Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Charlotte 2 – Bank of America 500 (2012 Chase Race #5)

“The Big Three”

After the checkered flag waves on Saturday night, the 2012 Chase will officially be half over. No matter how many times ESPN (particularly Andy Petree) tells you that any driver still has a chance, let’s make one thing clear: this is a three-man race and it would take something catastrophic for Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, or Denny Hamlin not holding the trophy in Homestead. That being said, we’re focusing on Charlotte this weekend and it’s shaping up to be a good race. The track should change throughout the night and that means that we’ll have some comers and goers. Greg Biffle will lead the field to the green and the full starting lineup for the Bank of America 500 can be found by clicking here. In case you missed my practice speeds breakdown post, you can click here to view the average speeds.

Finish your fantasy season out strong with the help of the ifantasyrace advantage! Use the discount code “gofantasyracing” for 10% off.

My Probable Yahoo! Roster: Kyle Busch, Kasey Kahne, Mark Martin, Sam Hornish, Jr.
My Probable Yahoo! Bench: Jeff Gordon, Joey Logano, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Bank of America 500:
*Chase drivers marked in red* 

11. Mark Martin – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Mark Martin showed a whole bunch of speed in the practice sessions on Friday (check out that overall average speed chart) but he’s been doing that all season long just to disappoint in the race. To put it simply: don’t look too far into how fast the #55 was on Friday. This team will have a very good shot at a top 10 finish in the Bank of America 500, but nothing close to a top 5. This team seems to have gotten over the engine issues and Martin has two top 5s and three top 10s in his last four starts in the Sprint Cup series. He ranked 11th in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average and was 2nd on  that same chart in the first practice session on Friday. This team is using the same chassis that they did here at Charlotte in the Coca Cola 600 earlier this season, and although Mark ended up 34th in that race, don’t let that fool you: he was solidly inside the top 15 all night until his engine gave out with about 60 laps to go. Martin hasn’t finished inside the top 10 at this track since 2010 but that could easily change on Saturday night.

12. Kevin Harvick – Starts 11th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Harvick has finished 11th or better in each of the last five Charlotte races, and there’s a good chance that that streak could extend to six on Saturday night. However,  I wouldn’t expect much more out of the #29 team. They’ve definitely turned things around a little bit here lately, but still haven’t completely turned the corner. Harvick still only has two top 10 finishes in the last eleven Sprint Cup races. Looking at this weekend specifically, the #29 car will start in the sixth row on Saturday night (which is actually Harvick’s best qualifying effort here since 2008) and looked pretty good in terms of average speed on Friday. However, like Greg Biffle, Harvick didn’t show up on either ten-lap average chart during the two practice sessions, and that’s a little concerning to me. I think it’s safe to say that Harvick will finish around 10th-place on Saturday night, not much better and not much worse.

13. Joey Logano – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

This is Sliced Bread’s best track on the circuit and he’s shown some good speed all weekend, so a solid top 15 is to be expected out of Logano on Saturday night. If they can adjust properly on this car throughout the Bank of America, Joey may be able to squeak out a top 10. In seven career starts here, Logano has an average finish of 10.3 and has finished 13th or better in all but one of those races. The #20 wasn’t overly impressive on the overall average speed chart and Joey was 19th in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average. Still, the other Gibbs Toyotas look solid this weekend and Logano is just a tick behind them. He had the 4th-best ten-lap average in the first practice session on Friday, which suggests to me that Logano will be super fast to start the race on Saturday. Hopefully crew chief Jason Ratcliff can keep up with the track as the night progresses.

14. Carl Edwards – Starts 19th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

At 12.3, Carl Edwards has the third-best average finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway among active drivers, which is part of the reason that he stayed in the top 15 of my rankings this weekend. The other reason is that Edwards finished 9th here back in May, which is good when you consider how this team’s season has went thus far. That being said, I don’t see Carl challenging for a top 10 on Saturday night, but it’s possible. He had the 10th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour and wound up middle-of-the-road on the overall average speed chart. Edwards has finished 9th and 3rd in the last two Charlotte races but finished between 12th and 16th in the three events prior to that. I’d expect the latter to happen in the Bank of America before the former. It also doesn’t help that the #99 qualified 19th.

15. Aric Almirola – Starts 17th – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Almirola has had a tendency to disappoint all season long, so take this ranking with a grain of salt. This team hasn’t finished better than 17th since early June, but on a positive note that 17th-place finish came at Chicago last month, another intermediate track. I think there’s a little bit of speed in the #43 car this weekend, and Aric did bring home a 16th-place finish here back in May. He was pretty good on the overall average speed chart and Almirola had the 8th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. I’m being a little optimistic here but I think that the #43 could challenge for a top 15 on Saturday night. Almirola should, at worst, be a top 20 pick.

Those To Avoid For The Bank of America 500:

Tony Stewart – To put it simply, Tony Stewart hasn’t been very good at Charlotte Motor Speedway since it was re-paved in 2007. In the nine races since that time, Stewart has just one top 10 finish–and that won’t change on Saturday. Smoke will start the race from 32nd spot but he has a car that is much better than that. I’m expecting a top 15 out of the #14 team this weekend, but not much more. When it comes to a Chaser, you want a finish better than one in the teens, so that’s why you should avoid Tony.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – Next year’s Rookie of the Year had a nice finish in his first Cup start at Charlotte back in 2011, ending up 11th after starting 9th. I emphasize the word finish in that previous sentence. Stenhouse ran around in the 20s for most of that race (Yahoo! chart here) and, if memory serves me correctly, really only got back up to 11th because the race came down to fuel mileage. Still, Stenhouse qualified 29th for Saturday night’s race, and although I do think he has a better car than that, it’s not by much. His ten-lap averages during both practice sessions on Friday were about 4 MPHs slower than the leader’s each time. Basically, don’t buy any hype that people may be throwing out about Ricky this weekend.

Regan Smith – Speaking of hype… Regan Smith has turned into NASCAR’s favorite “feel good story” since it was announced that he was taking over the #88 this weekend in place of concussed Dale Earnhardt, Jr. He then turned some heads in Happy Hour by posting the 2nd-fastest lap and the 2nd-fastest ten-lap average. Some so-called experts (ahem, Andy Petree) event went as far to say that Regan Smith has a shot to win the Bank of America 500 on Saturday. If you believe that, I have a bridge for sale. Smith has a pretty good shot at a top 15 this weekend and an outside shot at a top 10, but nothing more. Regan has one top 20 finish in seven career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Yeah, he’s in much better equipment this weekend, but a strong run in this particular races requires both a good car and a bunch of talent. I’ll believe it when I see it out of Regan Smith.