Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Indianapolis – Brickyard 400 (Post Happy Hour, Post Qualifying)
Will The Chevrolet Stranglehold At Indianapolis Motor Speedway Finally End?
Bill Elliott in the 2002 Brickyard race was the last driver to kiss the bricks without having Chevrolet under under the hood. Will that domination come to an end on Sunday? When you look at the average speed chart (click here to read my Practice Breakdown), it seems likely, as only three Chevrolets cracked the top ten. David Ragan won the the pole for Sunday’s race, edging out Kasey Kahne. You can find the complete starting lineup by clicking here. Also, in case you missed my Fantasy Preview earlier this week, you can read it by clicking here.
Pick Six Fantasy NASCAR Game: How good are you at predicting the results of each race? I’m holding a FREE fantasy NASCAR game for anyone interested, and someone is guaranteed to win money. All you have to do is guess the top six finishers of each race, and they don’t even have to be in order! Click here to post your Pick Six picks for the Brickyard 400. Good luck!
Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Brickyard 400:
1. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.7 (three wins)
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
“The Champ” had me a little worried on Friday morning when he ended first practice in 32nd position, but even though he had to go out early in qualifying, he still laid down a wicked fast lap. The car looks real good in race trim, and the team (as well as the driver) likes it as well. They ranked 14th on the average speed chart and was 3rd in the second practice session before ending up 10th in Happy Hour. Johnson is a three-time winner at Indianapolis, but he is rather hit-or-miss when the series visits this track. He’s overdue for a win, though, and I think this team is going to be hitting on all cylinders Sunday and end up kissing the bricks.
2. Carl Edwards – Starts 10th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 11.3 (three wins)
**Change from my preview: +3 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I think Carl Edwards in his Ford has the best shot to stop the Chevrolet dominance at Indianapolis on Sunday. He starts 10th, which is a lot better than his career average qualifying effort here (27.3), and he was consistently fast in all of the practice sessions, which put Carl 3rd on the average speed chart. This car only ran 37 laps, though, which kind of worries me, but Edwards left practice early to work on his Nationwide car, and he has done this earlier this season when he was really happy with his racecar. Carl has three top 10s in the last five Brickyard races. Look for him to make it at least four of six after the checkered flag waves on Sunday, and he may add a victory to his resume as well.
3. Kevin Harvick – Starts 19th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.8 (two wins)
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Harvick seemed really happy with his car in race trim, and it was mentioned during practice that his crew chief predicted a win on Sunday (although I’m not 100% if they were kidding or not). “Happy” won here in 2003 from the pole and has the 3rd-best average finish of anyone in the series at Indianapolis. He has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts here, and that includes his 2nd-place effort last season. Harvick finished 5th at Pocono and June and I expect him to at least get a top five…if he isn’t challenging for the win.
4. Kasey Kahne – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.3 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kahne has been pretty good at the flat tracks this season (6th at Phoenix and Loudon and 12th at Pocono), but I think this is the weekend that this #4 team finally breaks through and gets a top five finish, which would be just their fourth of the year. Kahne had the best average speed of anyone that ran all three practices with the same engine and starts on the front row, which is very important here because it is so hard to pass. His history at this track is a little shaky, though, which will turn away some fantasy racers. Don’t worry, though: if you take out Kahne’s two terrible runs here in 2006 and 2007 (where he was involved in accidents), his average finish would be 6.6.
5. Juan Montoya – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.6
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
We all know that Montoya is going to run strong during the race on Sunday: he’s done it every time he has raced here. However, will the Columbian be able to finish the deal this time? Juan has led a whopping 202 laps at this track over the past two years (Greg Biffle is a very distant second with 38) but all he has to show for it is 11th and 32nd-place finishes. The #42 Chevrolet ended up 4th on the average speed chart, though, and Montoya laid down the 6th-fastest lap with it in Happy Hour, so you know he has some speed. Add in the fact that he finished 7th at Pocono and had a great run going at Loudon before he ran out of fuel, and I think Montoya is due for a good run–and finish–at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
6. Kurt Busch – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.4
**Change from my preview: +7 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kurt Busch would probably be the first to admit that Indianapolis isn’t his favorite track (average career finish of 18.1), but I think he’s going to turn around the recent slump he has found himself in at the Brickyard and come out with a solid top ten finish. I know he finished 10th here last year, but I think he will run better than that on Sunday and could possibly better his career best finish here, which was 5th back in 2001 (his rookie season). The Double Deuce was consistently fast in all practice sessions and ended up 9th on the average speed chart. Kurt also finished 2nd at Pocono and June and came home 10th in Loudon.
7. Matt Kenseth – Starts 9th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.9 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Kenseth isn’t the first driver you think of when the series comes to Indianapolis, but he’s finished in the top 12 in five of the last six Brickyard races and has two runner-up finishes to his credit here (in 2003 and 2006). The #17 Ford will roll off the grid 9th on Sunday, which is really good for this team at any week, but especially good at Indianapolis because until now, the highest Kenseth has started here was 10th (in 2008). Matt was 8th in Happy Hour and I think he has a great chance to finish right around there on Sunday.
8. Jeff Gordon – Starts 8th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.6
**Change from my preview: -6 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I’m not sure what’s wrong with the #24 Chevrolet, but it’s just not as impressive as I thought it would be (speed-wise). Gordon was just 25th-fastest on the average speed chart, and while he posted the 9th-fastest lap in first practice, Jeff ended up 26th in each of the next two sessions. He’s been strong on all of the flat tracks this season, though, and has eight top 10s in the last ten Brickyard races, so you can’t really go against him on Sunday, especially when he’s rolling off the grid in 8th.
9. Greg Biffle – Starts 18th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.9 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +6 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
When you look at the Biff’s performance at this track over the last couple years, you may wonder how in the world I could place him in the “High Risk” category this weekend. He hasn’t posted a finish better than 10th since May 7th, that’s why. Greg has a pretty new crew chief this weekend as well, and at Indianapolis you have to be able to communicate very well, so they may run into problems. However, like the rest of the Roush-Fenway camp, the #16 Ford seems to be fast (6th on the average speed chart and fastest laps in the second practice session as well as Happy Hour). Add in the fact that Biffle has three straight top 10s at Indianapolis and I think he will continue that streak, but I don’t see him challenging for the win, or even a top five.
10. Tony Stewart – Starts 24th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.8
**Change from my preview: -7 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I was expecting the Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet’s to go on a run after their dominating performance in Loudon, but I just don’t see any speed that I thought I would out of them this weekend. They both start mid-pack in the 12th row and neither blew me away in practice. Stewart was 7th on the average speed chart but didn’t end up better than 17th in any of the practice sessions, which worries me. However, “Smoke” is a two-time winner here and has just one finish outside of the top 12 in the last nine Brickyard races. I don’t think we’ll see another one-two finish, but the two Stewart-Haas cars could both get a solid top fifteen on Sunday.
11. Ryan Newman – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 17.8
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
See above under Tony Stewart for my thoughts on the Stewart-Haas cars this weekend. Newman ended up 18th on the average speed chart and 12th, 14th, and 19th in the practice sessions. Four of the “Rocketman”‘s last five starts at Indianapolis have ended in finishes between 13th and 17th, and I say that is very likely again this weekend. If this team has some momentum from their win in Loudon and some good strategy, though, a top ten could happen.
12. Clint Bowyer – Starts 26th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.7
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Bowyer has been really disappointing lately (average finish of 29th in the past three Sprint Cup races) but he’s good at this track (average finish of 11.6 and a career worst finish of 19th in five starts) and seemed pretty consistent in practice, ending up 5th on the average speed chart. However, Clint was in the teens in all three practice sessions, and that’s where I think he will probably end up on Sunday. This ranking may even be a little too high. In the two times Bowyer has started outside of the top 20 at Indianapolis, he went on to finish 13th and 19th. Proceed with caution.
13. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.4
**Change from my preview: was on avoid list. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Junior has had just one top 20 in the past four races at Indianapolis, and he hasn’t finished in the top 10 since Pocono in June, but you have to believe he’s going to break out of this little slump soon…right? The #88 was pretty consistent in all three practice sessions, ending up 13th, 11th, and 16th, which gave Earnhardt Jr. the 11th-best average speed. He finished 6th at Pocono, and posted a 15th-place effort in New Hampshire, so I think Junior can be counted on for a solid top 15. If this team does everything right, though, a top 10 could happen. With the way their luck has been going, though, don’t count on it.
14. Kyle Busch – Starts 29th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.8 (one win)
**Change from my preview: -8 spots. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
This weekend is looking very similar to Pocono back in June. Kyle Busch looked terrible then (25th in average speed) and he doesn’t look sporty at all this weekend (19th in average speed, and 32nd and 21st in the final two practice sessions). I didn’t recommend picking “Rowdy” in Pocono, and he went on to finish 3rd–albeit he had to forfeit some points for a penalty. Will lightning strike twice? It’s possible I guess; Kyle has four top 10s in six starts at Indy and just one finish outside of the top 15. This may be too low of a ranking, but I really don’t see any speed from the Gibbs Toyota’s (Hamlin is a major question mark) and the blown engine for the #11 in second practice makes me worry.
15. Brad Keselowski – Starts 5th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.8 (one win)
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I left BK off of my Preview because I figured that their strong run was going to end here soon, but I think I may have pulled the trigger a little too soon. His first start at this track came last year, and Keselowski posted a solid 19th-place finish after starting 11th. The Blue Deuce was 10th on the average speed chart and Brad laid down the 14th-fastest lap in Happy Hour on Saturday, so a top fifteen isn’t out of the question on Sunday.
Just Outside The Top Fifteen For The Brickyard 400:
16. David Ragan – Ragan ended up in the top five in two of the three practice sessions that were held this weekend, which helped him put the #6 Ford in the 8th spot in terms of average speed. David’s average finish at Indianapolis is 18.5, but he hasn’t finished better than 20th in his last two starts here after his first two gave him 16th and 14th-place finishes. Ragan finished 17th at Pocono in June and rolls off the grid on the pole tomorrow. With a little luck, he may post a career-best finish at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Sunday.
17. Jeff Burton – Burton wound up 13th on the average speed chart (I thought this team might build on their good run last weekend) but it’s still hard for me to rank him in the top 15. Once he can finally break through and get a top 10 this season, you may start seeing the #31 a little higher on the rankings week in and week out. Until then, though, I’m still going to be down on Burton, simply because he has burned fantasy owners so much this season. He starts 13th and has three top 10s in the last four races at Indianapolis, though, so this could be the week, although I doubt it.
18. Denny Hamlin – In case you didn’t watch practice, Hamlin blew an engine in the second session and will have to start from the rear of the field on Sunday. It’s hard to pass at this track and Denny’s going to be very patient if he expects to post a finish close to his career average here (16.8). He had a decent average speed in Happy Hour, but that’s not much to go off of, and the fact that Hamlin was 28th in terms of one fast lap worries me. He may surprise me, but a top 10 out of this team on Sunday would be considered a win in my opinion.
19. A.J. Allmendinger – I’m not sure what to think of The Dinger this weekend. He starts near the front (6th) but his average speed during the three practice sessions was good enough for just 31st-best out of the top 35 in owner’s points. A.J. has never finished worse than 20th in three career starts at Indianapolis, and unless he gets in a wreck on Sunday, I don’t expect that to change, but I just don’t know what to expect out of his car. The #43 Ford will either be really strong or just average when the green flag waves on Sunday.
20. Mark Martin – “The Kid” hasn’t finished worse than 11th at Indianapolis since 2004, but I’d be willing to bet that will change on Sunday. I don’t need to say anything about this team’s season, so I won’t, but he was just 24th on the average speed chart, and the highest position in any of the practice that Martin ended up was 19th in the first practice. He will start in 12th on Sunday.
Stay Away From These Drivers For The Brickyard 400:
Joey Logano – I’m not sure what to think of “Sliced Break” this weekend, so I’m going to go ahead and avoid him. They didn’t find any speed in practice (30th in average speed) except for the second session when Logano laid down the 7th-fastest lap. However, he was 40th in first practice and 34th in Happy Hour. Joey finished 11th at Pocono, but he didn’t practice too bad that weekend, and the fact that his teammate, Denny Hamlin, blew an engine in second practice makes me want to stay away from picking the #20.
Regan Smith – Smith has been decently fast all weekend, posting the 15th-best average speed, and he was 11th in the first practice session. However, he has never finished better than 31st at Indianapolis and even though he should have got a top fifteen at the flat track in New Hampshire, Smith once again disappointed fantasy owners in the end by running out of fuel. He finished 15th at Pocono, so there’s some potential there, but I wouldn’t recommend putting Regan on your roster this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. – I’m starting to like Truex on the flat tracks (he has scored top 10s at both Pocono and Loudon this year) but I’m going to wait until he can finish the deal at Indianapolis before I put him on my roster when the series visits this track. Martin ended up 26th on the average speed chart and really only laid one good lap down (in second practice, where he ranked 2nd) this weekend. With one top 15 finish in six career starts (and an average career finish of 23.3) I’ll go ahead and pass on the #56 this weekend, even though he was my dark horse of the week coming into this Brickyard weekend.
Paul Menard – Menard posted a solid 14th-place finish here last season, but I don’t see him coming close to that this weekend. He ranked 23rd on the average speed chart and was never above 21st in any of the practice sessions. He brought the #27 Chevrolet home in 14th at Pocono, so I may be wrong, but I see Menard finishing around 18th at best on Sunday–and you don’t win fantasy leagues by picking the drivers who finish there.
Marcos Ambrose – The Tasmanian Devil has been very consistent in all of his Indianapolis starts, with finishes of 22nd, 22nd, and 21st, and while I think he will continue that consistency on Sunday, that’s not a good thing for his fantasy owners. Ambrose ended up 22nd on the average speed chart and failed to post a practice position higher than 23rd in the three sessions. He’s performed well in races I didn’t think he would this season, but I just don’t see that happening on Sunday.
Trevor Bayne – Don’t be like ESPN and get caught up in Trevor Bayne’s hype: he’ll be lucky to finish this 400 mile race on Sunday.
My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:
OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Kevin Harvick, Darkhorse – Juan Montoya
Yahoo!: A-List: Carl Edwards, B-List: Juan Montoya & Kasey Kahne, C-List: Landon Cassill
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle, Ryan Newman, Joey Logano, Mike Bliss
Racing4Glory.com “The Showdown”: Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Juan Montoya, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Greg Biffle, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth
