Atlanta Advocare 500 Top Tier Elite Deadline Analysis

Denny Hamlin

What to expect / Areas of concern:

As I said in the predictions post I think Denny Hamlin is now the favorite to win. Harvick said he had the best car so I won’t argue. Practice was extremely important for this race and Hamlin had the best average speed by .7 over the next closest driver.

Starting Position:

7th

Average Practice Speed Ranking

1st (Average Speed Chart)

Chassis Selection:

Joe Gibbs Racing doesn’t report chassis selections.

Pit Stall Location:

Hamlin will be pitting in pit box #20. He has a clear entrance into his pit box and Scott Speed will be pitting in front of him.

What I said about him earlier this week:

Hamlin has had a productive season on 1.5 mile intermediate tracks. He won at Kansas and nearly won at Kentucky. In the five races on 1.5 mile tracks he has a three top fives and an average running position of 9.4. The only driver who has more top five finishes than him is Greg Biffle. I expect a solid performance out of Hamlin at Atlanta. Last season he started in 13th, led 6 laps and finished 8th. When you study drivers it’s important to dig a little deeper than just their finish position. In 2010 he finished 43rd but before he went out with an engine failure he led more than half the laps he completed (led 74 of 143).

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Kasey Kahne

What to expect / Areas of concern:

I trust in Kahne and so should you. He knows how to adapt to changing track conditions and just like Charlotte he’ll be fast when it’s time to go. Look for Kahne to come to life around the mid-point of the race.

Starting Position:

11th

Average Practice Speed Ranking

3rd (Average Speed Chart)

Chassis Selection:

Kahne will be using the chassis he raced with at Indy (Finished 12th)

Pit Stall Location:

Kahne will be pitting in pit box #39. Start and parker Joe Nemechek is pitting behind him and Landon Cassill is pitting in front of him.

What I said about him earlier this week:

I think Kasey Kahne will be the driver to beat in the Advocare 500. He’s the best driver in the series at running the high line and at Atlanta that’s where the race will be won. This two-time Atlanta winner will also be a serious contender for the pole. The last time the series came to Atlanta he won the pole and currently he has four straight top ten starts (at Atlanta). Kahne has been very good on 1.5 mile intermediate tracks this season. His average starting position is 8.2 and his average finish is 7.4. On this style of track (1.5 mile) in 2012 he has four top tens and would be a perfect five for five but at Las Vegas he had late contact with Kenseth and the wall.

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Matt Kenseth

What to expect / Areas of concern:

Kenseth has been as consistent as anyone here and I expect him to get another good finish. In practice he focused on getting the balance of his car right and when it ended he seemed fairly happy. Look for Kenseth to be good on long runs. His 15 lap average was the 2nd best.

Starting Position:

4th

Average Practice Speed Ranking

22nd (Average Speed Chart)

Chassis Selection:

Matt Kenseth will be using the chassis he used at Indy (Involved in accident, finished 35th)

Pit Stall Location:

Kenseth will have pit stall #43. This is the first pit box on pit road. He has a clear entrance into his pit box and Travis Kvapil is pitting behind him.

What I said about him earlier this week:

Kenseth has never won at Atlanta but he’s certainly been good enough to. It would be hard to find a safer pick than Matt for the Advocare 500. Since the second Atlanta race of 2005 he hasn’t finished worse than 13th and in this time span he’s accumulated six top five finishes. Last season Kenseth finished 9th but he was better than that. He started in 6th, had an average running position of 6th, led 64 laps and ended with the second best driver rating (117.0). Kenseth has been very good on 1.5 mile tracks this season. In the five races he has 4 top tens and a 7.6 average running position.