Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Bristol – Food City 500
The JGR/KB Show
So far this weekend, pretty much every on-track activity has been dominated by not only Kyle Busch, but the entire Joe Gibbs Racing organization. The engine woes that dominated news headlines for the first two weeks of the season seem like year-old news right now, which is something that fantasy racers need to do sometimes (forget quickly). As usual, Ryan put together very informative practice notes for each of the three sessions this weekend, and those can be found here: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. If you’re looking for the actual practice speed charts, including ten-lap averages, those can be found with a simple click of the mouse here: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Kyle Busch was fastest in qualifying on Friday for Sunday’s Food City 500, which is actually his first career pole at Bristol, believe it or not. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Finally, as of right now, there’s a 40% chance of rain on Sunday and a 70% chance on Monday, meaning it’s possible this race could get postponed until Tuesday. I’d highly recommend following Brian Neudorff on Twitter for all weather information this weekend. He really is top notch.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Food City 500:
11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 32nd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I had some real high hopes for Junior coming into this race. He’s generally a “hot starter,” and the 2013 season is no exception, as the #88 Chevrolet has been solidly inside the top 10 in all three events thus far. It may be a little challenging for them to extend that streak to four on Sunday, though. Challenging, but not impossible. Earnhardt posted the 32nd-fastest lap in qualifying on Friday, so he’s going to have a lot of cars to pass to get to the front. Also, the leaders start lapping the rear of field incredibly quickly here (I think it only took the Nationwide series 15 laps today), so Junior has that to worry about, too. If Steve Letarte puts a bad setup in this car to start the race on Sunday, the day could go downhill very quick for both the #88 team and the #88’s fantasy owners. Now, after all that doom and gloom, let’s get to the good things about Earnhardt this weekend. Statistically Bristol is his best track on the circuit–yes, even ahead of Daytona. Dale has a career average finish of 11.8 here and has finished 16th or better in each of his last eight starts at this track. The reason I’m not overly concerned about him starting in the 30s on Sunday is because qualifying isn’t Earnhardt’s specialty. In fact, he hasn’t had a top 10 start here at Bristol since 2003. This weekend is reminding me a lot of Phoenix a couple weeks ago when the #88 looked terrible for most of the weekend only to wind up with a very solid car by the time the checkered flag waved. As long as Junior can stay on the lead lap (or in the lucky dog position) he should have a good finish on Sunday.
12. Joey Logano – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Joey Logano seems to over-estimate just how good his car is (example here after the race in Las Vegas last weekend) so make sure when you listen to what he says that you take it with a grain of salt. The #22 Ford has been pretty consistent on the practice charts this weekend, ranging from 10th-fastest in the first session to 16th-fastest in Happy Hour. Joey’s ten-lap average wasn’t great in the final practice but he did have the 3rd-best average in the second session, which is promising. What’s good for Logano is that he qualified 10th for Sunday’s Food City 500, his best qualifying effort of the season (thus far). The bad news? He was always able to qualify well here at Bristol while with Joe Gibbs Racing, but never raced like most people expected. Logano was able to grab his first career top 10 in Thunder Valley last August, though, so things could be turning around. It’s also worth noting that Penske isn’t too bad on this half-mile race track at all. Logano hasn’t finished worse than 16th here since early 2011 and I don’t see that changing on Sunday.
13. Jeff Burton – Starts 16th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I’m starting to think that Jeff Burton and this #31 team are trying something new this season. Generally, Burton rarely shows up on the speed charts and looks like a terrible pick all weekend–and nearly every weekend–but this is the second race in a row that he has looked like a decent pick. During the first practice session on Saturday, the #31 was 4th-fastest on the speed chart and had the 4th-best ten-lap average, and Jeff backed that up with the 3rd-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Does that mean he’ll be challenging for a top 5 come Sunday? Not at all, but Burton did wind up 6th in this event last season and has an average finish of 13.5 over the last eight races at Bristol.
14. Jamie McMurray – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
If I were to ask you, “which Sprint Cup driver has finished 11th or better in five of the last seven Bristol races?” Jamie McMurray would probably be one of the last people you considered, especially when you think of how terrible the 2012 season was for this team. This track was one of the bright spots for them last season, though, as they were able to notch finishes of 7th and 17th in the two events. Jamie Mac generally qualifies in the mid-teens when the series visits Thunder Valley, so it’s a good thing for him (and fantasy owners) that he was able to put the #1 Chevrolet on the 3rd row in qualifying on Friday. His practice speeds weren’t as strong, but track position is still something to consider at this half-mile track. McMurray’s ten-lap averages on Saturday weren’t great, but with the track position, he should be able to stay on the lead lap for most of the race and come home with a top 15 finish. He’s also coming off an excellent (and surprising) run in Las Vegas last weekend, which may give this team a little boost on Sunday.
15. Tony Stewart – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Smoke has led 1,355 laps at Bristol Motor Speedway (3rd-best among active Sprint Cup drivers) but, for some reason, since Stewart-Haas Racing was formed in 2009, this place has just been bad news for Stewart. He finished 2nd in the spring race in 2010 but in the seven other races has failed to finish better than 14th. Even more surprising? He’s led only 3 laps here since 2008. Tony qualified 8th for Sunday’s Food City 500 so I’m giving him a little bit of the benefit of the doubt with this ranking. His practice times were borderline terrible, but Smoke tends to not show his hand in practice at all. He finished 14th in this event last season and I think another top 15 is attainable for the #14 crew on Sunday–but not much better than that.
Sleepers To Consider For The Food City 500:
Casey Mears – I’m sure a lot of people were surprised to see Mears’ name inside the top 15 when qualifying was over on Friday, but when you think about it, it’s not entirely surprising. Casey did put this #13 car on the pole in last August’s Bristol race, in case you forgot. He led 26 laps and finished a respectable 21st that day, the first car one lap down. This weekend, in addition to laying down a pretty good qualifying lap, Mears has been “better than normal” in practice. He ended up 17th in Happy Hour and actually had the 12th-best ten-lap average in that session. In deeper leagues I think the #13 would be a pretty good pick this week, and right now I have Mears ranked inside the top 25.
David Gilliland – Another guy with a strong showing during qualifying on Friday was David Gilliland. The #38 Ford will start in 14th on Sunday and could surprise some people. Gilliland laid down the 3rd-best lap in the Happy Hour practice session and had the 6th-best ten-lap average, too. Like Mears, in the deeper leagues, Gilliland would be a gold mine this week, and he’s actually been pretty consistent at Bristol over the years: he finished 20th in the fall race last season and hasn’t finished worse than 27th at this track since joining Front Row Motorsports in 2010 (that says a lot). Top 20? Possible. Top 25? Very likely.
A.J. Allmendinger – The Dinger wasn’t very impressive in qualifying (he’ll start 29th) but this #51 team has been working on the car all weekend and making it better, which is good news. The key to A.J. getting a decent finish on Sunday will be staying on the lead lap. If there’s a long green flag run to start the Food City 500, then he could run in to some difficulties. If not, however, he should be able to at least get a top 20 for fantasy owners. Allmendinger was 12th-fastest in Happy Hour and has finished 12th and 17th in his last two Sprint Cup Series starts at Bristol. Also, don’t forget that this #51 team was able to salvage an 11th-place finish at Phoenix a couple weeks ago with Allmendinger driving.
Those To Avoid For The Food City 500:
Ryan Newman – The 2013 season has started out exactly the opposite of what most people predicted for Newman: he had a top 5 in the Daytona 500, a track where most fantasy racers avoid him, and now has back-to-back finishes of 38th or worse at Phoenix and Las Vegas. It would take a potentially race-winning car for me to put the #39 on any roster this weekend, and that just isn’t the case. “The Rocketman” has finished 12th or better in seven of the last nine events here, but I just don’t see that happening this weekend. He qualified 31st on Friday and wasn’t able to post any fast lap in any practice whatsoever.
Greg Biffle – The Biff has under-performed two weeks in a row now and Bristol is not a track that I want to take the risk of him maybe turning things around. He has been pretty solid at this track in the past (12.2 career average finish in twenty career starts) but in the last three races here Biffle hasn’t been able to finish better than 13th. That being said, he has led 82 laps in the last two. Still, the #16 Ford will roll off the grid in 24th on Sunday and I just think there are a lot more options this weekend that would be better picks than Biffle. This team’s best effort of the weekend thus far came in Happy Hour where Greg ended up 11th on the speed chart.
