Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Michigan 2 – Pure Michigan 400 (Post Happy Hour)
We actually got to see the cars on the track after qualifying this weekend, so be sure to check out my Practice Breakdown to see who will probably be fast (at the beginning anyway) during the Pure Michigan 400. Roush-Fenway teammates Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth took the front row in qualifying, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. If you read Ryan’s Scouting Report, you know that qualifying is overrated here, though, so that doesn’t guarantee a good finish for the drivers that were fast on Friday. In case you missed my Preview on Wednesday, just click here to see how my mind changed on some drivers after practice and qualifying were done. Good luck to all fantasy racers this weekend and don’t forget that you can always send me a tweet if you have a question!
Pick Six Fantasy NASCAR Game: How good are you at predicting the results of each race? I’m holding a FREE fantasy NASCAR game for anyone interested, and someone is guaranteed to win money. All you have to do is guess the top six finishers of each race, and they don’t even have to be in order! Click here to post your Pick Six picks for the Pure Michigan 400. The pot is at $72.63 this week. Good luck!
Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Pure Michigan 400:
1. Kyle Busch – Starts 17th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.6 (four wins)
**Change from my preview: +1 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Sorry Kyle Busch haters, but as long as he doesn’t get wrecked or have a mechanical issue, expect “Rowdy” to give a bow when it’s all said and done on Sunday. He wanted to quit Happy Hour early because he was that happy with the #18 Toyota, but crew chief Dave Rogers wanted to test some things to make the car even faster. If he started closer to the front, I would expect a dominating effort like the Kentucky race earlier this season, but Kyle is going to have some cars to pass to get to the front (he should do that pretty quickly, though). Busch came in sixth on the average speed chart and had the second-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He finished 3rd here in June after starting 24th and leading 59 laps.
2. Matt Kenseth – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.9 (three wins)
**Change from my preview: +1 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Whenever Kenseth starts near the front, he has an awesome car and is a threat to win the race, as you should know by now. This is the same chassis that Matt won with at Texas and finished 2nd with at the first Michigan race in June. Unless something crazy happens, expect the two that will be challenging for the win to be Kenseth and Kyle. In twenty-four career starts at Michigan International Speedway, Matt has recorded fifteen top 10s and just one finish outside of the top 20. He has started in the top five three different times at this track and those races ended with Kenseth in 8th, 1st, and 2nd. He was 8th in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average.
3. Greg Biffle – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.9 (two wins)
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
The Biff has two wins at Michigan and, while I don’t think it will happen, he has a chance to grab a third on Sunday. He starts on the pole and led the most laps here back in June (68) but ended up a disappointing 15th. However, I think a solid top 5 is the most likely thing for Biffle this weekend. With 301 laps led in The Irish Hills, that places Greg fifth on the list of full-time active drivers at Michigan in terms of laps led and his average finish of 12.4 is sixth-best in the series. Biffle was 7th on the average speed chart and had the seventh-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour.
4. Denny Hamlin – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.6 (one win)
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
His 18th-place ranking on the average speed chart isn’t great, but can you seriously bet against a driver who has two wins and a runner-up finish in the last three races at a track? I didn’t think so. Hamlin’s 10th-place average finish is third best in the series and he is on a streak of five-straight top 10s at this 2-mile track, which I fully expect him to make six-straight after Sunday. His teammate is wicked fast so I would think that Hamlin will have close to the same horsepower as the #18. Hamlin’s only finish here worse than 14th at Michigan was because of an engine problem in 2008.
5. Jeff Gordon – Starts 9th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.8
**Change from my preview: +5 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Gordon is really happy with his car and has posted twenty-three top 10s in thirty-seven career starts at Michigan International Speedway and two wins. He didn’t rank very high on the average speed chart but that doesn’t worry me very much because of how confident he sounded on the radio during Happy Hour. He has a top ten starting position and I think he will stay up there for most of the race and has a real good shot at a top 5. Gordon has slipped recently at Michigan (27th and 17th-place finishes in the last two races) but before that he had three-straight top 5s here.
6. Kurt Busch – Starts 13th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.2
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The elder Busch brother is nearly as fast as his brother, but I don’t see him challenging for the win like I see Kyle doing. Kurt ended up 3rd on the average speed chart and had the third-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour as well. However, his history at this race track isn’t very good to say the least. Kurt has made twenty-one starts at Michigan International Speedway and owns just eight top 10s. He has also completed just over 84% of the laps ran, which is concerning. However, this team has been good week in and week out and I think we will see Busch get his ninth top 10 on Sunday. If you’re superstitious, though, you may want to avoid him this weekend: in the last three August races at Michigan, Kurt Busch has finished 40th, 36th, and 36th.
7. Brad Keselowski – Starts 6th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.1 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +7 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Remember the Kentucky race when BK started 6th and led 79 laps before finishing 7th? Expect him to run in the top ten all race on Sunday as well. This team is fast week in and week out and this weekend is obviously not an exception. Keselowski came in 9th on the average speed chart and had the fifth-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. This is his home track and with a little luck he may just notch his third straight top 5. However, Brad has never finished better than 24th at Michigan, and that is the reason I have him in the “Medium Risk” category and ranked a little lower than he should be.
8. Paul Menard – Starts 11th – Yahoo! Fantasy C Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 8.8 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +12 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Menard is on a mission to prove that his 4th-place finish here in June was not a fluke and as long as nothing bad happens to him on Sunday, he should make it two top 10s in a row in The Irish Hills. This is the same chassis from the June race, by the way. Menard ended up 2nd on the average speed chart and had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour of anyone. I don’t see Paul getting another win (or even a top five for that matter) but if he wants to make the Chase, he’s going to have to be as good as advertised in Michigan this weekend and be solid for the following three races.
9. Kevin Harvick – Starts 24th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.1 (one win)
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Harvick is the defending winner of this race, but that is his only top ten in the last five races here. However, I expect that to change on Sunday. He starts mid-pack, which is something I’m sure “Happy” is used to, but ranked 10th on the average speed chart and should make his way toward the front early. They didn’t make a ten-lap run in Happy Hour, though, which concerns me, but Harvick won at California earlier this year (also a 2-mile track) and his average finish of 14.7 at Michigan International Speedway is ninth-best in the series.
10. David Ragan – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy C Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.8
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
As you know by now, you shouldn’t go against the Roush-Fenway Fords at Michigan, and while David Ragan isn’t as good as the other three, he’s not too shabby here. He has a 3rd-place finish to his name, which came back in 2008, and while David’s best finish has been 11th in the last five races at this track, he could change that this weekend. He didn’t blow anyone away in practice, but I like that Ragan starts 7th, and he should be a top fifteen driver when it’s all said and done.
11. Mark Martin – Starts 5th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.8
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
As I’m typing this article up, Mark Martin is dominating the Truck Series race, and I honestly think he has a shot at the win in the Cup Series race on Sunday as well. However, this is Mark Martin we are talking about, and to say his season has been a disappointment would be an understatement. This #5 Chevrolet is wicked fast, though, posting the fastest lap in Happy Hour and ending up 5th on the average speed chart. Martin finished 9th here in June and is a five-time winner at Michigan, but because he has been so unreliable this season, I’m going to conservatively place him in 12th.
12. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 19th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.9 15.1 (one win)
**Change from my preview: -4 spots. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Michigan is nowhere near JJ’s best track (he has just seven top 10s in nineteen starts) and this isn’t going to be the best weekend to pick him. He has started outside of the top ten just six times in his career at Michigan and Johnson ended those races in 27th, 19th, 27th, 16th, 7th, and 14th. Not that good, right? However, this is the same chassis that “Five Time” finished 3rd with at Kentucky and his teammates are all decently fast, so you have to believe Johnson and Chad Knaus will get things figured out on Sunday, though. He has just one top 10 in the last six Michigan races, and while I think he could finish there on Sunday, you probably won’t find Jimmie on too many of my rosters this weekend. “The Champ” has the fifth-best average driver rating over the last five Michigan races.
13. Carl Edwards – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.2
**Change from my preview: -12 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Looking at the practice session speeds and Carl Edwards’ qualifying effort, I’m starting to think that this 13th-place ranking is too high. However, this is Michigan and this is Carl Edwards. His average start here is 20.9, which explains the bad qualifying result, but his average speed ended up being a lot lower than normal, and they didn’t run very many laps compared to the rest of the Roush-Fenway stable. Going into this race, I see the #99 Ford as a 20th-place car at best, but you have to believe by the end Carl will be a lot higher than that. I don’t see him coming close to his career average finish here, though, which is right around 6th.
14. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 8th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.4 (one win)
**Change from my preview:+3 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
What’s going on? Junior starting in the top ten–that never happens! We all know about this win here in 2008, but in twenty-four starts in The Irish Hills, Junebug has just eight top 10s and an average finish of 15.9. He looked decent in practice and wound up 13th on the average speed chart, so the #88 may stay in the top ten for a little bit at the beginning of the race, but I see Junior getting a mid-teens finish on Sunday, which is really all that is needed for him to stay in the top ten in points. He finished 21st here in June.
15. Ryan Newman – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 12.8 (one win)
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Newman has been quite the surprise on the intermediate tracks this season, and with his 3rd-place qualifying effort, he may be able to notch his sixth top 10 after his twenty-first start at Michigan International Speedway. “The Rocketman” was decent in practice (ranking 15th on the average speed chart) and had the sixth-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Newman started 13th and finished 6th here in June, and that was his first top 10 at this track since his win here in 2004.
Just Outside The Top Fifteen For The Pure Michigan 400:
16. Tony Stewart – “Smoke” needs to have solid runs in the next four races if he wants to make the Chase, and his average finish of 11.6 is fifth-best in the series at Michigan, but I’m not sure how he will race on Sunday. This is the same #14 chassis that Stewart finished 7th with here in June, though, so this ranking could be really low when it’s all said and done. He logged a lot of laps in practice–as normal–so that’s probably the reason Tony was so low on the average speed chart.
17. Brian Vickers – I thought this would be the weekend that this Red Bull team would try to salvage a decent season, but I don’t see Vickers getting his seventh top 10 in a row in The Irish Hills on Sunday anymore. He starts 26th, and should come up through the field throughout the race, but I don’t see this #83 Toyota being any better than a 15th-place car unless they gamble on fuel in the end. Brian ended up 17th on the average speed chart.
18. Trevor Bayne – As I said in my Preview, Trevor should be a solid top 20 pick on Sunday (and a great “start saver” in allocation leagues). He usually finishes right around where he starts, and Bayne will roll off the grid in 20th on Sunday. He finished 16th here in June and had a very respectable average practice speed this weekend..
19. Clint Bowyer – This car seems really fast, but Bowyer starts really deep in the field (35th) and his average finish at this track (19.3) is keeping me from ranking him much higher than 19th. Two of his three top 10s at this track have came when Clint started outside the top 20, so he may surprise me this weekend, but he hasn’t had a top 10 since Infineon in June and I don’t think that will change on Sunday.
20. Marcos Ambrose – I don’t like going against a recent winner but, quite simply put, Marcos Ambrose isn’t very good at Michigan. He has a couple of 15th-place finishes here, but Ambrose’s four other starts at Michigan have all ended with him outside of the top 20. He was 8th on the average speed chart and ranked 9th in terms of ten-lap average during Happy Hour, but I don’t see Marcos being ending up much higher than his starting position (16th).
Stay Away From These Drivers For The Pure Michigan 400:
Martin Truex, Jr. – He will roll off the grid in 15th but I don’t think it will take too long before Truex finds himself in the mid-twenties. I have no speed out of this Toyota in either practice, and to be honest, I’m not sure how he qualified that high. Martin finished 8th here last August but that has been his only finish better than 16th in the last seven Michigan races.
David Reutimann – These are Reutty’s favorite types of tracks but Michigan hasn’t been to kind to him over his career. Reutimann finished 9th here in 2009 but that is his only top 10 in nine career starts and his average finish in The Irish Hills is a dismal 20.4. When one Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota is struggling during a weekend, typically the other will as well. I see Reutimann as a top 20 car at best.
Carl Edwards – This isn’t the weekend I was expecting from Cousin Carl at all. He qualified mid-pack (22nd) and really didn’t show much speed in either practice session (24th on the average speed chart). Edwards’ average finish in The Irish Hills is 6th, but I don’t see him coming home anywhere close to that on Sunday. I have him ranked 13th just because of his history at this track and for all we know he could have just been experimenting with different setups all weekend.
Jimmie Johnson – See what I said above about the five-time Sprint Cup champion.
My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:
OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Kyle Busch, Darkhorse – Paul Menard
Yahoo!: A-List: Matt Kenseth, B-List: Brad Keselowski & Joey Logano, C-List: Trevor Bayne
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, Brian Vickers, Landon Cassill
