Indianapolis Brickyard 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

A= Really, Really Good Pick

Jeff Gordon – Gordon has four wins in the Indianapolis Brickyard 400 including the inaugural race in 1994. Out of the races we’ve seen this year Pocono is the most similar to Indy and of course Jeff Gordon won that race. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kevin Harvick – Harvick won at Indy in 2003. Last year Harvick finished second to surprise winner Jamie McMurray. In ten races at this 100 year old track he’s only finished 11th or worse twice. It’s also notable that Harvick has three straight top five finishes at Pocono (similar track). (Yahoo A Driver)

Tony Stewart – Stewart won at Indy in 2007. In his last two performances at this historic track he’s finished 5th and 3rd. Loop data wise his average running position in the last two races here is ninth. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has won three out of the last five races at Indianapolis Motorspeedway. Before you sign the dotted line and pick Johnson it’s important to note his hero or zero pendulum performances in the Brickyard 400. Beyond his three wins he only has one other top ten and five finishes of 18th or worse. (Yahoo A Driver)

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A- = Really Good Pick

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is a big name sleeper who I think will be a contender at Indy. He’s come very close to winning on multiple occasions. When you look at his stats going back to 2002 (omitting 2008, flat tire) his worst finish is 16th, and his average finish is 7.5. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kyle Busch – Busch has had a fair amount of success at Indy in the Brickyard 400. He’s raced here six times and has four top tens for show for it. At Pocono just over a month ago he finished third. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kasey Kahne – Kahne’s very good at Indy but two bad race results weigh him down statistically. In seven races Kahne has four top seven finishes. Red Bull cars should also be stronger then expected this week. (Yahoo B Driver)

Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya’s been close to winning but mistakes and miscommunication have hurt him. At Indy Jim Pohlman will be debuting as his new crew chief so all bets are off the communication problems have been solved. Performance wise he should be as good as anybody. In the last two years he’s led 202 laps, had a mid race average running position of second, and  has the best driver rating (125.6). (Yahoo B Driver)

Carl Edwards – Points leader Carl Edwards has top ten finishes at Indy every other year but the catch is that if this trend continues then this is his non top ten year. When he doesn’t get a top ten though his finishes are still respectable (12th, 15th, and 18th), (Yahoo A Driver)

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B+ = Good Pick

Kurt Busch – Busch was very strong at Pocono but Indy has been a different beast for him. On his best days at Indy he’s a 10th place car. That’s good, but I would prefer to aim a little higher. You can’t discount his momentum though because in the last ten races he’s accumulated more points then anyone. Busch hasn’t led any laps here since 2003. (Yahoo A Driver)

Joey Logano – Logano’s only raced at Indy twice but I like his 9th and 12th place finishes. At Pocono just about a month ago he finished 11th. Look for another good showing out of Logano in the 2011 Brickyard 400. (Yahoo B Driver)

Ryan Newman – The New Hampshire winner has always struggled at his home track. Only once in a decade of racing at Indy has Newman cracked the top ten. In fantasy NASCAR that’s a huge problem. The plus side of Newman is that in four out of the last five years he’s finished in the teens. (Yahoo B Driver)

Paul Menard – Last season Paul Menard had his best finish ever at Indy (14th). In his last three big flat track (Indy and Pocono) appearances he’s come away with finishes of 13th, 14th and 14th. I would say it’s pretty safe to expect him to finish somewhere in that range again. (Yahoo C Driver)

B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin should be better here but his numbers are disappointing. His best finish at Indy is 3rd, but that was in 2008 and the results from that race don’t have any fantasy value because of the tire fiasco that took place that year. His average finish in all of his other Indy races is 20.25. (Yahoo A Driver)

AJ Allmendinger – This week AJ will have a new crew chief on his pit box. Greg Irwin from the 16 team will be calling the shots for him and in return I think this will bring the RPM cars more in line with Roush Fenway cars. In his three starts at Indy all of his finishes have been between 10th and 20th. Momentum wise this team is doing pretty good at the moment. In four out of the last five races he’s finished in the top 13. (Yahoo B Driver)

Mark Martin – In the last six Indy races Martin’s finished 11th or better every race. In 2009 he finished second to Jimmie Johnson. At Pocono Martin finished 18th. His career average finish is 13th and his average starting position is 12th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Greg Biffle – In the last three years Biffle has finished better every year. In 2008 he finished 8th, in 2009 he finished 4th, and last season he finished 3rd. The downside about Biffle is that in the last six races (this year) his average finish is 20.3. (Yahoo A Driver)

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer finished 4th last year but he’s been missing in action in recent weeks. I would be tentative about picking Bowyer this week. His other finishes at Indy are 18th, 19th, 13th and 4th. (Yahoo B Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

David Ragan – Ragan’s Indy average finish is 19th so that certainly fits into the “pencil them in for around 20th” grouping. In the last two years he’s finished 20th and 24th. At Pocono this year he finished 17th. (Yahoo C Driver)

Jeff Burton – Burton has three top tens in the last four races at Indy. It’s hard not to like that but picking Burton is crazy in my opinion until he has a little bit of success first. Burton still doesn’t have a top ten finish this year. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brian Vickers – Vickers missed Indy last year but in 2009 he finished 5th. Vickers has one other top ten at Indy but all of his other finishes are 17th or worse. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brad Keselowski – Brad’s only raced once at Indy and he finished 17th. That’s not much fantasy data to go by so lets dig a little deeper. In his three starts at Pocono all of his finishes are between 20th and 23rd. Momentum wise there is hope in picking Brad. Before New Hampshire he had three straight top fifteen finishes. (Yahoo B Driver)

C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Not picking Junior at Indy is a no brainier. He’s really struggled on the track in recent weeks and when you combine that with a track where he’s no good on then you’re primed for a fantasy disaster. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has only finished higher than 27th once in the last four Indy races and that was in 2008 (tire fiasco year). (Yahoo B Driver)

Jamie McMurray – McMurray is the defending Indy winner and his win was far from being a fluke. Before his win he had prior success at the Brickyard. What will make it nearly impossible for someone to push the button and pick him this week is that since Darlington his best finish is 15th and his average finish is 26.8. (Yahoo B Driver)

C =I’m Not Picking Them

David Reutimann – In three out of his four races at Indy Reutimann has finished 28th or worse. In those exact years he also qualified 29th or worse every year. However in 2009 he started 5th and finished 8th. Beyond his second place finish at Kentucky things really haven’t been that good for him this year. At Pocono he did finish 13th so there is some hope here. (Yahoo B Driver)

Martin Treux jr. – Truex has zero top tens at Indy. His best finish is 12th and that’s his only top 15 finish. His average finish is 23rd and his average starting position is 21st. Loop data wise he’s as bad as advertised. At Pocono he finished 10th but he’s always been better there. (Yahoo B Driver)

Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose has been pretty consistent in the Indianapolis Brickyard 400. In the three races he’s been in he’s either finished 21st or 22nd. His success level at the other big flat track is even worse. In the last four races at Pocono he’s finished 30th or worse. (Yahoo B Driver)