doesn’t bite the “Double Deuce”, you have to believe he will finish around there on Sunday. Busch started on the pole and finished 2nd at Pocono last month.
3. Tony Stewart – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.4 (two wins)
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
There’s usually no risk by putting Stewart on your roster for the summer Loudon race, but with the way this team’s luck has been going recently, I know I am starting to have doubts. However, “Smoke” starts 2nd and and was 2nd in ten-lap average during the first practice session on Saturday. If you look at my Practice Breakdown and see that Stewart is pretty far down on the average speed chart, don’t worry: he usually doesn’t show his hand in practice, and his time goes down when he runs so many laps. The #14 Chevrolet finished 7th at Phoenix earlier this season and you have to believe that this team is going to turn things around sooner or later. Tony’s last two summer starts at this track have given him finishes of 5th and 2nd, and he almost won at this track last fall but came up just short in the fuel mileage department.
4. Clint Bowyer – Starts 12th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.1 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Another driver that is in a bit of a slump is Clint Bowyer, with two finishes of 35th or worse in a row. However, New Hampshire has been kind to him in the past, and he seems to have a pretty good car this weekend. It seemed like this team struggled a bit in Happy Hour (they might have been experimenting on setups), but this Chevrolet was wicked fast in the first session and has the best ten-lap average in the field. Clint is the most recent race winner at Loudon and is on a streak of three-straight top 10 finishes at this one-mile track. I don’t envision the #33 in victory lane on Sunday, but a top five isn’t out of the question.
5. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 28th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.3
**Change from my preview: -4 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Johnson should probably be ranked higher than Bowyer, but I gave Clint the edge due to his starting position. “Five Time” is going to have to fight his way through traffic on Sunday–no, not the Kentucky type–but I still think he will be up there in the end, challenging for the win (hint, hint: pick Johnson if you play Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com). Only Denny Hamlin has a better average finish than Johnson at this track and JJ has visited victory lane three times here in his eighteen starts. “The Champ” was 6th on the average speed chart and had the best ten-lap average during Happy Hour, which is something I like to see. He also had the 8th-best ten-lap average during the first practice session on Saturday. Johnson won this race last season and before his 25th-place finish last fall he had a streak of seven-straight top 10s at this track. He finished 3rd at Phoenix and 4th at Pocono earlier this year and this is the same chassis that Jimmie finished 8th with at Richmond in May.
6. Kevin Harvick – Starts 18th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.0
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
“Happy” Harvick has a lot to be smiling about: the #29 Chevolet ranked 1st on the average speed chart and his spotter tweeted, “Cup car is bad ass“. Those two facts are enough to normally have someone ranked in the top five for me, but Harvick starts 18th and was only 17th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He finished 5th in both Loudon races last year, but before that you have to go back to 2007 to find a finish better than 10th for Kevin. He ran in the Nationwide race, though, which might give him an advantage, and he got top 5s in both flat track races earlier this year. The entire RCR stable looks great this weekend, and I could see them all posting at least top 10 finishes on Sunday.
7. Ryan Newman – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.9
**Change from my preview: +3 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
After Newman’s surprising top five finish last week in Kentucky, you have to believe he’s going to have his head held high Sunday morning. “The Rocketman” starts on the pole and ended up 9th on the average speed chart. Newman also had the 10th-best ten-lap average in both practice sessions. He has had the fourth-best average finish of anyone in the Series at flat tracks over the past two years and Ryan finished 5th at Phoenix in February. With three straight top 10s at New Hampshire, you have to believe that Newman will continue that streak this weekend in the Lenox Industrial Tools 301.
8. Denny Hamlin – Starts 14th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.1
**Change from my preview: -2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
No one has a better average finish at Loudon than Denny Hamlin, and this guy has never finished worse than 15th in his ten career starts at this track. He’s won only once here, but Hamlin has runner-up finishes in the last two fall races at “The Magic Mile,” and it looks like the #11 Toyota could challenge again this weekend: Hamlin was 12th on the average speed chart and had the 5th-best ten-lap average during the first practice session held on Saturday. However, this season Hamlin is struggling a bit on tracks he should be awesome at, which makes him a bit of a risk this weekend. I don’t think Denny will win on Sunday, but a top ten wouldn’t surprise me one bit.
9. Juan Montoya – Starts 8th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.8 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +6 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
As I said in my Preview, Montoya has ran well at New Hampshire lately but he hasn’t gotten the finishes he deserved. He’s started in the top five in each of the last three races at “The Magic Mile,” but JPM has just one top ten finish to show for it. This is the same chassis that Montoya ran in Martinsville when he finished 4th, and while he didn’t blow anyone away in practice (19th in average speed), he starts near the front and had the 5th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. As usual, it’s pretty risky to pick Montoya, but he’s ran well as of late (Sonoma, Kentucky) just to have some bad luck. You have to believe JPM will get the finish he deserves eventually.
10. Brad Keselowski – Starts 5th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.5
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I preach it every week: don’t go against a team when they are hot, and the “Blue Deuce” and “Double Deuce” teams for Penske Racing are on fire. They have been fast week in and week out, and Keselowski would have added a second win last weekend in Kentucky if there wasn’t so many cautions at the end. BK ended up 16th in average speed for the Saturday practice sessions and and ended up 12th and 7th in terms of ten-lap average in second practice and Happy Hour, respectively. Keselowski finished 6th in his first start at “The Magic Mile” in 2009 and started from the pole and led two laps before coming home 18th in the last race here. He’s driving the same car that he finished 3rd with at Darlington in May.
11. Kyle Busch – Starts 19th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.5
**Change from my preview: -8 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
This may be too low of a ranking for ‘ol “Rowdy Busch,” but here’s an interesting fact: in every New Hampshire start where Kyle has started outside of the top fifteen (five times total), he has yet to post a top 10 finish. Add in the fact that the #18 Toyota wound up 26th on the average speed chart and 11th in ten-lap average during the first practice session and I just don’t see Busch changing that fact. He finished 2nd and 3rd at Phoenix and Pocono, respectively, though, so I could be completely wrong. Busch has finished 11th or better in each of the last four Loudon races.
12. Joey Logano – Starts 16th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.5
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Fantasy owners are still pissed off at Logano for being so disappointing earlier this season, but you have to look past that. “Sliced Bread” has received 169 points over the last five races–more than Jimmie Johnson–and only five other drivers have scored more in that span. He won this race in 2009 (yes, I know it was rain-shortened, put down your pitchforks) and finished a respectable 9th in last year’s spring race after starting 11th. Logano was 11th on the average speed chart and ranked 6th and 3rd in the two Saturday practice sessions in terms of ten-lap average. Also, he finished 11th at Pocono last month and came home 11th at Richmond as well, where they used the same tire they are this weekend.
13. Kasey Kahne – Starts 10th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 17.0
**Change from my preview: +6 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kasey Kahne doesn’t look like a good pick when you look at his average finish here recently, but to be a good fantasy racer you have to be able to look beyond the finishes. Kasey finished 14th here last fall and led 110 laps in the spring race before an engine problem delegated him to a 36th-place result. Kahne also engine difficulties in the fall race during the 2009 season, but before that he finished 10th and 11th here. The #4 Toyota was 7th on the average speed chart and finished 6th and 12th at Phoenix and Pocono, respectively. Kahne didn’t run for ten consecutive laps in either practice on Saturday, though, which worries me.
14. Jeff Burton – Starts 6th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.3
**Change from my preview: +3 spots. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
I think Richard Childress put the hammer down and said the #31 better be in the top ten this weekend or everyone is fired, because this Chevrolet is stupid fast. Burton rolls off the grid in the third row, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him leading within the first fifteen or twenty laps. However, will this team be able to put together a complete race? They haven’t thus far through the 2011 season. Burton ended up 3rd on the average speed chart and was in the top five in both practices (in terms of ten-lap average). This Chevrolet is capable of winning, but it’s too risky for me to rank them higher than this, because with the way this season has been going for this team, something is bound to go wrong on Sunday. Burton finished 12th and 15th at this track last season.
15. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 13th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.2 (one win)
**Change from my preview: was on avoid list. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Truex hasn’t finished better than 19th at “The Magic Mile” in his last four attempts, but before his little slump that he is in started, Martin recorded four straight top 10s at this track and three of those were top 5s. The #56 Toyota wound up 4th on the average speed chart–which is normal for this team–and was 6th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. It’s a very risky pick, but at the flat tracks this season, Truex, Jr. has finished 14th and 10th. He’s bound to back up his average speed one of these weeks, right?
Just Outside The Top Fifteen For The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:
16. Paul Menard – Everyone is leaning heavily on avoiding Menard this weekend, but I see potential here. He starts 9th, but I don’t expect him to challenge for a top ten. However, Paul had the 13th-fastest average speed during the two practice sessions and finished 17th and 14th at Phoenix and Pocono, respectively. It’s a very risky pick–seeing as Menard has never finished better than 21st at this track–but he’s been breaking personal records this seasons at tracks where he has never found success at before.
17. David Reutimann – I want to see Reutty have another good run, I really do, but I just didn’t see anything in his practice speeds that would let me rank him anywhere near his qualifying spot. The #00 Toyota will take the green flag in 3rd place, but how long will the race go until he’s back around 20th? David was 28th on the average speed chart and didn’t make any consecutive ten-lap runs in either practice, which worries me. He also couldn’t crack the top 20 in either of the practice sessions (in terms of one fast lap). Either their car is near perfect or this team is way off on their race setup. I’m leaning toward the latter.
18. A.J. Allmendinger – The Dinger is still my sleeper of the week but I can’t find any reason to rank him as high as I had him in my preview. A.J. will roll off the grid in 17th, and I think he will stay there for most of the race, occasionally flirting with the top ten at times. This #43 Ford was 14th fastest on the average speed chart and this is the same car that Allmendinger finished 7th with at Richmond. If you need a sleeper pick that many people will probably overlook, I’d still go with A.J.
19. Regan Smith – Regan finished 19th here last fall and I think he has the potential to repeat that again this weekend. He starts 11th and wound up 18th on the average speed chart for Saturday (and 14th in ten-lap average during the first practice session). Regan ended up 15th at Pocono last month and was involved in the “Big One” at Phoenix in February after starting 5th. At Richmond the #78 Chevrolet came home 17th.
20. Mark Martin – Mark “The Kid” Martin has posted top 20 finishes at both of the flat track races this season–13th at Phoenix and 18th at Pocono–and I think he make it three-for-three after Sunday. The #5 Chevrolet ended up 17th on the average speed chart and Martin had the 8th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. He won the fall race here in 2009.
Stay Away From These Drivers For The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:
Matt Kenseth – He starts in 30th and ranked 29th on the average speed chart, but that’s not the only reason I would stay away from the #17 Ford this weekend: Kenseth hasn’t finished better than 17th in the past six races at Loudon. He’s surprised me before this season, but I just don’t see Matt being very competitive on Sunday.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Look for the downward spiral to continue, Junior Nation. The fan favorite starts alongside his partner (Jimmie Johnson) but unlike the five-time defending champ, Dale Junior has found absolutely no speed this weekend in his #88 Chevrolet. He ranked 23rd on the average speed chart and I think it’s going to be hard for Junior to grab even a top 20 come Sunday.
Brian Vickers – Vickers has one top ten (a 5th in 2006) to his credit at “The Magic Mile,” but other than that his stats are pathetic. He finished 11th here in September 2009 (the last time Vickers was at this track), but before that he had three finishes of 35th or worse in his last four starts. With a career average finish of 22nd and a starting spot of 21st, I see no reason why Brian Vickers should be on anyone’s roster this weekend.
Greg Biffle – The entire Roush-Fenway stable seems to be struggling this weekend, and I would rank Biffle 4th out of those four cars. He starts 20th, but I think it will be hard for him to maintain that position, and we wound up 21st on the board. The Biff has a new crew chief this weekend, but until I see some competitiveness out of this team, you won’t find the #16 on my roster. Greg hasn’t finished in the top ten since Kansas in early June and has just one top ten in his last four visits to this track, not to mention he finished 20th at Phoenix and ended up 27th at Pocono.
Jamie McMurray – Just for you, John/Jessica/whatever other alias you go by. 😉
My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:
OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Jeff Gordon, Darkhorse – Brad Keselowski
Yahoo!: A-List: Jeff Gordon, B-List: Juan Montoya & Ryan Newman, C-List: Regan Smith
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Andy Lally
Racing4Glory.com “The Showdown”: Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Juan Montoya, Paul Menard, Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman
