Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Richmond 2 – Wonderful Pistachios 400 (Post Qualifying)

Expect To See Some Familiar Cars Up Front On Saturday Night

The “regular season” of NASCAR will end on Saturday night, and thankfully we can all now stop hearing about clinching scenarios (I think Tony Stewart wants that talk to stop as well). Richmond is a 0.75-mile track and any racing on a short, flat track underneath the light is generally very entertaining. Two practice sessions were ran on Friday afternoon, and while I’m not sure how important those speeds will be to determine which drivers will be good during the race, you can click here to check that out.

Likely Start and Parks:
David Stremme (starts 27th)
Michael McDowell (starts 31st)
Dave Blaney (starts 34th–was S&P last week because of kidney stones)
Robby Gordon (starts 37th)
Scott Speed (starts 41st–wasn’t S&P last week, so maybe not)

Pick Six Fantasy NASCAR Game: How good are you at predicting the results of each race? There is a FREE fantasy game being held: all you  have to do is guess the top six finishers of each race, and they don’t even have to be in order! Click here to post your Pick Six picks for the Wonderful Pistachios 400. Good luck!

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Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Wonderful Pistachios 400:

1. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.3 (six wins)
**Chassis selection: no. 590 (same chassis from New Hampshire race in July where Johnson finished 5th)**
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I have said for the last month and a half…okay maybe two months…that Johnson will not go into this year’s Chase with only one victory. Well, this is the last week I get to say that, and I think we will see the #48 Chevrolet in victory lane once it’s all said and done on Saturday night. Jimmie’s average finish of 16.5 isn’t stellar to say the least, but he has three wins here and has notched four top 10s in the last five races here. Johnson had the second-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour and was 8th on the average speed chart. I’m giving him the nod over the next two drivers this weekend because of his starting position.

2. Jeff Gordon – Starts 17th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 11.7 (three wins)
**Chassis selection: no information available**
**Change from my preview: no change — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
We very well could see another finish exactly like Tuesday’s in Atlanta at Richmond Saturday night. The #24 Chevrolet has been real fast all weekend and I was set to pick Gordon to win two weeks in a row before he went out and laid down that average lap in qualifying. However, his car is real good on the long runs (best ten-lap average during Happy Hour) and before last year’s disappointing efforts at Richmond, Jeff Gordon has seven straight top 10s at this race track. With the way this team is performing lately, how can you go against the 24 this weekend? I wouldn’t recommend it if you plan to.

3. Kyle Busch – Starts 13th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.2 (two wins)
**Chassis selection: no. 308 (same from Kentucky race where Kyle dominated and won)**
**Change from my preview: -2 spots. — Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
We all know about Rowdy Busch’s record at Richmond: thirteen starts, three wins, and an incredible average finish of 4.9. It doesn’t really matter where he starts, either, because last year Kyle rolled off the grid in 32nd and 20th in the two races and finished 1st and 2nd. Busch had the ninth-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour and ended up 5th on the average speed chart, which is usually a very good sign for Rowdy fans. Kyle will definitely be up front some time during the race, and I think he will definitely continue his five-race streak of top 5s at Richmond International Raceway.

4. Kevin Harvick – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.4 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. 332 (same one from April Martinsville race where Harvick won)**
**Change from my preview: +3 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
“Happy” Harvick isn’t much of a qualifier, so when you see his name starting in the top 10, he will generally be a pretty good pick. Harvick won here back in 2006 and in the last fourteen races at Richmond, he has finished worse than 12th just once. I wouldn’t expect that to change on Saturday night. Kevin ranked 3rd on the average speed chart this weekend and had the seventh-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Remember: this is the same chassis that Harvick won with in Martinsville, which is not unlike Richmond.

5. Clint Bowyer – Starts 5th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.2
**Chassis selection: no. 365 (same from New Hampshire where Bowyer finished 17th)**
**Change from my preview: +5 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I think it will be too little too late for Bowyer, but he should be giving it his all this weekend in Richmond, which has been a very good track for him. Clint has made eleven starts at RIR and owns a career average finish of 9.5, which is third-best in the series. He won here in 2008 but that has been Bowyer’s only top 5 at Richmond despite having six top 10s. Clint didn’t impress me very much in terms of ten-lap average, but he did have the ninth-best average speed during both practice sessions and has finished worse than 12th just once in his career here.

6. A.J. Allmendinger – Starts 9th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.9
**Chassis selection: no. 736 (same from last Loudon race where Allmendinger finished 12th)**
**Change from my preview: +5 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I will warn you before I start: generally when I am very high on A.J. Allmendinger going into the race, something happens (like his heartbreaking engine failure at Dover earlier this year). However, I’m still going to pick him this weekend and hope for the best. The pairing of Allmendinger and crew chief Greg Erwin has turned this team around and the #43 Ford hasn’t finished worse than 12th in last month. At Richmond, A.J. has two top 10 finishes in a row and he ran the second-most amount of laps in practice this weekend, which tells me that he’s very comfortable with his car. I think this team has a shot at a surprise top 5 finish.

7. Denny Hamlin – Starts 28th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 11.6 (two wins)
**Chassis selection: no information available**
**Change from my preview: -2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
The #11 Toyota has struggled to find speed all weekend, which is the reason I have him as “Medium Risk” for the race Saturday night. Hamlin’s history at Richmond is great–two wins and an average finish of 7.5 in eleven starts–and that is the reason I have him ranked inside the top 10. If I was going strictly off of practice speeds, I’d have Denny and his Toyota as top 15 at best. He said they were experimenting with the car during the practice sessions, though, and will be going back to the setup that they had in the April race here, where Hamlin finished 2nd.

8. Carl Edwards – Starts 8th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.9 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. RK-756 (same from last Richmond race where he finished 5th)**
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
If you haven’t noticed yet, the #99 team doesn’t like to run many laps in practice, so it makes it very difficult to predict what kind of car they will have for race day. Having a limited number of laps on the tires generally keeps the average speed up, so that is probably why you see Edwards and Kenseth at the top of the average speed chart. I think Carl has a pretty good Ford this weekend, but I just don’t see him coming close to winning unless fuel mileage somehow becomes a factor. The last three races here have ended with Edwards in 5th-place twice and 10th once, and Edwards had the eleventh-best ten-lap average during first practice. I think he’ll grab a solid top 10 but not much more on Saturday night.

9. Tony Stewart – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.6 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. 650 (same from Phoenix race in February where Smoke finished 7th)**
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
If you watched the two practice sessions on Friday afternoon, you probably remember how the announcers kept mentioning how fast this #14 Chevrolet was on the long runs, and they were right. “Smoke” ended up in the top ten in both practice sessions in terms of ten-lap average, and even though he was just 22nd on the average speed chart, I wouldn’t be worried about it (that’s where Stewart normally ends up anyway). I don’t think Tony will have as fast as a car as he did last weekend during the final run at Atlanta, but I don’t expect him to stay near his starting position very long once the green flag waves Saturday night. Stewart’s average finish of 11th at Richmond is fourth-best in the series and he has sixteen top 10s in twenty-five career starts.

10. Kasey Kahne – Starts 12th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.0
**Chassis selection: no information available**
**Change from my preview: +3 spots. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kasey Kahne has been less than reliable this season, but he hasn’t been too bad on the flat tracks. Remember, in my preview, I said: “Kasey finished 6th at both Phoenix and New Hampshire earlier this year.” At Richmond, Kahne has one win in fifteen career starts and owns an average finish of 17.9. If this team can put a full race together, though, I expect that number to decrease once the checkered flag waves on Saturday night. Kahne had the fifth-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour and ended up 11th on the average speed chart. It’s risky, but the #4 Toyota seems to have the speed to stay near its starting position Saturday night (12th).

11. Jamie McMurray – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.0
**Chassis selection: no. 1007 (same from April Martinsville race where Jamie Mac got the pole and finished 7th)**
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Extreme Risk**
Most fantasy racers–myself included–wrote Jamie McMurray off after the first ten (or so) races of the season, but one major key to being successful is having a short memory. This team has really turned things around recently and have been running pretty well for the last month (and actually got some finishes, too: 5th at Bristol, 4th at Indianapolis). This is the same chassis that McMurray put on the pole at Martinsville in April and went on to lead 31 laps and finish 7th. His history–just three top 10s and an average finish of 24.3 in seventeen starts–isn’t stellar at Richmond, though, which is one reason I have him in the “Extreme Risk” category. McMurray had the sixth-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour and wound up 12th on the average speed chart.

12. Ryan Newman – Starts 18th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.8 15.1 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no information available**
**Change from my preview: -7 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
“The Rocketman” is at his best when the series stops at a flat track but I just don’t see the speed we normally do in the #39 Chevrolet this weekend. Newman ended up 19th on the average speed chart and was 20th and 19th in terms of ten-lap average during the two practice sessions. However, Ryan has the fifth-best average finish here of anyone in the series (11.8) and he has finished outside of the top 20 just two times in seventeen career starts at this track. I wouldn’t expect that to change on Saturday night.

13. Joey Logano – Starts 16th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.4
**Chassis selection: no information available**
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This track has been kind to Joe Gibbs Racing and Joey Logano is no exception. “Sliced Bread” was 7th on the average speed chart and he had the best ten-lap average during the first practice session. Logano has made five career starts at this race track and has one top 10 (a 4th-place effort in this race last season) while never finishing worse than 19th. I expect a mid-teens finish out of Joey on Saturday night, probably close to where he will roll off the grid.

14. Brad Keselowski – Starts 19th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.3 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. PRS-754 (brand new chassis)**
**Change from my preview: -8 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
For the first time in what seems like forever, Brad Keselowski isn’t the definite best pick in the Yahoo! B group. I still think he will be good for a top 15, though. When they interviewed BK during practice, he didn’t sound happy at all, but the Blue Deuce was in the top 15 in both practice sessions in terms of ten-lap average. Keselowski has made four stops at Richmond International Raceway and has two top 15s as well as two finishes outside of the top 35. The former is much more likely to be the result on Saturday night.

15. Mark Martin – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.1 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. 5-663 (brand new chassis)**
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This will be Mark Martin’s fifty-second career start at Richmond International Raceway Saturday night and “The Kid” has notched twenty-seven top 10s over the first fifty-one. Will Martin be able to make it twenty-eight on Saturday night? It’s possible, and he definitely got off to a good start by qualifying 4th, but I think a finish in the teens is much more likely for this #5 Chevrolet. Martin was 10th in average speed and had the third-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour, so this car seems to have some speed, but this is Mark Martin we are talking about. He started 5th here in April and finished 14th.

Stay Away From These Drivers For The Wonderful Pistachios 400:

Juan Montoya – The #42 Chevrolet was pretty much junk for both practice sessions on Friday and the team put Jamie McMurray’s setup on it before qualifying. Montoya was able to lay down a pretty fast lap (he starts 10th) but being comfortable and fast in a setup that you aren’t used to isn’t going to be easy during the race. These teammates have different driving styles and by about lap 20 I’m sure we’ll hear about Montoya hating his car as he’s dropping (probably quickly) in the running order.

Marcos Ambrose – Marcos has a couple of top 10s at Richmond, but those have came when he has started a lot better than he will on Saturday night (34th). He had the 27th best ten-lap average in Happy Hour out of 28 drivers and wound up 25th on the average speed chart. I think that a top 20 would feel like a win for Ambrose and this team on Saturday night.

David Reutimann – I didn’t really expect a pole run out of this team, so I was a little surprised once qualifying was over, but I wouldn’t expect Reutimann to stay up front very long on Saturday night. He has made nine starts at this track and Reutty’s average finish here is 20.7. In the spring race here last season, Reutimann started on the outside pole and finished 15th. His Toyota will be a top 20 car at best.

My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:

OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Jimmie Johnson,  Darkhorse – A.J. Allmendinger
Yahoo!: A-List: Kyle Busch, B-List: Jamie McMurray & A.J. Allmendinger, C-List: Regan Smith
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, A.J. Allmendinger, Martin Truex, Jr., Mike Bliss