Scouting Report: Kansas Hollywood Casino 400
How to make an informed pick for the Kansas Hollywood Casino 400
1) To make an informed pick it’s important to look at similar track races that have been run this year. When you look at similar track races don’t just look at the finish position. Examine the drivers overall body of work for the race. The two races I would specifically focus on are the recent Chicagoland race and the August Michigan race.
2) Practice will be extremely important this week. If a driver struggles in practice look for them to also struggle in the race.
3) It’s important to look at past races at Kansas to make an informed fantasy pick this week. When you study the stats it’s pretty clear that some drivers are a tier above their peers
4) If you pick your drivers solely based off qualifying then you’re in trouble. Track position is important but at wide intermediate tracks like Kansas the importance of starting up front is minimized.
Drivers to watch in the Hollywood Casino 400:
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has finished in the top ten in five consecutive Kansas races. Earlier this year he finished 7th and had an average running position of 9.9 despite starting 31st. If qualifying points matter to you Johnson has started in the top 4 in six of his ten starts. At Chicagoland Johnson had the fourth best driver rating (113.7) and had an average running position of 5th.
Carl Edwards – Edwards has never won at Kansas but he’ll do whatever it takes to visit victory lane. Remember his 2008 video game pass on the last lap? Carl Edwards will be on the short list of drivers to beat this Sunday. Earlier this year Edwards had an average running position of 4th and he was one of only three drivers who ran the entire race inside the top fifteen. Edwards has four consecutive top tens at Kansas.
Matt Kenseth – You can never count out Matt Kenseth at a intermediate track and Kansas is no exception. His track record is “spotty” but he’s a intermediate track work horse. In the last two Kansas races Kenseth finished 6th and 7th. His 110.9 driver rating in these two races ranks 5th best in the series. Also in terms of evaluating Matt Kenseth for Kansas you can’t gloss over how well he performed at Chicagoland (114.2 driver rating, third best).
Jeff Gordon – Jeff Gordon won the first two races at Kansas Speedway back in 2001 and 2002. Jeff Gordon can top Jimmie Johnson’s consecutive Kansas streak. Gordon has finished in the top 5 in five consecutive races. In the eleven races run at Kansas Gordon has only finished outside the top ten twice. One area of concern is his Chicagoland performance. He simply wasn’t good. His 20.7 average running position is nothing to get excited about.
Tony Stewart – Stewart is a two-time Kansas winner and in the Hollywood Casino 400 I’m not sure if I would want to bet against him. In the last three Kansas races Stewart has three straight top eight finishes and has led +20 laps in every race. Stewart won at Chicagoland so there’s no question in my mind he’ll be a factor. Stewart has only finished outside the top ten three times in his career at Kansas.
Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:
- Kansas Pre Race Loop Data
- Drivers Stats Over The Last Three Races At Kansas
- Box Score From The June Kansas Race
- Kansas Entry List
- Who’s A Good Chase Driver
FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum Over The Last Five Races:
- Carl Edwards
- Kevin Harvick
- Tony Stewart
- Kurt Busch
- Jeff Gordon
- Brad Keselowski
- Jimmie Johnson
- Matt Kenseth
- Kyle Busch
- Juan Pablo Montoya
