Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Auto Club 400
Rain, Rain Stay Away
If you haven’t been paying attention this weekend, chances are we aren’t going to see any racing on Sunday afternoon, although a mad dash to halfway could happen. If the latter occurs, it could easily become a toss-up as to who visits victory lane. Right now I’m thinking that we race on Monday. So will the practice speeds from Saturday matter? Here’s the average practice speeds for you to study. Whenever we race, Denny Hamlin will lead the field to the green with his team mate, Kyle Busch, alongside. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Finally, you can also follow me on Twitter (@FanNASCARPredic) and tweet me if you have any questions.
Projected Start & Parkers: David Stremme, Josh Wise, Scott Riggs, J.J Yeley, Mike Bliss, Reed Sorenson.
Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Auto Club 400:
1. Tony Stewart – Starts 9th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
It’s just too hard to go against the guy that has been so dominant on these intermediate tracks as of late. Smoke will start in 9th once the Auto Club 400 starts and when he shows up strong in practice, you know his Chevy will be good come race time. Stewart was 12th on the average speed chart and was in the top 10 in both ten-lap average charts for the Saturday practice sessions. He finished 13th here last season, but ran a great race and was in the top 5 for almost half of the race. Before that, Stewart had four straight top 10s at this track, including a victory in the 2010 fall race. He has also finished worse than 13th just once in the last ten events here.
2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
I’m not going to bore you with Five Time’s record at his home track. This team has (somewhat) quietly put together a streak of three top 10s since the opening disaster at Daytona and should be pretty much a lock for a top 5 in the Auto Club 400 this season. Jimmie was 5th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour and 13th on the overall average speed chart.
3. Matt Kenseth – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I’m not really worried about Matt Kenseth’s somewhat poor quaifying effort, but that’s the main reason why I bumped him down from the 1st slot I had him at earlier in the week. I’m expecting to see the #17 near the front within the first 50 laps or so, though, so no worries. Kenseth ended up in 2nd in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average and was 20th on the average speed chart, which is normal for him. He has three wins at Fontana and his average finish of 10th here is third-best in the series. In nineteen starts at this track, Matt has amassed thirteen top 10s and has led just under 500 laps. I expect Kenseth to cross that threshold on Sunday (he only needs 3). If you play NASCAR.com Fantasy LIVE, the #17 would be the first on my list of drivers to pick.
4. Kyle Busch – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
On a positive note, “Rowdy” won’t have his pit crew from the Nationwide Series, who (as I’m typing this) basically just cost him a shot at a win. The Gibbs Toyotas all have some crazy speed but I like Kyle Busch the best of the three, although this is a risky pick for a variety of reasons. This team isn’t running great (one top 10 so far in 2012) and he hasn’t been his “normal” self at Fontana lately, with three finishes of 14th or worse in the last four races. Still, Kyle was 9th on the average speed chart and ended up in 3rd on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour. Busch has amassed nine top 10s in fourteen starts here and owns one victory, which came back in 2005. A win would give this team what they need to go on a run, but I’m not seeing it this weekend. I still like Kyle Busch for a top 5, though.
5. Clint Bowyer – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
You may have read in my Preview that I thought I had Bowyer ranked a little too high at 5th going into the weekend, but I’m fine standing by that now. He scraped the wall in Happy Hour but it was so light that Clint had no idea it happened and the only damage I saw was that some paint was scraped off. He’s going to have a little bit of traffic to deal with, but the #15 Toyota is fast once again this weekend; Bowyer ranked 4th on the average speed chart and was 4th and 16th in ten-lap average during the two practice sessions on Saturday. In case you forgot, Bowyer has the fourth-best average finish at this track (10.6) and has recorded seven top 10s in eleven career starts. It will be eight of twelve once the Auto Club 400 is over.
6. Greg Biffle – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Still sticking with The Biff. He said that this car is the best (handling-wise) that Roush-Fenway has put out, and in Happy Hour it was noted that this team was working on fuel mileage. Could that be a sign that they are that satisfied with this Ford? We’ll find out soon enough. Biffle lacked in speed a little bit (18th on the average speed chart) but was 9th and 11th in the two practice sessions on Saturday in terms of ten-lap average. At Fontana, Greg has just five top 10s in seventeen starts (which explains the Medium Risk) but the good news is four of those five were also top 5s. This team took a minor step back last weekend in Bristol, but they’re stilling one of if not the hottest teams in the garage.
7. Kevin Harvick – Starts 7th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I still don’t see how Harvick has turned around his qualifying skills so much since last season, but I’m not complaining. He will start this year’s Auto Club 400 in 7th and I expect him to run the high line all day and stay in the top 10. I don’t see Harvick winning for a second time in a row at Fontana, but a top 5 isn’t out of the question for this team. He was 2nd on the average speed chart and Kevin has posted four straight top 10s at this track. Expect that to be five straight by the end of 400 miles on Sunday/Monday. He had a good car at Las Vegas a few weeks ago, posting the 6th-best driver rating despite finishing 11th (which is worst finish of the season so far, by the way).
8. Denny Hamlin – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
I honestly don’t remember any other time that Denny Hamlin dominated an entire weekend like this except for those times at Pocono a while ago. He had the best car on Friday and the best car on Saturday (by a large amount, really), so a good run at Fontana is going to come down how the team is able to adjust the car as the track changes and probably some luck, which Hamlin hasn’t found much of at this race track. He won the pole here in 2007 and led 21 laps before getting caught up in an accident and finishing 37th, and started 2nd in this race last season and led 15 laps before blowing an engine and finishing 39th. Denny’s average career finish of 19.2 here is nothing to get excited about, but like I said before, this #11 Toyota will be faster than every other car at the start of the race (best ten-lap average in both Saturday practices, third in overall average speed, and the best laps in both sessions as well). If he had more than one top 5 in his previous eleven starts here, I’d have Hamlin ranked a little higher. It’s going to be all or nothing for those that pick him this weekend.
9. Mark Martin – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Well, what do you know, the #55 Toyota is fast again. Martin will roll off the grid in 3rd for this year’s Auto Club 400 (his best qualifying effort at this track since 2007) and I’m expecting at least a top 10 out of this team whenever the race is ran. Mark was 10th on the average speed chart and ranked 7th in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average. Mark has three top 10s in the last four Fontana events and this team has to have the highest confidence after last week’s run in Bristol with Brian Vickers. I have the exact same thinking on Martin this weekend as I did a few weeks ago in Las Vegas, so let’s hope he has a little better luck in California…and that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. doesn’t run him into the fence.
10. Carl Edwards – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I feel like I’m being a little generous with this ranking for Cousin Carl, but I’ll go with it. This is the same chassis that the #99 team ran in Phoenix and the New Hampshire races in 2011 (posting a win and 8th- and 13th-place finishes) but I’m just not seeing the speed I usually do out of Edwards this weekend. He ended up in 19th on the average speed chart which is well below where we normally find him, even on his bad weekends. This team isn’t running bad, they’re just running worse than we are expecting them to. Carl ended up 12th in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average and I honestly think he’s going to run in the teens for most of the Auto Club 400. He does have eleven top 10s in fourteen career starts here, though, including in six of the last eight Fontana events. There are better picks out there, although I wouldn’t blame you one bit for picking Cousin Carl this weekend (his average finish here is 9th after all).
11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 14th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Junior ended up 5th on the average speed chart and was much more impressive in Happy Hour–6th on the ten-lap average chart–compared to the first practice session on Saturday. Fontana is nowhere near his best track (average finish of 21.7 in nineteen starts) but Earnhardt does have finishes of 16th and 12th in his last two starts at this 2-mile track. The #88 was decently strong a couple weeks ago in Las Vegas but Junior was driving it like a maniac (in my opinion, anyway) and finished 10th after starting 4th. This team hasn’t ended up worse than 15th all season and I wouldn’t expect that to change once this race is overwith.
12. Ryan Newman – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I’m really only giving Newman this spot because of his recent history at these 2-mile race tracks and the fact that he starts near the front. The Rocketman ended up in 14th on the average speed chart but they changed tires at least three times while I was watching, which leads me to believe that the #39’s average speed is skewed a little bit. He was second in ten-lap average during the first practice session on Saturday, though, and this chassis finished 5th in Michigan last season. Newman has finished 5th in the last two Fontana events but his overall history here is shaky (18.2 average finish and just six top 10s in seventeen starts). It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Newman run this race exactly like Las Vegas a couple weeks ago: run in the teens for most of the day and then move toward the front by the end of the day (he finished 4th there, by the way).
13. Brad Keselowski – Starts 17th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Somewhat similar to last week, Bad Brad said that this Blue Deuce is the BEST car he’s ever had….at this track. Which isn’t saying much. Still, like I said in my Preview, expect a career-best run for Keselowski in Fontana this weekend (his best finish in three career starts has been 21st). BK wasn’t great on the average speed chart (25th) but he never is. However, he was 8th on both ten-lap average charts and has a knack for getting to the front for at least one lap, so expect him to lead at least one lap in the Auto Club 400. If this comes down to a fuel mileage race, don’t forget that Keselowski won the race in Kansas last season, which also came down to fuel. I’m expecting at least a top 15 out of BK.
14. Joey Logano – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
He’s won the Nationwide race while I was riding this article, but there are a couple things that are keeping me from putting Sliced Bread in the top 10 in this article, although I think he has a shot at that finish. First, he hasn’t sounded confident at all this weekend to me. Before qualifying, Logano said he didn’t know what line to run and thought he really screwed it up. To his surprise, he will roll off the grid in 8th. Also, this #20 didn’t make a single run of ten consecutive laps in either practice session on Saturday, which is also concerning to me. That being said, his teammates are super fast and Joey is good here when he doesn’t run into trouble (finishes of 14th, 5th, and 11th in 2009 and 2010). Logano was 8th on the average speed chart.
15. Jamie McMurray – Starts 16th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Okay, Jamie Mac, I’ll bite. I wasn’t thinking of this team very much before I noticed them in the top 5 during Happy Hour. The #1 Chevy also ended up in 4th on the ten-lap average chart for that session as well. This chassis finished 14th at Homestead last year, and with this team coming into Fontana with two straight top 10s, maybe they have some confidence and momentum for the Auto Club 400. McMurray has an average finish here right around 17th and has finished in that place in two of the last three races at this track.
Special Note: As usual, Kasey Kahne looks good in practice (best in average speed) and starts up front (5th). They ran limited laps, though, and I don’t think the #5 is anywhere near the best car in the field. He’s going to have a good run eventually but the challenge for fantasy players is picking the week for that to happen. I conducted a recent poll, and of this writing over 50% of participants said they were scared to pick Kahne in fantasy right now because of his bad luck thus far in the 2012 season. It wouldn’t surprise me either way if Kahne finished in the top 10 or in the 30s in this year’s Auto Club 400. The same goes for his team mate, Jeff Gordon. Between the two of those drivers, they own twenty top 10s at this track. Good luck if you put either on your roster(s) this weekend.
Those To Avoid For The Auto Club 400:
Marcos Ambrose – If for some reason you didn’t listen to me in my Preview article, I hope you listen to me know and stay away from Marcos Ambrose this weekend. He’s going to roll off of the grid in 29th whenever this race starts and struggled so much in practice this team couldn’t even get 50 laps in total in the two sessions on Saturday. The Tasmanian has never finished on the lead lap in a race at Auto Club Speedway and I wouldn’t expect that to change with this event, either.
Paul Menard – You probably know by now that the beginning of the season is the time to pick Paul Menard, but I wouldn’t recommend going with that this weekend. This team has struggled all weekend and I would honestly be surprised if they finished in the top 20 unless they put Kevin Harvick’s setup in the #27 Chevy and then gambled on fuel during the race or something. Menard was 28th on the average speed chart and near the bottom of the ten-lap average charts in both sessions. Paul has generally finished near his starting position in his career at this track, and he will roll off the grid in 27th in the Auto Club 400.
