New Hampshire Sylvania 300 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Deadline Analysis
Denny Hamlin
What to expect / Areas of concern:
The #11 team screwed up in qualifying but Hamlin has 300 laps to fix that mistake. That’s more than enough for him. Long runs will be important in the Sylvania 300 and Hamlin’s car is fast over long runs. His average practice speed is 1st and he had the best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. Hamlin also isn’t lacking for confidence this week.
Starting Position:
32nd
Average Practice Speed Rankings:
1st (Average Practice Speed Chart)
PROS Ranking:
1st (PROS Rankings Chart)
Chassis Selection:
Denny Hamlin is using a new chassis this week.
Pit Stall Location:
Denny Hamlin has pit stall #15. Jeff Burton is pitting behind him and Landon Cassill is pitting in front of him. Burton might create difficulty entering as long as he’s ahead of him on the track.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Denny Hamlin had the dominant car at New Hampshire in July. He started in third, led nearly half the race (150 laps) and had the best PROS Ranking. He would’ve won but during the last round of pit stops his crew chief elected for four tires and almost everyone else took two. This caused him to go from the lead all the way back to 13th. He then put on a passing clinic and quickly passed his two tire competitors. At the end he got within 120 feet of Kasey Kahne but the combination of lapped traffic and used up tires couldn’t get him any closer. New Hampshire is the perfect track for Hamlin. It fits both of my prerequisites for what tracks are his best (short and flat). In the last six races at Loudon Hamlin has four top three finishes. The #11 team has been very good on similar tracks this season. He won at Phoenix and a few weeks ago at Richmond he had the car to beat. Denny Hamlin will be a very popular experts pick for the Sylvania 300.
ifantasyrace.com, the way you fantasy race….
[hr]
Tony Stewart
What to expect / Areas of concern:
The theme of the #14 team in all three practices was that they were headed in the right direction and getting back to how they were in 2011. That’s great news if you’re a Tony fan because last year he finished 2nd and 1st. On the average speed chart Stewart ranked 8th.
Starting Position:
3rd
Average Practice Speed Rankings:
8th (Average Practice Speed Chart)
PROS Ranking:
Not Ranked
Chassis Selection:
Tony Stewart is driving a new chassis this week.
Pit Stall Location:
Tony Stewart has pit stall #31. He has a clear entry into his pit box and David Reutimann is pitting in front of him.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Tony Stewart looked lost in July. He got lapped on lap #175 and had a 15th place average running position. He ended up finishing 12th and not at any point in the race did he look competitive. Last year Tony Stewart was very good at New Hampshire. He won last September when Clint Bowyer ran out of gas and in July (2011) he finished 2nd to teammate Ryan Newman. From a career perspective New Hampshire has been a great track for Stewart. He’s won here three times and has a 11.6 average finish and a 11.6 average start. Make sure you read ifantasyrace.com weekend content to know if you should use him.
New Hampshire Expert Picks
[hr]
Jeff Gordon
What to expect / Areas of concern:
I think Jeff Gordon will bounce back this week. He’s starting on the pole and his car is fast. His combined average speed ranking was the 13th best but in practice #2 he had the best 10 lap average. Gordon isn’t points racing this week and I think he’ll play into the mix.
Starting Position:
1st
Average Practice Speed Rankings:
13th (Average Practice Speed Chart)
PROS Ranking:
5th (PROS Rankings Chart)
Chassis Selection:
The #24 team doesn’t report chassis selections.
Pit Stall Location:
Jeff Gordon has pit stall #1. Sam Hornish Jr. is pitting behind him and he has a clear exit out of his pit box. Sam Hornish Jr. is starting at the back and I think it’s unlikely he’ll ever be in front of Gordon. No problems should be expected.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Jeff Gordon had a really good car in July at this one mile oval. He finished 6th and had a 6th place average running position. With the exception of Denny Hamlin nobody had a car that could challenge the entries from the Hendrick stable. Jeff Gordon has been very consistent here. His 6th place finish was his 14th straight top fifteen at Loudon. Last year in the New Hampshire Chase race Jeff Gordon arguably had the best car. He finished 4th and lead nearly a third of the race (led 78 laps). In that race he had the best average running position (3rd) and driver rating (131.5).
[hr]
Clint Bowyer
What to expect / Areas of concern:
Bowyer has a good car this week but it should be noted that he thinks their setup might be to aggressive. Here’s a quote from my Practice #2 Notes “It goes alright but then it pisses the front tires off and they go away the longer I go”. In happy hour he voiced that concern again. I think he’ll be fine though.
Starting Position:
12th
Average Practice Speed Rankings:
6th (Average Practice Speed Chart)
PROS Ranking:
8th (PROS Rankings Chart)
Chassis Selection:
Bowyer is racing the car he drove to victory lane at Richmond.
Pit Stall Location:
Bowyer has pit stall #39. Likely start and parker Reed Sorenson is pitting behind him and likely start and parker Stephen Leicht is pitting in front of him.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Clint Bowyer will be a contender for the win in the Sylvania 300. He’s won this race twice and he’s fresh off his win at Richmond (similar track). In July Clint Bowyer had a really good car. He started in 5th and finished 3rd. He wasn’t as good as Hamlin or the Hendrick guys but he’s definitely a driver who you want on your side this week. Last year in the Chase Bowyer looked like he would be the winner but he ran out of fuel late (Yahoo! Race Chart). It was a reversal of roles between him and Stewart from the Chase 2010 race.
ifantasyrace.com, the way you fantasy race….
[hr]
Jimmie Johnson
What to expect / Areas of concern:
Jimmie Johnson has a car that’s comfortable. The only concern is that Chad Knaus says that they need to find more speed. I’m guessing he’ll find it and finish in the top five.
Starting Position:
20th
Average Practice Speed Rankings:
18th (Average Practice Speed Chart)
PROS Ranking:
3rd (PROS Rankings Chart)
Chassis Selection:
Jimmie Johnson will be racing the same chassis he finished 4th with in July.
Pit Stall Location:
Jimmie Johnson has pit box #26. Casey Mears is pitting behind him and Aric Almirola is pitting in front of him. There’s a small opening ahead of him but it’s not much.
What I said about him earlier this week:
In July Johnson started in 7th and finished 7th. He was better than that though. He was a driver who got burned by the last caution. When the last yellow flag waved it was in the middle of the pit cycle and Johnson just pitted. He was put a lap down but was given the lucky dog. If the last caution didn’t come out I think there’s no question he would’ve finished in the top three (Yahoo! Race Chart). In recent years Johnson has had trouble in the Loudon Chase race. In the last two September races he’s finished 18th and 25th. Since 2007 when you exclude the last two September races he has a worst finish of 9th and an average finish of 5.3. New Hampshire has been a very good track for Johnson. He’s won here 3 times (Last in 2010) and has a 9.9 career average finish.
[hr]
Kyle Busch
What to expect / Areas of concern:
Kyle Busch is the biggest threat to the Chasers at Loudon. His car is fast and earlier this year when he was out front no one could touch him, and that includes Denny Hamlin. Kyle Busch had the 5th fastest combined average speed.
Starting Position:
2nd
Average Practice Speed Rankings:
5th (Average Practice Speed Chart)
PROS Ranking:
7th (PROS Rankings Chart)
Chassis Selection:
Joe Gibbs racing doesn’t report chassis selections.
Pit Stall Location:
Kyle Busch has pit stall #32. Start and parker Joe Nemechek is pitting behind him and he has a clear exit out of his pit box.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Kyle Busch had one of the fastest cars in July. He started on the pole and and began lapping drivers 30 laps into the race. His problems in the race started during his first pit stop. In round #1 of pit road action Kyle Busch had a slow pit stop and he was also busted for being to fast entering. This dropped him all the way back to 21st. Later in the event Kyle Busch had more problems on pit road. He was able to rebound from the first incident because it happened early enough but he couldn’t overcome the second one. Late in the race when he was running mid pack he had trouble making passes.
[hr]
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
What to expect / Areas of concern:
At the start of the weekend the #88 drove like a boat (Practice #1 Notes). At the end of Happy Hour he was pleased with his car and said that they were close to where they need to be. I think Junior will likely finished between 5th and 10th.
Starting Position:
14th
Average Practice Speed Rankings:
14th (Average Practice Speed Chart)
PROS Ranking:
4th (PROS Rankings Chart)
Chassis Selection:
Earnhardt Jr. is racing the car he finished 4th with in July.
Pit Stall Location:
Earnhardt Jr. has pit stall #43. He has a clear entrance into his pit box and Paul Menard is pitting in front of him.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a good performance at Loudon earlier this season. He finished 4th and had a 5th place average running position. New Hampshire has been a good track for Junior. He’s never won here but on occasion he’s had cars that were capable of finishing first. Richmond is a similar track and Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a solid top five car a few weeks ago. His 14th place finish wasn’t a good representation of just how good he was. He won the pole, led 67 laps, had an average running position of 6th and earned the third best driver rating (109.5).
[hr]
Brad Keselowski
What to expect / Areas of concern:
I think Brad Keselowski will be very good in long runs. That was his strength in July. On the average speed chart he ranked 7th. Look for the points leader to have a good day.
Starting Position:
15th
Average Practice Speed Rankings:
7th (Average Practice Speed Chart)
PROS Ranking:
6th (PROS Rankings Chart)
Chassis Selection:
Brad Keselowski will be driving a new chassis this week.
Pit Stall Location:
Keselowski will have pit stall #11.Kelly Bires is pitting behind him (likely start and parker) and Tony Raines is pitting in front of him.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Brad Keselowski is a driver who you should pay attention to at the Magic Mile. Your competition will be focusing on Hamlin and the Hendrick cars but Keselowski is someone who’s also capable of getting the job done. The “Blue Deuce” was really good in July. He started in 22nd and drove up to sixth in only 75 laps. His strength was that his car was really fast over long runs. He ended up finishing 5th and recorded the 7th best driver rating. Last year in the Chase Keselowski had his best result at Loudon. He finished 2nd but it’s important to note it was inflated by pit strategy and the fuel mileage nature of the race. In July Keselowski won the New Hampshire Nationwide race.
[hr]
Kevin Harvick
What to expect / Areas of concern:
Kevin Harvick has a fast car. On the average speed chart he ranked 3rd. I don’t think their car is a 100% to their liking but he’s good for a top 10.
Starting Position:
16th (PROS Rankings Chart)
Average Practice Speed Rankings:
3rd (Average Practice Speed Chart)
PROS Ranking:
9th (PROS Rankings Chart)
Chassis Selection:
Kevin Harvick will be piloting a new chassis this week.
Pit Stall Location:
Kevin Harvick has pit box #37. Stephen Leicht (start and parker) is pitting behind him and David Gilliland is pitting in front of him.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Kevin Harvick finished in 8th in July. That’s pretty reflective of how good he was (8th place average running position, 9th place PROS Rankings). He was OK but not great. He had nothing for the Hendrick cars or Denny Hamlin. Now that Gil Martin is back and the performance level of the #29 is higher I think he could potentially challenge for a top five. Last year the #29 wasn’t very good here but in 2010 they finished 5th in both races. In 2006 when New Hampshire was the Chase opening race Harvick started first and finished 1st. Harvick has been good on similar tracks this season. He finished 2nd at Phoenix and a few weeks ago at Richmond he finished 10th.
[hr]
Kasey Kahne
What to expect / Areas of concern:
Kasey Kahne won earlier this year at Loudon but I don’t think his car is as good this time around. In Happy Hour they made a lot of adjustments but then they reversed them. One area of possible concern is the fact that not in a single practice session did he run 10 consecutive laps. On the average practice speed chart he only ranked 19th.
Starting Position:
6th
Average Practice Speed Rankings:
19th (Average Practice Speed Chart)
PROS Ranking:
2nd (PROS Rankings Chart)
Chassis Selection:
Kahne is driving the chassis he won with in July here.
Pit Stall Location:
Kasey Kahne has pit stall #19. Michael McDowell is pitting behind him and he has a clear exit out of his pit box.
What I said about him earlier this week:
We all remember how good Kahne was in July. He started on the outside of the front row and won. Kasey was solid all race long and had a 3rd place average running position. I think it should be noted that he didn’t have the best car, Denny Hamlin did. If it wasn’t for Hamlin’s 4 tire pit stop mistake it’s likely Kahne would have never even led (Yahoo! Chart comparing the two). Last year in the New Hampshire Chase race Kahne was really good. He started 2nd, led 43 laps and finished 15th. Late in the race Kasey Kahne had to pit from third (Yahoo! Race Chart). As you can clearly see he had a top five car. If you want somebody on your team who qualifies good consider Kahne. In three out of the last five NH races he’s started 2nd.
