Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Las Vegas – Kobalt Tools 400

11. Greg Biffle – Starts 5th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

It’s Greg Biffle and it’s a 1.5-mile race track, what’s not to like? He finished 3rd in this race last season and has posted six top 10 finishes in the last eight Las Vegas races. Going into Sunday’s Kobalt Tools 400, though, I think the #16 is right on the outside of the top 10 speed-wise. Biffle was 10th-fastest in Happy Hour and never made a ten-lap run during either practice on Saturday. He was pretty strong in the second test session on Thursday, though, and Roush-Fenway Racing has been the third-best organization at Las Vegas over the last two years (not that that should be surprising). Biffle has a great pit stall for the race on Sunday and depending how this team adjusts on the car during the race, could end up being a challenger for a top 5. This ranking might be a little too low for The Biff but there are ten drivers that I like more than him going into the race on Sunday. It’s never a bad move to “stick with The Biff” on the intermediate tracks, though.

12. Tony Stewart – Starts 9th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The whole Stewart-Haas organization seems a little bit off to me this weekend, and the #14 Chevrolet is no exception. Smoke struggled during the first practice session on Saturday (enough that I barely paid attention to him) and seemed to be guessing on the setup. He ended up 30th-fastest. In Happy Hour, Stewart was a little better, posting the 18th-best lap. He had a couple good things to say about the car on Saturday, though, so he may be sandbagging. I really have no way of knowing that for sure, though. Stewart won this race last season and finished 2nd here in 2011, so it’s hard to go against him this week. He led a whopping 290 laps in those two races combined, too. That being said, just going purely off of speed, I think there are better options this week instead of Tony Stewart. A top 10 is possible out of the #14 on Sunday but I wouldn’t expect much more. If you’re really on the fence about picking Smoke, check out the crew chief notes that come out on Sunday afternoon.

13. Mark Martin – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Yep, Mark Martin burned me last weekend, too. It’s becoming more of an expected happening, but there’s always a chance he’ll actually finish a race. Like last week, though, I’ll warn you: don’t get too caught up in the #55’s speed. As usual, Martin thinks he has one of the best cars in the field at Las Vegas this weekend, which may be true. He laid down the 5th-fastest lap in Happy Hour and was the only driver to get somewhat close to Kyle Busch’s blazing fast ten-lap average in that session (Kyle was at 185.647 mph while Martin was at 184.380 mph). What Mark lacks is aggressiveness, and that’s why he usually ends up with bad finishes. Also, occasionally the crew makes a very dumb call, like deciding to pit with only a few laps to go at Phoenix last week–but that’s a different conversation. Martin finished 18th here last season and 18th here in 2011. While I don’t expect him to be quite that bad, a top 10 would really surprise me from this team. It’s possible, though.

14. Paul Menard – Starts 17th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Menard had a really strong Happy Hour session on Saturday that really made me take notice. He ended up 9th-fastest during that hour and had the 5th-best ten-lap average. Once I did some research, however, I was pleasantly surprised with his recent performance at Las Vegas, too. Over the last three years, Menard has gotten progressively better, going from 17th in 2010, to 12th in 2011, to 7th last season. Will he improve again on Sunday? I don’t think so, but it’s possible. These tracks are Paul’s strength and his team mate, Kevin Harvick, has had a rocket ship underneath him for pretty much the entire week. Richard Childress Racing hasn’t been very good at this track as of late, but I’m expecting that to change on Sunday. Menard is worth a shot in most leagues this weekend, in my opinion, and you’ll definitely see him on at least a few of my rosters.

15. Denny Hamlin – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Hamlin spun in Happy Hour but he didn’t really hit anything so the damage to the #11 Toyota was minimal, if there was any at all. He still went back out there and ended up with the 16th-best lap of the session, which isn’t terrible. He ran 29 laps total during Happy Hour. Speed-wise the #11 has been up and down for much of the week, but Denny gets the nod over a few other guys because of his starting position. Hopefully it’s not hard to pass again on Sunday, both for the sake of the fans as well as for Hamlin’s checkbook. Denny has never finished worse than 22nd in seven career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and he has finished inside the top 10 in four of them. He’s never had a real great car here, though, as evidenced by his career-best 92.6 driver rating in the 2007 race. Statistically this is Hamlin’s 10th-best track on the circuit. Considering he is an “elite” fantasy driver, I think it would be wise to let Hamlin off of your rosters this weekend.

Sleepers To Consider For The Kobalt Tools 400:

Juan Montoya – One name that has been consistently near the top of the speed charts all weekend is Juan Montoya. In the two test sessions on Thursday, he laid down the 7th- and 10th-fastest laps, and then on Saturday the #42 ended up 13th in Happy Hour after laying down the 12th-fastest lap in first practice. There’s always quite a bit of risk in picking Montoya on the oval tracks, but isn’t that why we call them sleepers? JPM’s best finish at Vegas came in 2011 when he ended up 3rd. He’ll roll off the grid in 25th on Sunday but I think a top 15 is attainable for this team, and he might be worth a shot in some deeper leagues.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – Stenhouse has finished 12th and 16th in first two career Sprint Cup races and I think we could see something similar from this #17 team again on Sunday. Due to NASCAR’s rules on qualifying getting rained out, Ricky will start the Kobalt Tools 400 from the 7th position, which is exactly where he ended up on the speed chart in first practice. During Happy Hour, Stenhouse regressed a little bit and posted the 19th-quickest lap. I do think he is better than that this weekend, though, and a top 15 finish is very possible for this team. Matt Kenseth has visited victory lane twice at this track in this #17 car.

Those To Avoid For The Kobalt Tools 400:

Ryan Newman – Surprisingly enough, Ryan Newman is one of only three drivers that have been able to post top 5 finishes in each of the last two races at Las Vegas. However, I would put the chances of that extending to three on Sunday at slim-to-none. This #39 Chevrolet doesn’t have the most speed and “The Rocketman” had quite a few complaints about the handling during Happy Hour. He was able to post the 15th-fastest lap in that session, but I like quite a few more drivers other than Newman as far as a top 15 goes. He may be able to luck into a good finish but this isn’t the week to take a chance like that. It’s worth noting that someone on SPEED Channel said that it has been 21 races on 1.5-mile race tracks since Newman has recorded a top 10.

Jeff Gordon – This isn’t an “avoid like the plague” ranking, but I just think there a lot more better options than the #24 this weekend. Gordon starts 10th thanks to the rule book but I wouldn’t expect to see him stay up there very long once the green flag waves. This team was never able to post a fast lap during the two extensive test sessions on Thursday and on Saturday, the best Jeff did was 22nd-fastest (in Happy Hour). His track record here shows that he’s either really good or really bad, and I’d say the latter is much more likely this weekend.